tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-69207212024-03-03T06:29:15.958-05:00JamesPPinkerton.USThis is the home page for James P. Pinkerton. I'm a writer for various publications, and a consultant to various causes. I am the former co-chair of the RATE Coalition, a former columnist for Newsday, a former contributor to the Fox News Channel. Way back when, I worked as a domestic policy and political aide in the White Houses of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.comBlogger94125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-4562424665965078322024-03-03T06:27:00.004-05:002024-03-03T06:28:43.620-05:00The Secret of Directional Investing <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6TpDRVOkIwbEaIBE81KrMpQdiOYPhNsbJTBnZAAHY3VzRr14yb5E0n09o1y2s_JIocLDQ9pFW4T8PTCqwWBccDOwUqnlhAaO-nW2bNlt7Rb30aFJWIuZNosCGAD3NvIjxK3MIt_9ha4BOGgh8ZBUJLQRT8JQhfVasPPSFusfWBP1qBz1RXEeVyQ/s1500/71ZsUyVlnBL._SL1500_.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="1000" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6TpDRVOkIwbEaIBE81KrMpQdiOYPhNsbJTBnZAAHY3VzRr14yb5E0n09o1y2s_JIocLDQ9pFW4T8PTCqwWBccDOwUqnlhAaO-nW2bNlt7Rb30aFJWIuZNosCGAD3NvIjxK3MIt_9ha4BOGgh8ZBUJLQRT8JQhfVasPPSFusfWBP1qBz1RXEeVyQ/s320/71ZsUyVlnBL._SL1500_.jpg" width="213" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><span class="a-text-bold" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;">To know the trend, spot the trend, or shape the trend is to make money.</span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />The trend is your friend—investors know that. But the biggest money comes from the biggest events. The more delta, the more alpha.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />In that spirit, </span><span class="a-text-italic" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-style: italic; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;">The Secret of</span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"> </span><span class="a-text-italic" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-style: italic; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;">Directional Investing</span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"> offers a new way of thinking about investing, steeped in culture and history. Focusing on megatrends--most obviously. the Red-Blue rumble--this book points out ways to profit from an understanding of two kinds of trends: those that can be spotted, and those that can be shaped. There’s money in both. The Romans weren’t kidding when they said, </span><span class="a-text-italic" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-style: italic; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;">Audentes Fortuna luvat</span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;">—Fortune favors the bold. </span><span class="a-text-italic" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-style: italic; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;">The Secret of</span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"> </span><span class="a-text-italic" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-style: italic; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;">Directional Investing</span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0f1111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"> is a bold look at investments and potential investments.</span></span></p><p style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="color: #0f1111; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(15, 17, 17);"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Secret-Directional-Investing-Making-Red-Blue/dp/B0CM27HGZC/ref=sr_1_4?crid=3F9C6NYZ3IL0L&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.eqXzO_BWI13EkW5sh0h53ewynOHdq7wB4_eLU3sJ0gA8EItAAtgunH4TbrAhYU25IjbKeGOqcmqlmpYyhW1AaloFEKm_w1oM_kvaBeahlu4F0VYjAvLPULju2eNy3H5LzHihLCEqxQQEbdpPxYjRYjxH2zUGCLnH4zSaTJvP5ySNGZsL-ggMDMSY9fHJUHyihNacPwRxRPbNosXmmfpYmxhHHLt5QIBxYJzbIkzXyPA.QgyOhJBOGk6IqH9Y3PX4-LUyPXaIpnZkl96r_xINRqc&dib_tag=se&keywords=james+pinkerton&qid=1709465052&sprefix=james+pinkerton+%2Caps%2C73&sr=8-4">Amazon link here</a>.</span></span></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-84518434658777213782024-01-07T10:25:00.017-05:002024-01-07T15:23:44.957-05:00Pledges for Good Action: The Arizona Case Study<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> Tenth in a series </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeBdYfoV5r3E4QQfFIkZgbgTSlJ6Z9ZKowmTTYHX1L1RTHvyrQ_FAeYqG-4ojPNVpulh5Ku6bKucAd05aHGhyIKXY5daFOyubOYiTrSnHgDB8MkQXHJCYNrc_uNYhBdDyg7s144yiQeT2Rir4krvRz6sRMZo1ei8QhsrBLsz_gw2KbYKFrHYlZTg/s1016/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-07%20at%2010.02.22%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="1016" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeBdYfoV5r3E4QQfFIkZgbgTSlJ6Z9ZKowmTTYHX1L1RTHvyrQ_FAeYqG-4ojPNVpulh5Ku6bKucAd05aHGhyIKXY5daFOyubOYiTrSnHgDB8MkQXHJCYNrc_uNYhBdDyg7s144yiQeT2Rir4krvRz6sRMZo1ei8QhsrBLsz_gw2KbYKFrHYlZTg/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-07%20at%2010.02.22%20AM.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Having outlined the theory of our case—politicians should make specific pledges on policy issues, and like-minded voters should reward them for it, making the whole transaction as tight as possible—let’s apply it to a specific policy issue: <i>water desalination</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And let’s go to a specific state where abundant water is desperately needed: Arizona. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Grand Canyon state, having seen its population grow <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/states/arizona/population"><span class="s1">ten-fold</span></a> in the last 70 years, should have more fresh water.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Given the generally arid nature of the Southwest, that almost certainly requires mass desalination—perhaps desalinated seawater being <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/23/arizona-mexico-water-pipeline-project/"><span class="s1">piped in from Mexico</span></a>, as has been suggested (the assumption being that California, which has been reluctant to desalinate water from the Pacific, would for sure never permit a trans-state pipeline). Arizona is hot and dry and growing--so of course it should have more fresh water.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> And lots of it. </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">One company that agrees is the Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC), which is now mostly in the real estate development biz.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In 2021, HHC <a href="https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2021/10/19/howard-hughes-buys-37k-acres-to-build-city-of-the-future/"><span class="s1">announced</span></a> that it had spent $600 million to purchased 37,000 acres of land west of Phoenix to build a “city of the future.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>However, in November 2022, something at least somewhat unexpected happened: the Democrat won the gubernatorial election, and, in addition, a Democrat won the attorney general post.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So a long spell, more than a decade, of Republican control of both offices was broken.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This partisan switch changed the dynamic of policymaking in the state.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Suddenly, the Arizona’s <a href="https://www.azwater.gov/1980"><span class="s1">Groundwater Management Act of 1980</span></a> came back into prominence. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">As a result, real estate developers, including HHC, were suddenly on the backfoot.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>As <i>The Wall Street Journal</i> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-arizona-home-builders-fight-to-show-theres-enough-water-for-new-residents-11670039318"><span class="s1">reported</span></a> in December 2022, “The Arizona Department of Water Resources is currently conducting a study of an underground basin to determine whether <a href="https://archive.is/o/sGR2p/https://www.wsj.com/articles/arizonas-dry-future-begins-as-colorado-river-shrinks-11650718801"><span class="s2" style="color: #0c5fa7;">the groundwater supply</span></a> is adequate to support the planned population for 100 years.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Yes, that’s how the law reads, but we can immediately see the problem: What’s foreseeable in a hundred years?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Answer: maybe death and taxes. But virtually everything changes, especially if technology is involved. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Arizona state senate president <span class="s1"><a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/legislature/2023/12/13/arizona-senate-president-warren-petersen-sits-down-with-the-gaggle-podcast/71898216007/">Warren Peterson</a> was both arch and incisive in his commentary on the groundwater bill:</span> “Why is it 100 years? Why isn’t it 105 years — why isn’t it 95 years? California’s (rule) is 25 years … You don’t go to the gas station and buy 100 years of gas.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And in the future, will cars run on gasoline?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Or perhaps hydrogen?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Or perhaps batteries?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Or something different altogether?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>It’s hard to answer such questions looking 10 years ahead, let alone 100.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Yet here we are: a law written decades ago by trendy limits-to-growth-types—the governor back in 1980, was the late Bruce Babbitt, a Jimmy Carter-ish green—is now being invoked for the same purpose: to limit growth.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> Many things have changed, technologically, and yet attitudinally, the Malthusian dead hand still has its grip on Arizona's throat. </span></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">We should all be assured HHC is not without political resources, and so, in fact, at least some of the project is <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2023/09/12/howard-hughes-corp-buckeye-residential-project.html?ana=knxv+%5Bbizjournals.com%5D"><span class="s1">going forward</span></a>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>But what’s needed for the sake of HHC and all the people of Arizona, including future residents—is a clear-cut vision of more water.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> The abundance that comes from the ocean as well as, of course, the fertile human mind. </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">So how to secure such abundance?</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> For starters, Arizona needs a better political framework for growth. And that means a rethinking of repressive, growth-inhibiting laws. Notably, the </span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">pro-abundance forces need a </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">mandate</i><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">A mandate, of course, from the voters.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">And if the voters grant it, then they, in turn, have a right to insist that the mandate—which could be rendered as a pledge—be fulfilled.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">That’s the essence of the idea advanced in the previous nine installments: politicians should take pledges on specific policies, and if the voters agree to support the policies, then a contract, of a moral kind, is established.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">The contract might not be binding in a legal sense, but it can be binding in a </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">political</i><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> sense.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">So woe to him who breaks it, as was the case with </span><a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/11/politicians-unaccountability-pledging.html" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="s1">George H.W. Bush</span></a><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">, who famously broke his “read my lips” contract in 1990, and was defeated, badly, in 1992.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Beyond the bad faith of political promisers, there’s the further complexity of the parties as they are constituted.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, they are so large, and so old that they have become “barnacled” with myriad interests and positions. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>There are historical and perhaps legitimate reasons for every position, and yet the cumulative effect is that the parties are hardly “pure plays.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, if one votes for the Democrat, or the Republican, chances are that the party will be so “bundled” on so many issues that it will be difficult, perhaps even impossible, to suss out a clear position on a single issue.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Once again, this is the nature of pluralism—people have different positions and priorities.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Yet our purpose in this series, Securing Elections and Good Governance, is to seek to “hack,” in a good way, the parties so that they can get better at identifying, making, and keeping promises. That's the way to improve politics: Tighten the connection between a politician's pledge and the actual follow-through: Make one follow the other, automatically. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So the parties will be less messy bundles and more clean pledge machines, for the sake of making a best offer to the voters.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> I</span>f the voters accept the offer, then the party follows through. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In our time, Arizona’s new Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, has sought to avoid the water issue: on the one hand, she doesn’t want to get in a fight with the greens who are so powerful in the Democratic Party, on the other hand, she doesn’t want to get in the way of growth.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So she says that the state <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/why-a-100-year-supply-how-arizona-got-its-famous-yet-arbitrarily-numbered-groundwater-rule/ar-AA1m35oG"><span class="s1">“plenty of water,”</span></a> and leaves it at that.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Plainly, Arizona does not.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So now, looking ahead, what are the chances that such a contract on water desalination can be executed in Arizona?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>We can start with a look at the recent context.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Where was the desalination issue in the past?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Answer: It simply wasn’t prominent.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In Arizona, Republicans were somewhat in favor of desal, and yet it was hardly a top issue for them in 2022.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And in any case, as we have seen, the Democrat, Hobbs, won won the governorship that year. </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To actually get the Arizona desal project built will enormous amounts of what physicists call <i>activation energy.</i><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And energy comes from elections.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Most likely, we need another election--and probably more than one--to break the legal logjam on desalination, as with so many other growth issues.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">But let’s start with the election in front of us: the Arizona senatorial election, to be held this November.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">The incumbent senator, Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat-turned-independent, has </span><a href="https://www.sinema.senate.gov/strengthening-arizonas-water-infrastructure-sinema-introduces-stream-act/" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="s1">supported desalination</span></a><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> as an option, but it seems fair to say that she hasn’t made a big deal of it; one scans the news </span><a href="https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=kyrsten+sinema+desalination&FORM=HDRSC7" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="s1">in vain</span></a><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> for signs of recent action.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> In the meantime, the </span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Ruben Gallego, is more of a </span><a href="https://rubengallego.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/gallego-introduces-legislation-to-keep-arizonas-water-in-arizona-and-crack-down-on-water-abuse" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="s1">progressive green</span></a><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">; he wants to tax water usage, revoke well-drilling permits, and generally figure out ways to ration the scarcity—ideas very much out of the Babbitt-Carter playbook. </span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To be blunt about it, Democrats just don’t seem to be that in to desalination. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> Instead, green ideology predominates. </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So now what of the likely Republican nominee this year, Kari Lake?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Lake, of course, lost to Hobbs in the high-profile 2022 gubernatorial election.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In that election, she supported desalination, but it was hardly front-and-center for her campaign.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>However, this time around, <a href="https://karilake.com/issues/water-for-the-west/"><span class="s1">she is emphasizing the issue</span></a>:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Kari Lake will make the development and construction of a system to deliver a new source of fresh water to Arizona and the West one of her major priorities. Kari knows there are multiple options that need to be explored, and the time to do so is now. </span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Lake continues, diving into specifics:</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">First, we need to form an engineering working group in partnership with the states, U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Land Management, and other appropriate agencies to examine engineering possibilities and challenges for each of the various options, to include desalination, river pipelining, and any other viable options to increase fresh water supply and availability throughout the Mountain West and Southwest.</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This is good clear thinking, offering real hope that Lake will make a difference on the desalination issue if she wins. And that's good news for Arizonans who worry about jobs and incomes and well-being. To be sure, even if she is elected, Lake will be one of just two senators from Arizona, and one of 100 in the Senate, and yet if she seeks a strong mandate on desal and wins, that will send a message: the voters care about this issue. And that could echo far beyond Arizona. Which, in turn, would make it likely that Arizona could achieve the larger consensus for action that any single state needs. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">We could help this process along. How so? For starters, by offering Lake opportunities, including venues, to amplify her desalination message. Any blue-collar worker, for example, should support desal for the jobs it will create. And homeowners should support it because it would allow for the amenities--including lawn sprinklers and swimming pools--that make life better. And HHC should love it. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">But the larger argument of this series is this: <i>This process should be formalized.</i> And further boosted by technology. That's where real strength comes from: Building a structure.</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;">It's great that Kari Lake has taken a strong pro-desal position in Arizona. But history tells us that we need more than one individual, however victorious and sincere. You need a movement. That's why political parties, and political machines, were created in the first place, and it should come as no surprise that every so often they need to be reinvented. That's what this whole series is about: reinventing electoral politics, mindful of the granular potential of CRM, AI, and all the rest.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">So in Arizona and in other states, there </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">could be a clear Desalination Faction that is so committed to desal that it becomes a force on its own to be dealt with: issuing reports and report cards, interviewing candidates, making </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">endorsements. And then, crucially, </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">delivering its votes to the chosen candidates and parties. </i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">That's the secret sauce of this whole idea: Our group can deliver votes. You can see them, meet them, and count them, in advance of the balloting, during the balloting, and after the balloting. This is how power is wielded and measured, and this is also how vote fraud is defeated. </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;">It's possible to see this Desalination Faction as a constituent within the Republican Party, as is mostly the case with Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform. But it's also possible to see it as an element within both parties, as was the case with pro-Israel voters, at least until very recently. Or it could be some sort of free-floating entity. The main point, again, is that it's entirely devoted to desal as an issue: doing it, protecting it, expanding it, and so on. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;">So this could be the template for new issues-based constituencies on a wide spectrum of issues. The parties could thus be composed of single-issue activists, always fighting (peacefully, legally) to make sure they get what they want, while forming coalitions to make sure they get a majority. That's how you not only win an election for your candidate, but win elections, plural, for your cause. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #094fd1; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 21px;"><span class="s1" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-82215076435054658492024-01-06T15:07:00.009-05:002024-01-06T16:13:51.874-05:00Want to Restore Election Integrity? End the Secret Ballot<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Ninth in a series</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKqDr6ADxQJMavyIFW8N1Jf1OfiRV-bKgeGy1PCVKUkffqJnenJUgENrqV5pDg4nKKDuvdAkjgsBYuPGbVUgjNUAQCHSE4ZZRThCKeYbV1_g1k9s1ksbZTWGiqjpsfwPDOH3JHkWp-HHew60XzsfEBROfSEw7_3h82m_1vm1IlbKb07GeQEdMm1g/s968/Screenshot%202024-01-06%20at%203.03.45%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="958" data-original-width="968" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKqDr6ADxQJMavyIFW8N1Jf1OfiRV-bKgeGy1PCVKUkffqJnenJUgENrqV5pDg4nKKDuvdAkjgsBYuPGbVUgjNUAQCHSE4ZZRThCKeYbV1_g1k9s1ksbZTWGiqjpsfwPDOH3JHkWp-HHew60XzsfEBROfSEw7_3h82m_1vm1IlbKb07GeQEdMm1g/s320/Screenshot%202024-01-06%20at%203.03.45%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Vote fraud is an issue that will never go away, and for good reason--there's plenty of vote fraud: from both parties, in virtually any year, in virtually any election. The Heritage Foundation provides a good resource <a href="https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud">here</a>. So what to do? <i>Make a tight linkage between the voter and the vote</i>. That might seem controversial, in light of the general sense that the ballot should be secret. But let's ask ourselves: Do most people wish to let you know for whom they voted? Sure. And can big data companies (Silicon Valley, credit card cos, cell phone providers) already pretty much intuit how you voted? Sure. And what of the NSA? Ditto. So anybody who really wants to know, already knows. So the secret ballot provides the space for fraud, more than it provides the sanctity of privacy. And of course, Republicans, notably, are generally eager to see some sort of mandatory ID check for voting. We can observe: the more the verification, the more the likelihood that voting <i>intention</i> will be known. </div><p>With these realities in mind, I <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2023/01/30/opinion-want-to-restore-election-integrity-end-the-secret-ballot-james-pinkerton/ ">published</a> this for <i>The Daily Caller</i> in January 2023. </p><p>There's no need to <i>mandatorily</i> end the secret ballot. We can leave the question to the discretion of each voter. However, it must be said that if the ballot is anonymous, then it can't be audited. In the final analysis--or in any sort of recount--there needs to be a firm linkage: <i>the voter and the vote. </i>If there isn't, then anything can happen. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Still, as for your voting <i>intention,</i> you might expect to have a right to privacy. In <i>theory</i>. But here’s the thing: If you’re online, you don’t in <i>practice</i>. Back in 1999, <a href="https://www.wired.com/1999/01/sun-on-privacy-get-over-it/">Scott McNealy</a>, then-CEO of Sun Microsystems, told reporters that concerns over privacy were a “red herring”—that is, a fake thing to worry about. “You have zero privacy,” McNealy advised, “Get over it.” McNealy’s words caused a storm, but let’s ask ourselves: Has the situation gotten better in the past quarter-century? Have the algorithms gotten smarter? Does Google know what you’re looking for as soon as you start typing? Does Siri or Amazon Echo seem to be listening, even when you haven’t asked it to? Are you relying on GPS and a mapping app to guide you places? If so, then you’re an open book. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To be sure, there are plenty of apps that help with privacy. And millions of Americans use these, often with good success. But here’s the thing: They <i>still</i> know all about you. Between the government—those <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/23/exclusive-kevin-mccarthy-day-one-of-republican-majority-were-going-to-repeal-87000-irs-agents/">87,000</a> new IRS agents will be put to good use—the banks, credit card companies, social media companies, and the app makers themselves, They (with a capital “T”) keep close tabs on all of us. So if we vote, They can probably figure out who we voted for. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And of course, with mail-in ballots, it’s not hard to know who voted for whom—the authorities can just look at the return address, even if they might have to peek a bit to see the “X.” </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So it’s a paradoxical situation: They <i>know</i> who we voted for, but we can’t <i>prove</i> who we voted for, because the balloting itself is officially anonymous. So maybe They are cheating, but unless we can catch them in the act, we can’t prove it. It’s in that gap—when the cat’s away—that the vote-fraud mice can play. To put the matter even more bluntly, if the voter doesn’t stand by his or her vote, someone else might wish to stand there, in his or her stead. </p><div><br /></div>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-90445606057596662652024-01-03T17:25:00.008-05:002024-01-04T10:59:01.000-05:00Securitization and Elections <p> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Eighth in a Series</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"> </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdp6ouv-N_KVJ7k6AgSYt-MpT8__HCeSVoYWz957HerZaKq1-fBX1QPXsj0jZr2wQEBu-nuUf4qWYRT1wZY1k8R2gmWiQjzmblKCjWzNwCg2lDOKilq5gguaF5yTKW7VNQDUSzkJPIvVTqPDpjGj-UxU37o6qH2tOx6ueqzkHPWxeM9HGEGm3wcQ/s386/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-03%20at%205.24.47%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="386" data-original-width="271" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdp6ouv-N_KVJ7k6AgSYt-MpT8__HCeSVoYWz957HerZaKq1-fBX1QPXsj0jZr2wQEBu-nuUf4qWYRT1wZY1k8R2gmWiQjzmblKCjWzNwCg2lDOKilq5gguaF5yTKW7VNQDUSzkJPIvVTqPDpjGj-UxU37o6qH2tOx6ueqzkHPWxeM9HGEGm3wcQ/s320/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-03%20at%205.24.47%20PM.png" width="225" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;">Securitization and Elections<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-inefficiency-of-campaigns.html"><span class="s1">installment three</span></a> of this series, "Securing Elections and Good Governance," we considered the intellectual revolution that occurred in another game of numbers: <i>baseball</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, the influence of Allan Roth, Bill James, Billy Beane, and all the other Sabremetricians, summed up in the popular culture by the book-turned-movie <i>Moneyball</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Now let’s look at another instance of numbers rethinking that can be applied to politics: <i>Wall Street-style securitization</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Investopedia <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/securitization.asp"><span class="s1">defines</span></a> it thusly: “Securitization pools or groups debt into portfolios.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The site adds, “Issuers create marketable financial instruments by merging various financial assets into tranches.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Okay, so securitization pools dollars (or other currency or asset-class) with an eye toward making the product as liquid and nimble as possible. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And so how might votes be analogous?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Here’s how.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet first, of course, a preface: <i>Nothing here is speaking of buying, or selling, or otherwise illegally transacting over votes.</i><span class="Apple-converted-space"><i> </i>Nobody here is talking about paying people to vote, or not to vote. Instead, wh</span>at’s being described here is a way of thinking about how voters vote, and how their votes can be most influential. All this at the legal and transparent behest of the voters themselves, with whatever legitimate assist--and importuning--from other political players, including activists and parties.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>All with the goal of a more honest and responsive system. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">For instance, in <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/10/voter-uncertainty-and-how-to-fix-it.html"><span class="s1">installment four</span></a> we considered how the voters could choose to hold themselves accountable, and in <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/11/politicians-unaccountability-pledging.html"><span class="s1">installment six</span></a> we looked at specific pledges on policy.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Nothing crooked or corrupt here, just honest thinking about how voters can organize themselves to achieve maximum individual and collective influence. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So now we can add the Wall Street element, because Wall Street, going back four decades, pioneered the idea of securitizing (also known as <i>collateralizing</i>) mortgages and other instruments.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>(Yes, this was a topic treated upon by the same Michael Lewis; long before <i>Moneyball</i>, he published <i>Liar’s Poker</i>.)</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Once we know we have a bloc of votes, we know we have something consequential.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And yes, it’s valuable to someone, most obviously, the candidate(s) in the race who wish to win.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>But also, of course, interest groups and factions of various kinds. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Suppose we have identified a bloc, or a tranche, of 10,000 people in a district (or other constituency, including a state or a nation), who feel really strongly about an issue. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>They are, to use a familiar phrase, <i>single-issue voters</i>. That issue (taxes, a la Grover Norquist, is one such issue, another issue is abortion, pro or con, and there are myriad others) is likely not the only issue the bloc cares about, but it is pre-eminent.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So if the political candidate is on the right side of that issue as the voting bloc defines it, it’s reasonable that the bloc will go with that candidate.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>It’s simple politicking: <i>We agree: vote for me.</i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><i></i><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">What’s evolved are the mechanisms by which that voting bloc can be identified, and tended, and mobilized.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> And that mobilization can take on forms both old and new. For instance, if voters were to agree to vote as a bloc, that would greatly enhance their power, in the same way that the electoral college enhances the power of a given state. If, say, Georgia votes 51:49 in a presidential election, that narrow margin is exaggerated by the electoral college to be 16 electoral votes for the winner, and zero for the loser. This all-or-nothing voting is a well recognized phenomenon in political science; it's the sort of power that team play--even among a team of rivals--can exert. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As we have discussed, and will discuss, vote blocs can be identified using all manner of digital tools, from social media (which is always happy to sell data on its users) to customer relationship management (CRM) software to, perhaps blockchain-y smart contracts.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Plus, of course, whatever emerges from AI. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Once again, no technological development should obviate the basic constitutional principles of free, fair, and uncorrupt elections, and yet the voters may choose to avail themselves of new technology. And so, for example, CRM could be used to manage a pledge--such that voters having taken the pledge might feel a psychic obligation to vote with their freely chosen fellows. This is teamwork in action. Nothing coercive or crooked, but there's nothing wrong with camaraderie and cohesion. So this is the sort of power-bloc-ing that could be extended from the electoral college to more common elections, including primaries: the winning candidate gets the benefit of the bloc. </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">These days, a good campaign has a good handle on its base voters; the challenge is then two-fold: making sure they <i>all</i> vote, and making sure that the total is enough to win.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Enter the new tech and the sense of the larger political market. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Here’s where thinking of blocs, or tranches, comes to mind: What does it take to make a bloc really good, or not so good, or bad?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>How does one “grade” it?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>By voting reliability or propensity?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>By ease of being able to pivot, from one issue, or one personality, to another? <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Sophisticated analysis will soon enough come up with a rating system that covers all these variables (already has, in fact, in many ways, albeit mostly hidden behind proprietary siloed). <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And when that happens, the market for advertisers and other interested parties will become fully liquid.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>As in, an interested party—say, again, a group interested in taxes, or abortion, or just about anything—will see that there’s an “AAA” bloc of votes in X district.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That bloc might be big enough to affect a party primary, or perhaps even a general election.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> Because, as we saw in the <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/11/money-in-politics-money-in-america-and.html">previous installment</a>, there <i>is</i> a lot of money in politics. </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So because of all these millions, billions, and trillions, a marketplace will emerge. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Once again, it’s all transparent, not just to “investors,” but to stakeholders and scrutinizers.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>All federal and other regulations would still apply.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>It’s just now that we’ve created a new way of thinking about trading money and votes, based on the honest and ethical interest and self-interest of the voters, as individuals and as a group. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-85887991203185024822023-11-13T22:20:00.013-05:002023-11-14T06:37:30.634-05:00Money in Politics, the Economy of America--and Wealth For the Future <p> Seventh in a series</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQYY3hW9cgMl6AFtDQTZPLN8ODc4lFDZbrmHPPeTiUwB7TMQqQ7du6HMktndEAYpxs7Hn7JMzZan76HtDUb_hNGrpkWoPQbeunHSrsedSbRuZmABZiB0vgotpp4qlFYvzu5ZCx6TaoVs2b8Bpg7HGQRSwYROG9kkH5-skjXspmN9s6bl2QeoeuUQ/s382/Unknown.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="132" data-original-width="382" height="111" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQYY3hW9cgMl6AFtDQTZPLN8ODc4lFDZbrmHPPeTiUwB7TMQqQ7du6HMktndEAYpxs7Hn7JMzZan76HtDUb_hNGrpkWoPQbeunHSrsedSbRuZmABZiB0vgotpp4qlFYvzu5ZCx6TaoVs2b8Bpg7HGQRSwYROG9kkH5-skjXspmN9s6bl2QeoeuUQ/s320/Unknown.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">There’s money in politics, and there’s money in America—and there’s a lot more of the latter. And then there’s all the money in the <i>future</i>, of which there’s <i>really</i> a lot more. So politicians—and those who wish to invest according to political trends—should pay most attention to those political changes that will vector out to big gains in the future. And that means getting the voters, too, to think about what’s best for them, with longer time horizons. Let’s dive in. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Money in Politics </b></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">According to <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/02/2020-cycle-cost-14p4-billion-doubling-16/">Open Secrets</a>, Americans spent $14.4 billion on the 2020 elections. That’s for sure a lot of money, and yet to this election participant and observer of more than four decades, the dollar total seems low. In fact, Open Secrets only counts direct expenditures by Presidential and Congressional candidates. So what of all the governors and state legislators? What of all the “soft money” and “dark money”? And what of the in-kind value of campaign efforts, be it handing out leaflets, calling in to a talk radio station, or posting on Facebook? Obviously to assign values to all those undertakings would be maddeningly difficult, and the numbers still would be, at best, guesstimates. But if we had to, let’s come up with a dollar total: let’s double that $14.4 billion and then round it off, upward, to $30 billion. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Okay, so $30 billion is a big number, and yet here’s something interesting: relative to the economy, it’s still a tiny number. Consider: The GDP of the U.S. in 2020 totaled about $21 trillion, and so $30 billion is 0.14 percent. For clarity, that’s <i>one-seventh of one percent</i>. To put the money-in-politics number a different way, there are more than <i>250</i> publicly traded companies in the U.S. boasting a <a href="https://companiesmarketcap.com/usa/largest-companies-in-the-usa-by-market-cap/?page=3">market capitalization greater than $30 billion</a>. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Once again we can see: while the amount of “money in politics” might seem big, in the scheme of things, it’s rather small. And that’s a wee bit strange, as the political system exerts much leverage on the U.S. economy—$21 trillion in 2020, and $26 trillion today—as well as the world economy, which, in total, is roughly quadruple the U.S. Moreover, the world’s total wealth is all the grander; McKinsey & Co. estimates the <i>planetary</i> total to be as high as <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-rise-and-rise-of-the-global-balance-sheet-how-productively-are-we-using-our-wealth">$1.53 quadrillion</a>. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet if we focus on the nearer term, we might ask ourselves: How much effect has Joe Biden’s victory had on various sectors within the U.S. economy. For instance, the green sector of the economy, including its ultra-capitalist cutting edge. How much more is that sector worth—all those solar panels and windmills, all those EV makers, all those software designers rejiggering the power grid, all those consultants and advisers? We might also venture to ask: What would the sector be worth if Donald Trump had been re-elected? Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act” was a sort of Green New Deal; Trump would never have touched that. We could go on and on, itemizing the economic impact of every choice Biden made that Trump wouldn’t have made—from abortion to education policy to defense spending—and see sectors that have won, or lost. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So if the economic impact of politics is so big, why are campaign donations so (relatively) small? Why haven’t investors upped the ante of campaign spending for the sake of their investments? We can cite five possible answers: </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>First</i>, there are restrictions on campaign donations, in terms of direct contributions to candidates, although, of course, soft money and dark money are pretty much designed to get around those limits.</p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Second</i>, there’s a certain reticence, even disinterest, about bidding up politico-economic outcomes (not total reticence or disinterest, that’s for sure, but some).</p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Third</i>, the investor class doesn’t see a pure play on campaign donations. That is, it’s fine to say that giving to Democrats will boost green energy, but Democratic victories will also bring all the other Democratic policies, from tax increases to more spending to wokeness. Does every investor/donor want all of <i>that</i>? Of course not. A similar critique could be made of the Republicans. Especially these days, they’re hardly a pure play investor party. If the GOP wins, you may see tax cuts—we saw a big one in 2017, thanks to party-line votes in the House and Senate—and yet you’ll also see Trump & MAGA, gun de-control, and abortion restrictions. On a lot of social issues, investors and big donors tend to be more secular, “country club,” or even outright liberal or left, and so they don’t want to fund conservative and right-wing social action that could even extend to the richest sector of the U.S. economy: Big Tech. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Fourth</i>, we can elaborate on this point about the parties, recalling the previous installment on the unaccountability of politics. Today the two major parties, Democratic and Republican, have become so barnacled and baroque that they are incapable of delivering a “pure play” on an investment agenda. (And the other parties are probably no better; they’re just minor.) In homage to investment legend Peter Lynch, who critiqued corporate “diworseification,” as a play on “diversification,” in his 1989 book <i>One Up on Wall Street</i>, we can apply that concept to politics. We can say that the parties suffer from <i>revealed diworseification</i>; that is, we’ve discovered that they have their fingers in so many pies that they no longer act coherently or predictably on key polices. In some sense, this is at should be; the American people are, after all, diverse—which means they are deeply divided. Reflecting that status quo, the parties are simply not configured to get big things done. That’s the reality today, but it doesn’t mean we have to accept it for the future. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Fifth</i>, regardless of party, the national political system is organized to thwart any “special interest,” no matter how valuable, from getting its way. That is, votes are filtered through not only the two parties and their diverse candidates, but also through offices at the federal, state, and local level. In addition, there’s the bureaucracy, which doesn’t always move quickly—and oftentimes doesn’t move at all. So even the most determined donor could be completely flummoxed, just by our distributed political system. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">For all these reasons, plenty of deep-pocketed individuals and entities have either sat it out, or have canceled each other out. It’s hard to say that they’ve made a mistake—everything is opportunity cost—and yet at the same time we can insist that they’ve missed an <i>opportunity</i>. An opportunity that could be huge. That’s what this whole 13-part series is about: <i>providing a new organizing principle for politics, based on efficiency and effectiveness.</i> Those are good businesslike virtues, and there’s no reason they can’t be harnessed to the cause of economic and business development, as well as political victory. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Money in America</b> </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As we have seen the GDP of the U.S. in 2020 was $21 trillion. In November of 2020, about 159 million people voted for president, including 81 million for Joe Biden, and 74 million for Donald Trump. (For our purposes here, we’re not going to get into allegations about vote fraud.) So if we were to take a holistic view of money in politics, and money in America, and the potential for political leverage on the economy, we could start by divide that $21 trillion GDP by the 159 million people who voted. If so, we get a sum of $132,000 per vote. Once again, we are <i>not</i> saying that each vote is monetizable like that, nor should it be. And certainly <i>nothing</i> we’re describing here concerns buying or selling votes, or non-votes. Instead, all we’re doing is illustrating the potential leverage. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet if we’re assigning a dollar number to votes, it can be argued that we need more nuance. Specifically, we might confine ourselves to “swing” voters, on the theory that “base” voters are fixed. So if we were to think of swing voters as marginal voters, then we could run our numbers in different ways: <i>first</i>, those who might swing between Democrat and Republican; and <i>second,</i> those who might swing between voting and non-voting. So now, if we look back at the last dozen presidential elections, 1976 to 2020, we see, <i>first</i>, that the widest “spread” in partisan presidential voting is 21.3 points, that being the difference between the 58.8 percent of the vote gained by Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the 37.5 percent of the vote gained by George H.W. Bush in 1992. (The range of Democratic percentages during this period was narrower.) And then, <i>second</i>, if we consider the change voter <a href="https://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present">turnout</a> over those same dozen presidential elections, we see that the range was between 51.7 percent of the <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2022/demo/p20-585.pdf">voting eligible population</a> in 1996 to 66.8 percent in 2020. With these numbers in mind, we might conclude that the swing vote, defined two ways, is perhaps a quarter of the population, which is around 240 million. So 60 million voters to think about. Still a huge number, but more manageable than the total number of voters. And $21 trillion divided by 60 million is on the order of $350,000 a vote. Again, that’s not directly monetizable, nor should it be. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet if we think this way, we are reminded that<i> elections have consequences</i>, including for investors. Moreover, as we get down to 60 million, we start to see numbers that might seem more comprehensible, manageable—and maybe even leverageable. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Money in the Future</b> </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As we saw earlier, McKinsey & Co. estimates the planetary total of wealth today to be as high as <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-rise-and-rise-of-the-global-balance-sheet-how-productively-are-we-using-our-wealth">$1.53 quadrillion</a>. And that ginormous “q”number is just wealth <i>at the moment</i>: Speaking of the near term, if our $26 trillion economy grows at two percent for 20 years, it will be worth $39 trillion in 2043; if it grows by three percent, it will be worth $47 trillion; if it grows by four percent, it will be worth $57 trillion. So yes, obviously: better policies mean bigger bucks. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add: What’s the future potential of wealth creation, with AI and space exploration and all the other wonders to come, just in the remainder of the 21st century? Open AI’s <a href="https://www.thefp.com/p/is-ai-the-end-of-the-world-or-the">Sam Altman</a> suggests that AI could yields a <i>100-fold</i> increase in wealth. This is the <i>real</i> money in politics: the money in the future, as it vectors out over the years, decades, even centuries. If the current political class fails to grasp these potentialities, well, maybe that’s why some new thinking is needed to encourage and bolster sound pro-growth thinking. Indeed, these possible numbers are so huge, potentially, as to defy any sort of quantification; about the only thing we know is that politics—including the politics-by-other-means known as war, could affect those numbers drastically; a bad enough war could reduce the economy, and the human population, to zero. So we are reminded: investing in sound politics is a good way to encourage the upside, <i>and</i> to fend off the downside. As the song says, accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In various writings, this author has considered some big-delta, big-alpha ideas, including <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesPPinkerton/status/1603440956014985217">desalinated water</a>, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2019/04/01/how_to_make_rural_america_great_again_470614.html#!">carbon capture</a>, <a href="https://www.bing.com/search?pglt=41&q=james+pinkerton+medical+cures+enterprise+zone&cvid=9730b552ef9a444e97a96efc84253003&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQ6wcYQNIBCTE0NTQ5ajBqMagCALACAA&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=U531">medical cures</a>, and accelerated <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/liveonline/00/politics/freemedia110300_pinkerton.htm">space exploration</a>. Each is a good idea, each would poll well enough by itself, and yet none of them are anywhere near the top of the national agenda. To be sure, there are plenty of competing issues, and yet it’s the American Way to politick, legally and peacefully, to move an issue up. So that’s what we should do, bringing new thinking, and new resources, into the equation. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In fact, it takes an enormous commitment to building a favorable framework for good goals—and we should do that, too. So there’s a mission right there: get politicians to think about using their power to galvanize economic activity. There’re whole books to be written about that topic, of course, and this author has <a href="https://www.target.com/p/the-secret-of-directional-investing-by-james-p-pinkerton-paperback/-/A-90283193">one forthcoming</a>, and yet for now let’s focus on <i>voters</i>, as part of this series on improving the political process. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Blast from the Past </b></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Back in 1980, Republican presidential candidate John Connally had an interesting proposal: <i>convert corporate tax payments into a dividend program for voters. </i> The idea was that if taxable corporate profits went up, so would the dividend to the voters, thus giving the voters a direct stake in the well-being of corporate America—and, by extension the American economy. (To some extent this is the idea of the Alaska Permanent Fund, which distributes oil profits to Alaskans, to the tune of several thousand dollars, per resident, each year.) </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Connally’s idea was attacked as "corporatism," and in a literal sense, it was just that. One of those attackers was the more libertarian Ronald Reagan (for whom this author was proud to work), who defeated Connally, handily, to win the 1980 GOP nomination. So that was pretty much the beginning and end of the corporate-dividend plan. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet even if the dividend idea has a poor political track record--to my knowledge, nobody at the national level has proposed it since--this Reaganite always thought it was an interesting idea, and thinks even better of it now. Why? Because corporatism, freed from sneer quotes, is actually the way of the non-communist world (that is, every country but maybe North Korea and Cuba). The economy consists of big corporations (which aren't going anywhere) and big government (which also isn't going anywhere). With those two realities in mind, it's appropriate to think of new ways for corporations and government work together, to form an updated social contract, mindful of new needs. Such a symbiosis need not come at the expense of individualism or personal freedom. Instead, it's a simple acknowledgement that free people often prefer to organize themselves as corporate leaders, employees, and shareholders. Corporatism, seen as the existence and prevalence of large companies (and small- and medium-sized companies) is a proven mechanism for producing wealth. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So with that in mind, let's always be looking for new ways of bringing people together while not jeopardizing personal freedom. Is it a bad idea to find new ways to encourage the citizenry to think in terms of the commonweal? And is it wrong to think that the citizens themselves should benefit when the economy's corporations are doing well? Is this not the makings of a new kind of stakeholder <i>civics</i>? No doubt there are other ways to cut people in on the action--the overall economy is, after all, the best and really only guarantor of well-being--and yet it can only help to offer people something immediately tangible (like a check) as well as other things more generally desirable. One of the strengths of Social Security, for example, is that there'a an actual "account" with one's own name on it. And while economists might insist that it's all an accounting fiction, Social Security is pretty darn popular. In that spirit, one can imagine that neo-Connally-esque profit sharing would be similarly popular. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We’ve been thinking hard about money <i>in</i> plitics, as well as economic growth <i>and</i> politics, and also the future wealth-effect <i>of</i> politics. In this spirit, let's examine all legal ways to include people in the wealth-generating impact of good policy. As a way of encouraging them to vote for politicians who advance said positive policies. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We will be spending the rest of this series pondering this question: <i>How to align votes with good policies?</i> In fact, in installment six we’ve already considered one mechanism, which is <i>pledges</i>. That is, if a politicians pledges a good policy, that’s good, and if the voter pledges ti support the politician who commits to good policy, that’s even better. Because now we’re starting to see the basis of a contract. Not necessarily a legal contract, but rather, a moral and political contract. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">A harmonic convergence of people and politicians, for the sake of the overall economic pie. There’s big money here. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><br />James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-80095533587122179062023-11-09T11:31:00.006-05:002023-11-09T11:46:07.840-05:00Politicians’ Unaccountability: Pledging a Solution <p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Sixth in a Series</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"> </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3gci95N9LeD9QFM9iY1fO_fe3ce5CtajiEN0whUj9KP4M1pYUPvq9g0gxz0jG2rIMzuoEGebih0pcubd3rsmgdY9Y8FqeKZm3GX3EGql0HihCC1z1Rc9Vs4Z-1P0o16h1CaplL0FBLPCPVgt-2NLdVnuB9G6-lxAKbB3enNE7LOyg2sMTozunPw/s719/pledge-0dc02616d162b046fbc9d4b48658eeaa5013c9ec.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="539" data-original-width="719" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3gci95N9LeD9QFM9iY1fO_fe3ce5CtajiEN0whUj9KP4M1pYUPvq9g0gxz0jG2rIMzuoEGebih0pcubd3rsmgdY9Y8FqeKZm3GX3EGql0HihCC1z1Rc9Vs4Z-1P0o16h1CaplL0FBLPCPVgt-2NLdVnuB9G6-lxAKbB3enNE7LOyg2sMTozunPw/s320/pledge-0dc02616d162b046fbc9d4b48658eeaa5013c9ec.png" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">In past installments, we’ve examined the issues of election legitimacy, campaign inefficiency, voter uncertainty, and media superfluity. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">Now let’s look at another problem, </span><i>politicians’ unaccountability</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">That is, how do we get politicians to keep their promises? </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";">How do restore trust?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"> One answer, as we shall see, is to make promises, in the form of pledges—and then keep them.</span></p></span><p></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>George H.W. Bush Breaks His Pledge </b> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">This author had the experience of working, for seven years—in his political action committee, in his presidential campaign, in his White House—for the modern political figure who is probably most famous for <i>breaking</i> a campaign pledge. That would be George H.W. Bush, who famously <a href="https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/georgehbush1988rnc.htm">said</a>, while accepting the Republican presidential nomination, “Read my lips. No new taxes.” Those sound-bite words were spoken on August 18, 1988, at the Republican convention in New Orleans. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In fact, candidate Bush had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1992/10/04/origin-of-the-tax-pledge/b669c4fc-79b2-4d2d-8289-c0398e3e2895/">pledged</a> not to raise taxes the year before, and that pledge had helped him to secure the GOP presidential nomination—fending off tax-cutter Jack Kemp and clarifying the difference with tax-raiser Bob Dole—as well as helped him win the presidency against Michael Dukakis, the governor of the Northeastern state dubbed “Taxachusetts.”</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet once in office, the 41st president was persuaded to break his no-new-taxes pledge by Office of Management and Budget director Richard Darman, who saw himself as the Henry Kissinger of fiscal policy. Bush was a good man, and overall, a good president, and yet he had never particularly believed in the no-new-taxes pledge; it went against his innate Wall Street-mindedness and his genteel aversion to California Reagan-Kemp-types. Yet it took Darman’s Svengali skills to bring Bush to abandon his promise.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Alas for the 41st president, Darman’s grand plan, so intricately conceived with help from the DC establishment, was not only cynical mendacity, it was also a failure. The deficit went <i>up</i> after the 1990 budget deal with pro-tax Democrats, even as Bush’s political standing went down. That plummet was disguised for a while by the surge in patriotic feeling from Operation Desert Storm, and yet by the end of 1991, Bush’s peril was obvious, and in fact, by 1992, Bush’s standing had collapsed. Having won nearly 54 percent of the popular vote in 1988, he fell to 37 percent of the vote years later; it was the most dramatic slide for an incumbent president in U.S history. And so Bush became a one-termer, bringing an era of Republican national dominance—seven victories in ten elections—to a close. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Looking back, we are reminded of the power of a pledge. At the time, as a mid-level White House domestic policy aide—albeit marginalized from the Darman tax negotiations, which I opposed—I joked that Bush could have done just about anything else, no matter how foolish, on domestic policy and suffered less blowback than he did for breaking the tax pledge. That is, the pledge was so clear that it was simply obvious that Bush had broken his word in a way that couldn’t be spun. Even ardent Bush loyalists had to admit he had, er, changed his mind. And plenty of people who simply assume that a promise is a promise took Bush to be a liar. That's why pledges, and oaths in general, have power: Regardless of policy wherefores, people like the truth, and they especially don't like to be lied to. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We should recall that the pledge was more than Bush’s words on the campaign trail, or even at the New Orleans convention. The pledge was also, in fact, a formal, albeit terse, document, composed by <a href="https://www.atr.org/pledge-database/">Americans for Tax Reform</a> (ATR), the policy group founded by conservative activist Grover Norquist. ATR and Norquist had brilliantly distilled anti-tax sentiment down to a tightly worded <a href="https://www.atr.org/about-the-pledge/">anti-tax pledge</a>. Bush had signed it in April 1987, as a way of further enunciating his conservative credentials. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, the pledge was, and is, so simple and clear that no amount of obfuscation could save a pledge-breaker from the realization that he or she had broken he pledge. To be sure, not everyone opposes tax increases, or even cares about the tax issue, either way. And yet for those who <i>do</i> care, the ATR pledge is clarifying. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Power of Pledges</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In fact, clarity is the friend of the issues-minded voter, but it’s not necessarily the friend of the politician, who often feels that he or she has more to gain from non-clarity. So the challenge to the issues-minded is to inject <i>reciprocity</i> into the process, so that the implicit-not-explicit “contract” between the electors (the voters) and the elected (the candidates) is upheld. That is, the voters and the politicians should both keep their promises, and be rewarded, politically. The voter should get what he or she wants (the position on the pledge, whatever it might be) and the politician should get what he or she wants (election victory, with the presumption that once in office the policy pledge will be kept). </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So we can see that pledge-based politics could be a valuable tool, both for campaigning and governing. In a sense, pledges are what campaign platforms used to be, but over the decades, platforms have become so bloated and wordy that they have lost their conciseness. And at the same time, pols have gotten better at being slippery. So that’s why policy-minded types are thinking more about pithy ATR-type pledges—or at least they should. Because, after all, Norquist and ATR have changed Republican politics in the past three decades; the GOP is much more firmly the anti-tax party.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add a possible refinement on the tax pledge, and other pledges: if the pledge is seen as going both ways, to the voter and to the candidate, it could help both sides of the political transaction. If the pol takes the pledge on an issue the voter cares about (such as taxes), the voter could pledge to vote for that candidate, or at least another candidate who has taken the same pledge. So that’s a way of enshrining trust. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Will this happen? It already has happened; how much more is up to the people and the pols. But we can see that if the pledge were expressed in those terms; it could be powerful. Such pledging might not be the stuff of a binding legal contract, but it could be a moral contract, or even, who knows, down the road somewhere, a blockchain-y <i>smart</i> contract. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Some will wonder: Could the ATR pledge model be extended to other issues? Some might argue that the tax issue is relatively straight-forward, in terms of a yea or nay vote, and yet as we know, nothing in politics, including fiscal politics, is simple. For instance, Norquist himself has been asked about closing loopholes—does that count as a tax increase that violates the pledge? Norquist’s answer has been that closing loopholes is okay, so long as there’s at least an equal cut in taxes or tax rates somewhere else. That’s a perfectly good response, and yet we can see how uncertainty, even controversy, can slip into the mix as to what is, and is not, a tax increase. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So what of other issues, foreign and domestic? Without hashing through all the hypotheticals, we can just say that it’s a challenge to pledge-penners. For the sake of their issue, their goal should be precision. Because we should keep in mind that politicians have often sought to perfect the art of letting things—especially unpopular things—happen without their “fingerprints.” That is, the process is set up to be “automatic,” or on “auto pilot,” such that, say, a tax increase happens even without anyone visibly voting for it. An example of this is “bracket creep” in income tax rates, as voters are pushed into higher payments due to inflation. And if that’s possible about taxes, imagine what’s possible about foreign policy. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Hypothecation Solution</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In fact, on many issues, the opinions of the voters don’t seem to matter. Back in 2014, the political scientists Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page concluded that voters have essentially <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B">zero impact on policy</a>: “The estimated impact of average citizens’ preferences drops precipitously, to a non-significant, near-zero level.” Sure, they can vote for whomever they wish, but <i>policy</i>, Gilens and Page argued, isn’t affected by the outcome of an election. Indeed, in times of polarization, if each side knocks the other out, we could see the onset of a sort of negative Nash equilibrium. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br />
So what’s the way out? One answer, as we have seen, is pledges. But there’s another answer from the policy world. As always, it’s best to identify, if we can, something promising that has already worked—and build on that. <br />
<br />
Here we can introduce a useful concept: <i>hypothecation</i>, also known as ring-fencing. “Hypothecated” is a two-dollar word for dedicated: the idea of hypothecated taxes is that revenue is specifically dedicated to a certain goal, such as a sales tax that’s exclusively dedicated to schools or parks. Such taxes are common at the state and local level, where such taxes—even tax <i>increases</i>—prove often to be reliably popular. That is, voters might feel good about paying a special sales tax, for example, to build a park or a school or a new sewer system. In fact, the closer the citizen is to a problem, the more likely he or she will be sympathetic to arguments that more taxes could solve the problem. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can note that popular federal programs often follow the same model of hypothecation. The Social Security system, for example, began in the 1930s amidst lots of stern talk about a sacrosanct “account,” into which the payroll taxes of future recipients were deposited. This account was always something of an accounting fiction, and yet the idea that the citizen, upon retirement, is merely drawing on “his” or “her” account is a powerful notion to this day—and helps explain why Social Security is so popular. To the extent that hypothecation implies ownership, or at least a property right, well, that’s powerful. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Another example of alleged federal hypothecation is the highway trust fund (HTF), financed by a “user fee” of gasoline taxes. In fact, DC lawmakers have long <a href="https://www.heritage.org/transportation/report/congress-undermines-americas-infrastructure-looting-the-highwaytrust-fund">dipped into</a>—some would say <i>looted</i>—the HTF. And that’s how trust is eroded. So that’s likely one reason why people don’t much like the federal government. According to one survey, just 28 percent of Americans hold a favorable view of the federal government; by contrast, the more often truly hypothecated state and local governments enjoy <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2013/04/15/state-govermnents-viewed-favorably-as-federal-rating-hits-new-low/">higher approval</a>, 57 percent and 63 percent, respectively. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add that if politics were a series of pledges, that would be a limit on demagogues—they would, at least to some extent, find themselves constrained by their pledges. So maybe the feds should give dedication another try—and mean it this time. To be sure, there’s a counter-argument: that elected officials should do what they think best. The eminent British conservative <a href="http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s7.html">Edmund Burke</a> made exactly this argument in the 18th century. He lost. That hardly settles the matter, but for our purposes, we can say that it would be good if politicians kept their pledges. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To state the matter positively, once politicians are inspired with a message, they can be very articulate and persuasive. For instance, Abraham Lincoln. In the middle of the 19th century, the arguments for and against slavery were fast and furious. And yet in 1858, Lincoln summed up the abolitionist argument in a <a href="https://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/lincoln2/1:547?rgn=div1;view=fulltext">few crisp words</a>: “As I would not be a slave, so I would not be a master.” There in a snap: The anti-slavery argument, 14 words. By comparison, the ATR tax pledge, at 55 words, is a slog. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But whether it’s 14 words, 55 words, or even longer the key goal is to boil down the policy point to its comprehensible essential: as a pledge. If that can be done, voters and elected officials alike will be able to benefit. And the country, too, will benefit. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Next: Money in Politics </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-1371154062103212832023-10-29T08:33:00.005-04:002023-11-09T11:45:38.886-05:00Media Superfluity: Campaigns Don’t Need It <p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Fifth in a series</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"> </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheCNiO8q7jc6EkGAnFR8gCOZa4d9xcobqLYZfo3FgSqdXraZ9wUS43wQ_kpHwPPR1PHa5-yYUYJUUlfjcxhGmkoxFPtTPlLtNV0-IrrWHbuiwUtNXvTzZLcgIqZp68afT4j63WQ35VxkMLPpXrwUIDu74E036ss06yYaUtENtdB8fZlkEcgxi7JA/s1000/51caH8vIjlL._AC_UF1000,1000_QL80_.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheCNiO8q7jc6EkGAnFR8gCOZa4d9xcobqLYZfo3FgSqdXraZ9wUS43wQ_kpHwPPR1PHa5-yYUYJUUlfjcxhGmkoxFPtTPlLtNV0-IrrWHbuiwUtNXvTzZLcgIqZp68afT4j63WQ35VxkMLPpXrwUIDu74E036ss06yYaUtENtdB8fZlkEcgxi7JA/s320/51caH8vIjlL._AC_UF1000,1000_QL80_.jpg" width="240" /></a></div><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"><p><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"><br /></b></p>Self Awareness</b><p></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In the previous installments of we’ve considered various components of today’s practical politics, including <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/09/">election legitimacy</a>, <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-inefficiency-of-campaigns.html">campaign inefficiency</a>, <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/10/voter-uncertainty-and-how-to-fix-it.html">voter uncertainty</a>. But there’s one element that’s barely come up: the media. And there’s a reason for that: Namely, that the media don’t have that much to do with actually winning or losing elections. Don’t get me wrong: I fully understand that the media drenches everything, that this is the information age, and that everyone in politics is obsessed with spin, narrative, news cycle, and so on. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And yet as we can demonstrate, the media don’t really help win election campaigns. So by this reckoning, the media are <i>superfluous</i>. To which the immediate response could be, <i>Of course</i> the media don’t help win election campaigns. That’s not its job! And that’s a fair enough point, but it is <i>our</i> job win campaigns. So let’s pursue the point: <i>Why shouldn’t</i> the media helped us win? And if the current media don’t wish to help, okay. In which case, we probably need <i>new media</i>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">That is, a media that is consciously aware of the need to help our campaign. And if that’s not “media” as we think of it now—if it seems more like advertising, or p.r.—so be it. Our goal is to win, not to bow down to old visions and modes. So if we need some sort of new start-up, so be it. Yes, it’s the information age, but nobody said what <i>kind</i> of information it has to be, or who has to produce it. Campaigns can put forth their own information, aiming to help their candidate(s) win. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In the meantime, the extant media is perfectly free to do what it does. Even as, of course, the business model for much of it is faltering, amidst the glut of information in this, yes, information age. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The key point here is for campaigns to realize that the media are superfluous, and, in fact, often harmful. How so? Because the media tend to accentuate the negative. That is, reporters and pundits and social-media mavens are, more often than not, critics. Some might think of themselves as <i>friendly</i> critics—and a very few might even define themselves as <i>cheerleaders</i>—and yet very of them see themselves as actually part of any campaign. Indeed, on the right, the negativity is especially noticeable; the cutting edge of conservative media is, for the most part, profoundly hostile to Republican leadership. There’s simply not much media space for a right-wing journalist who says, “Go, Republicans!” Not much space and, in fact, much derision. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And of course, there’s no great need for a campaign to have them around, because the campaign is about winning elections, not about spewing content. That’s right: campaigns are about getting the most votes. That’s what’s <i>intrinsic</i> to a campaign, or at least it should be. By contrast, media coverage is <i>extrinsic</i> (even if the egos of the candidates and campaign domos thrill to coverage). </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In the meantime, the sooner campaigns and parties wake up, the better. And one can, in fact, see stirrings. For instance, after a Fox News-hosted debate among the Republican presidential hopefuls, veteran anti-tax activist Grover Norquist <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2023/08/27/opinion-the-first-republican-debate-focused-on-all-the-wrong-questions-grover-norquist/">wrote</a> for <i>The Daily Caller</i> on August 27, “The debate ill-served the Republican party (and the nation) by failing to focus like a laser on the one important question: Which candidate is most likely to win a general election against Joe Biden or whoever the central committee of the Democrat party chooses when/if polls show Biden cannot win.” In a later comment to me, he added that the media—at least the media that purports to speak for and to the right “needs to be a self-aware participant in politics.” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">There’s a phrase to ponder: <i>self-aware</i>. As in, consciously seek out the advancement of the Republican Party and conservative goals overall. But is that <i>journalism</i>? It would depend on who you ask. Most “journalists” would probably say “no.” Okay, fine, then they have made themselves <i>extrinsic</i> to the functioning of campaigns. So long as campaigns understand that, everyone can be happy. (Although again, the business model of most journalism is failing.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In the meantime, others in the media are starting to fill the void. For instance, on October 4, <i>The New York Times</i> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/us/politics/bannon-republicans-gaetz-mace.html">considered</a> the impact of Steven Bannon and his “War Room” internet show: “He is a vital part of a feedback loop of red-meat media hits and social media posts, online fund-raising and unfettered preaching.” There we have it: Bannon as an activist, helping Republicans—at least the ones he likes. But is Bannon a <i>journalist</i>? Not by most people’s definition, that’s for sure. For those who like him, Bannon might be called an “activist,” or an “advocate,” or perhaps even a “player.” Or if they don’t like him, they might call Bannon a “rabble rouser,” a “demagogue”—and it gets worse from there. And yet it seems fair to say that if Bannon visibly sets out to move the needle on <i>intra</i>-Republican politics, he can. (Whether he can actually help Republicans defeat Democrats is iffier.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Old Models</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Interestingly, the roots of political journalism in America are, well, Bannon-esque. That is, in the 18th and early 19th centuries, most journalistic outlets (newspapers) were frankly partisan in their outlook, oftentimes subsidized by one kind of partisan or another. That is, they came into existence as pamphlets of a kind; pushing a party line or label. (Former NBC News and Fox News reporter-anchor Eric Burns ably chronicled this history in his 2007 <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Infamous-Scribblers-Eric-Burns/dp/1586484281">book</a>, <i>Infamous Scribblers: The Founding Fathers and the Rowdy Beginnings of American Journalism</i>.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet by the end of the 19th century, newspapers had mostly changed. They might still have favored one party or the other, but their business model shifted to mass circulation, often in hot competition with other newspapers. In this environment, what mattered was being entertaining, informing—and, one way or another, compelling. In the 20th century, these changing news values were augmented by two new factors; first, the progressive era, which put a new and high-minded premium on information and uplift; and second, with the coming of electronic media, the federal government stepped in to assure some sort of fair and careful take on the news (the FCC’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairness_doctrine">“fairness doctrine”</a> began to take shape in 1941). </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So as TV came to dominate media, these newer values came to dominate as well. The media might have been left-of-center, and yet it was for the most part at least somewhat veiled and subtle. Instead, what was most obvious was the growing “glamour” of TV news. That is, the news was made flashy and the reporters, at least some of them, became stars, big-name celebrities. This was a point made by Pulitzer Prize-winning TV critic Ron Powers in his well-titled book from 1978, <i>The Newscasters: The News Business as Show Business. </i>As he wrote, “Anchormen, weathermen, and reporters all, each represented a radical discontinuity with journalistic tradition. Each was a curious hybrid of personal magnetism, looks, showmanship and—in some cases—newsman. Each, to the degree that he was successful, was a bigger audience ‘draw’ than the news he reported or read.” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To anyone of a certain age, this is familiar: National TV anchors such as Diane Sawyer, Jessica Savitch, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Kent">Arthur Kent</a> became, well, sex symbols. And the same was true for local TV news, where hotties came to abound. In his book, Powers continued, “But the usurpation of television news reached a far deeper level than that of anchormen's personalities. It attained the status of a covert and insidious reversal of the very journalistic process itself. Instead of striving to impart information to the viewers, the salesmen-managers of television stations were engaged in a tacit conspiracy to extract information from the viewers—information that would serve the managers in their efforts to maximize audience size and thereby establish their respective newscasts as the top-dollar advertising draw in the market.”</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We’re starting to see, here, that the news—including news-as-entertainment and news-as-titillation—was becoming a profit center. And the pursuit of profitability further mutated the news, as the quest for ratings resulted in bidding wars for talent. More from Powers: “What did people want (not need, but want) under the rubric of ‘news’? What pleased them most? Amused them? Gratified them, charmed them, or provided them with the sort of vicarious cheap thrills that kept them mesmerized during prime-time entertainment? What colors did they like? What faces, voices? Conversely, what did viewers not want to know? What sort of news displeased them, threatened them, bored them, impelled them to switch away from a disturbing confrontation with harsh reality and into the lulling glades of television torpor?” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Was the news still liberal? Sure. But idea that the news should be entertaining came first. So even after the FCC repealed the Fairness Doctrine in 1987, the news stayed focused on entertainment, including star power. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So can see: The media had come a long way since the time when newspaper were seen as arguments for, even propaganda for, one party or the other. That is, by the late 20th century, the media had become its own power center, and a huge power center at that—some would say, in fact, that media was as powerful, or even <i>more</i> powerful, than anything else. Perhaps so, and yet whatever its power rating, that’s not the same thing as aiding campaigns. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The coming of cable news changed this dynamic somewhat. That is, Fox went right and MSNBC went left, each taking a piece of the increasingly fragmented media market. And yet neither Fox nor MSNBC saw itself as a mouthpiece for the Republican or Democratic parties. In fact, the anchors were more typically ideological than the parties and the party leadership; talking heads preferred to make sharper and edgier points than the mainstreams of either party. Once again, the press/media should be free to conduct itself any way it wishes, but we’re seeing that the Fourth Estate isn’t necessarily helping candidates and their campaigns. Different function, different missions, different impacts. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, it can be argued that cable news, and niched ideological media overall, actually hurts the parties. That is, mainlining cable news makes most elections—that is, elections other than the presidency—boring. If the big contest, the one that gets the national attention, is the presidential election, then elections for lesser offices must matte less. Even an attuned voter might not know the names of the candidates, especially as one moves down the ballot. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Even worse, national campaigns, including media razzle-dazzle, might generate more heat that is actually needed. That is, to turn a turbine, water must rise to 212 degrees Fahrenheit to make steam—and then it’s best to stop there, heat-wise. Any more heat doesn’t turn the turbine any faster, it just causes trouble for the system. This, by the way, is a big problem with nuclear reactors; the temperature of the radioactive core is a couple thousand degrees, and so disposing of that excess heat is a systemic challenge that can break down and melt down. In political terms, too much heat can distort party primaries, rewarding extremists who are less likely to be electable in a general election. And our goal, of course, is to win the election with a rational, or at least amenable, pro-Framework candidate. For all these reasons, it behooves us to <i>disintermediate</i> the media from our GOTV operation. People, journalists, and pundits can do as they please, but our campaign wishes to build a tight relationship with actual voters; voters are the signal, the media are the noise. The pursuit of that clear-channel signal means direct candidate-to-voter contact. Which, of course, is cheaper than TV advertising. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>OODA</b> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Lots of things seem like good ideas in one era and like not-such-good-ideas in another era. And yet it’s oftentimes hard to see when some idea or practice or machine passes from optimum to sub-optimum. After all, the wave of the future doesn’t come with a label. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The challenge, in assessing events, is to achieve some degree of <a href="https://www.thelivingphilosophy.com/ecstasis-and-catharsis/"><i>ecstasis</i></a>. That’s the ancient Greek word that refers to the capacity to stand outside oneself. (And yes, <i>ecstasis</i> is the root of the word “ecstasy,” which has taken on different meanings than what Plato or Aristotle had in mind.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So as a healthy exercise in self-assessment, one needs to step outside oneself. We might think on the question posed by Peter Drucker in his book from seven decades ago, <i>The Effective Executive</i>: “If we weren’t doing this now, would we start?” That is, is what we’re doing, whatever it is, such a good idea that we should keep doing it? To apply this Druckerian wisdom, we could ask ourselves: “If the media as it is today didn’t exist, would campaigns want to invent it?” More likely, campaigns would say to themselves, “Surely there’s a better way!” And so let’s start thinking of that better way. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To further illustrate the point about thinking anew, we might follow the mental tactic developed by the U.S. Air Force to help pilots decide on a course of action in real time: The OODA Loop. That is, Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. The idea being that each new moment in flying forces the pilot to consider the situation in the air, especially if it involves aerial combat. Am I in the right place? Am I at a disadvantage? Is my opponent at a disadvantage. Only a constant process of evaluation can maximize the pilot’s chances of survival, let alone victory. To be sure, it’s exhausting to be looking around all the time, questioning everything, but it’s the only way to survive. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So with Drucker and OODA in mind—and we considered Ockham’s Razor in the previous installment—let’s consider campaigns’ relationship with the media. What’s the goal here? The media, including the news media, have its goal: To entertain, including making the news entertaining. That’s all fine and good, but the goal of the campaign is different: <i>The campaign wants to win elections. </i>If the media can help that goal, fine. If the media can’t help, or if it hurts, then campaigns need to keep thinking. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">This is not a slap at our friends in the Fourth Estate. It’s just an observation that as we focus on the core transaction of a campaign—<i>the fundamental unit is the vote</i>—we realize that we don’t need to focus on <i>non</i>-core transitions. The voter’s relationship with our candidate matters to us. The voter’s relationship to the media does <i>not</i> matter.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To restate that a bit, we can say that the voter’s <i>non</i>-granular relationship to the media does <i>not</i> matter. Pols can win an election without media, but they can’t win it without the most votes. If pols have the votes, they don’t need the media. Of course, some will insist that the media are vital to the electoral process. After all, they are delivering news, affecting opinion, carrying advertising. And yes, the media do all those gerunding things—<i>delivering, affecting, carrying</i>—and yet that doesn’t make them vital to a campaign. After all, it’s perfectly possibly to consume a lot of media and not vote—or to vote for the wrong party or candidate. You don’t need media any more to win elections. You just need to win elections. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So what if the media did want to help? Then it would be, as Grover Norquist suggests, a self-aware media. And that would be great for campaigns. A media that actually helps candidates win. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;">Next: Politicians' Unaccountability</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-31632427913053876742023-10-08T13:44:00.006-04:002023-10-08T13:49:59.790-04:00Voter Uncertainty, and How to Fix It<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Fourth in a series </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Show Me the Voting!</b> </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Okay, so we’ve critiqued the current way of campaigning. We’ve emphasized that the real issue is getting people to vote. But then there’s still the question: Even if we know they voted, do we know <i>how</i> they voted? Can we be absolutely, positively sure that they voted the way that they said they did? The citizen is under no obligation to reveal, of course, but if they don’t, then we can’t know. And if we can’t know, then a more efficient political machine is not possible. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">There’s one way to make sure, of course: <i>take a picture of the ballot.</i> And, further, record the process in which the ballot goes into the slot. Now of course, that doesn’t guarantee that the ballot has been faithfully counted, and yet at least it demonstrates the <i>input</i>. And as we saw in <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/09/securing-elections-and-good-governance.html">Part One</a>, verifying the input is at least a first step in verifying the throughput and then, most importantly, the output. That is, the actual counted ballot. But again, if the ballot can’t be verified in the first place, then there’s not much hope of verifying it has moves through the process. Nailing down accurate and honest elections might be a long process, but we have to start somewhere. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And so we could start by verifying the ballot as the voter meant to mark it. To that end, it certainly does seem reasonable to produce a photo of one’s own ballot. Perhaps with one’s own face in the same frame: The voter holding his or her ballot. That is, a “ballot selfie.” As <i>The New York Times</i> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/27/us/politics/voting-booth-snapchat-selfies.html">put it in 2016</a>, “To many, there’s no better celebration of democracy than a voting booth photograph. It’s the moment political talk turns to political action, one younger voters are especially eager to record and share with friends.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But there’s a question: Is this act legal? Intuitively, it would seem that free speech, and free expression, should prevail, especially concerning political speech and expression. And in fact, there’s no federal law against photographing a ballot. However, the states are a curious patchwork. and the states are a patchwork. According to <a href="https://www.vox.com/21523858/ballot-selfies-state-rules"><i>Vox,</i></a> in 14 states it’s not legal, and in another 10 states, the law is unclear. The thinking behind the ban on photographing ballots is it discourages vote-buying, and that might be true, although the laws seem more aimed at voting machine <i>companies</i>, as opposed to individual voters. In any case, few, if any, individual voters have been prosecuted for photographing (an antique term in the age of cell phone cameras) their own ballot, and yet the overhang of illegality is enough to discourage larger organizations from doing it.</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Still, it seems likely that the general tendency in American society today—people taking selfies of themselves doing just about everything—is going to prevail. That is, oneself photographing oneself and one’s ballot will be okay.</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Great Separation: The Public Act and the Secret Ballot</b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But if we’re on the subject of voter certainty, here’s a question: Why are ballots secret, anyway? Any way you slice it, the secret ballot makes it harder to verify the balloting, so why are we making it hard on ourselves? And come to think of it, even the notion of a <i>ballot</i> is potentially troublesome, as the ballot is a different thing than the person. So even to add the concept of “ballot” is to create complexity beyond the person—the complexity of two, as opposed to one. If John Smith wishes to vote Republican, or Democrat, that’s simple enough. So why not simply count John Smith, as opposed to his ballot? Why not keep it unitary, as opposed to making it binary? Why secret, as opposed to open? </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We should keep in mind that the whole essence of our Constitution and our government is the republic, an English word derived from the Latin <i>res publica</i>, the public thing. The acts of politicians are mostly public—people would be horrified if legislatures voted in secret and are always demanding more “sunshine”—so why is the citizen’s act of voting private? Especially when that makes the voting process vulnerable to fraud? </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In fact, through most of the history of democracy, citizen voting was public. In ancient Greece, or in the Italian republics of the Renaissance era, voting was public: a show of hands, or a voice vote. Simple and clear. In early America, voting was similar public: a show of hands, or dropping pebbles, or tokens, in a bowl. In his classic work, <i>Democracy in America</i>, <a href="https://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/1_ch05.htm">Alexis de Tocqueville</a> praised the New England town meeting for its openness, which we would now call transparency. In the town meeting, citizens could speak openly, and vote openly, witnessed, of course, by their fellow citizens: “Township institutions . . . give the people the taste for freedom and the art of being free.” Does that sound so bad? Tocqueville continued: local control, expressed <i>publicly</i>, was the key to a strong civic spirit: </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Patriotism is a kind of devotion which is strengthened by ritual observance. In this manner the activity of the township is continually perceptible; it is daily manifested in the fulfillment of a duty or the exercise of a right; and a constant though gentle motion is thus kept up in society.</b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet with the coming of mass suffrage in the late 19th century, including from new immigrants from non-English-speaking countries, concerns arose about the ability of political bosses in cities to coerce voters. This was undoubtedly a legitimate concern, and yet perhaps, over the long run, the solution was worse than the original problem. And back then, the shift from public to private voting was laden with controversy. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">For instance, the British reformer <a href="https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Mr._John_Stuart_Mill_and_the_ballot">John Stuart Mill</a>, a liberal in his day, opposed the shift to secret balloting. In 1869 he declared, “It appears to me that secret suffrage . . . would at present, and still more in time to come, produce far greater evil than good.” To Mill’s reckoning, voting was a trust more than a right; after all, it were a right, then it could be bought or sold. But a trust must be held to a higher standard. And yet, in Mills view, the secret ballot was a selfish act. Reacting to the argument that secret balloting was needed to counteract duress, Mill declared, “A base and mischievous vote is now, I am convinced, much oftener given from the voter's personal interest, or class interest, or some mean feeling in his own mind, than from any fear of consequences at the hands of others.” And so Mill continued, the voters own baseness and mischievousness, combined with the secret ballot, “would enable him to yield himself up free from all sense of shame or responsibility.” The right thing to do was the public vote, “under the eye and criticism of the public.” If democracy is going to work, there must be accountability, and that applies to everyone: We all, in our way, must stand up and be counted. Yet Mill’s view, of course, was defeated. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In the 1880s and 1890s, the U.S. began to switch from open balloting to the so-called <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_ballot#United_States">"Australian,"</a> or secret, ballot. The argument that prevailed was that the secret ballot would be more orderly, would prevent coercion, leaving voters <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/24/forgotten-precedent-unprecedented-politics-age-of-acrimony-484072">“alone with their conscience.”</a> </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Once again, maybe the secret ballot was right solution for that era. But now we live in a different era, and so maybe a different approach is needed. Today, as a function of red-blue polarization, just about everyone is only too happy to tell you who they voted <i>for</i>—and who they voted <i>against</i>. As noted, open balloting, with a visible chain of custody—<i>me, the citizen, and my vote, to be counted, and, if need be, recounted</i>—would all but eliminate vote fraud. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So while there’s no need to rehash the electoral history of the last 150 years, we can say that,, a century-and-a-half later, the issue is being revisited. Being revisited already, in fact.</p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The GameStop Lesson</b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In this era of secret ballots, the only way to verify a voter’s intention is to see what he or she says. And so external tests help, even if they aren’t conclusive. Still, the external tests, made all the more visible These can be quite visible. In fact, we’ve already seen something of a dry run for this. In 2021, an army of activist investors, informed by free-for-all platforms such as Reddit, and powered by low-cost or no-cost trading platforms such as Robin Hood, chose to drive up the stock price of video game retailer GameStop. The stock was worth less than a dollar in 2019, and yet the activists thought it was undervalued, so they <a href="https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/fall-2021/gamestop-episode-what-happened-what-does-it-mean">bid it up to as high as $347 in January 2021</a>. Some will ask: Was this truly an investment play—including a squeeze on short sellers—or was this some aspect of herd mentality and general rowdiness? the madness of crowds? Nearly three years later, GameStop stock had settled into the $15 range, which, while down enormously from its peak, is still a multiple higher than its earlier price before the run-up. That suggests that, yes, group psychology had driven speculative excess on GameStop, a 21st-century <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp">tulip mania</a>. And yet still, the proverbial “army of Davids” had proven a point; they had self-organized online, and made an impact, and discovered at least some latent value in the stock. Wall Street had had the edge over small traders, using high frequency trading and algorithms, and reaching into “dark pools,” private exchangers were big traders can trade without moving the market. (In other words, it’s a kind of institutionalized insider trading.) It’s a safe bet that this sort of self-organization will occur again. In fact, along the way, GameStoppers blitzed help on a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56438230">charity for gorillas</a>, so who knows where all this will end, if it ever ends. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can see that the same elements of the GameStop—individuals acting as a peaceful flash mob, operating outside of traditional structures—could be applied to politics. That is, an <i>army of voters</i> wash over the balloting. Quick action, <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/02/20/pinkerton-just-as-politics-has-come-to-gamestop-so-gamestop-activism-will-come-to-politics/">profound results</a>; now <i>that’s</i> leverage. Unlike investments, the voter flash mob can come and go--so long as it alights on Election Day, or, nowadays, Election Season. The goal is to make sure that the votes are cast and counted, and group enthusiasm can drive that. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">If a citizen is vocally, demonstrably, in favor of something, that’s a pretty good clue that he or she will vote for it. And for a political campaign, that sense, while not ironclad, is worth a lot. However, to make it worth more, the optimizing campaign must drive up turnout for its vote as close to 100 percent as possible. So that suggests further steps to verify the commitment. And that takes us back to photographing ballots. Or, if they can’t be photographed, then we go to some sort of verifying procedure, such as another person eyeballing the vote. So now we come to ideas such as parties, in which everybody brings their ballot to show it off, allowing for some campaign official(s) to verity it. And yes, it might be hard to get people to resist taking pictures of such festivities, but then, as we have noted, nobody gets prosecuted for exuberant selfie-ing. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Furthermore, without a doubt, new technology will enter in. For instance, the non-fungible tokens (NFT). These were a tulip-like craze in about 2021, and yet it seems that since then, their value has fallen to pretty much zero. Zero might be the appropriate monetary valuation, but as a token of political solidarity—as in, you get one of you’re on the voting team—they could be worth a lot to campaigns. If voters can be convinced to publicly stand by their candidate, and let their vote be measured in the meantime, well, the whole nature of campaigns changes, as the focus shifts from advertising to vote-counting. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, whether it’s selfies, parties, or NFTs, we can see that a public expression of a ballot is worth a lot. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And there’s more coming. We can see that bots and AI could play a role in tending to the candidates, making sure they feel connected. And some have gone further. For instance, Sam Altman, CEO of Open AI, sees potential in a tech-oriented <a href="https://worldcoin.org/blog/worldcoin/proof-of-personhood-what-it-is-why-its-needed">Proof of Personhood</a>, which, <a href="https://whitepaper.worldcoin.org/#potential-applications">he explains</a>, could have political potential. Indeed it could. But it could also be a case of overengineering. That is, we don’t need to know everything about everyone, down to a retina scan. We just need to know that they are an eligible citizen, that they intend to vote for our candidate, and that they are willing to verify their vote. That’s all we need to win elections.</p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Next: The Superfluity of the Media </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"> </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-52982004986246700252023-10-05T11:27:00.002-04:002023-10-05T11:27:26.242-04:00The Inefficiency of Campaigns<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Third of a series</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>If We Weren’t Doing This Now, Would We Start?</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/09/securing-elections-and-good-governance.html"><span class="s1">part one</span></a> of this series, we considered some of the key issues of <i>vote fraud, and vote counting</i>, in the U.S.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/09/the-quest-for-legitimacy-in-elections.html"><span class="s1">part two</span></a>, we looked at the resulting problem of the <i>legitimacy</i> of American elections.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Now, in part three, let’s look at some of the challenges facing candidates and campaigns, starting with the <i>inefficiency</i> of the current campaign system. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To be sure, at the end of every election, somebody wins, so the system might <i>seem</i> to be at least somewhat efficient.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Yet still, some spectacular examples of inefficiency leap to mind.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>For instance, in his 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, Michael Bloomberg spent some <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2021/11/05/heres-where-mike-bloomberg-the-biggest-spender-in-the-2020-election-has-donated-this-year/?sh=48d4e8645a10"><span class="s1">$1.25 billion</span></a>, all in, and got of course, bupkis.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And in 2022, Citadel’s Ken Griffin donated $50 million to an Illinois Republican gubernatorial hopeful, Richard Irvin, who did all the usual candidate-y things, such as making speeches and running TV ads, and yet he lost badly, coming in third in the GOP primary, garnering a meager 119,000 votes.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Which means that Griffin’s <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/elections/ct-griffin-50-million-to-irvin-20220601-ugwst75n3jclzdwmpwn46wngba-story.html"><span class="s1">$50 million “investment”</span></a> worked out to $420 a vote. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And of course, the real test of the current campaign system will come when something better comes along—as, for example, described here.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Only with competition and the resulting gains in perspective do we really see what works best—and what works worst. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can pause to wonder as to what’s going on.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>After all, these and other fatcats in and around politics have typically proven that they know how to run operations.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And yet even so, they make spectacularly bad political investments.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Could it be that they are being outfoxed by the campaign consultants?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Or is it that the system just doesn’t work well? <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Either way, the industry seems ripe for reinvention and/or disruption.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">When confronted with an issue of the status quo, we can ask the piercing question which Peter Drucker, writing seven decades ago in<i> The Effective Executive, </i>suggested every firm ask of itself: <i>“</i>If we did not already do this, would we go into it now?” And if the answer is “no,” Drucker continued, then the company should start thinking if maybe it, whatever it is, might not be such a good idea.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Indeed, perhaps exit the activity altogether and seek something better. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">According to <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/12/2020-opensecrets-year-in-review/"><span class="s1">Open Secrets</span></a>, total campaign spending, nationwide in the U.S. in 2020, totaled $14.4 billion. Although surely, the amount spent to influence voting is vastly greater than that.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>How would, for example, one count all the money spent, directly and indirectly, on political persuasion, be it via organizations or by the media—including social media?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>It’s easy to conclude that the true number, if it could ever quantified, is a vast multiple of $14.4 billion. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So there’s a lot of money in politics.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Yet whatever the total, the only thing we know for sure is that the <i>leverage</i> of politics—political influence on the economy—extends to every penny of the $26 trillion or so of U.S. GDP. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So it’s worth figuring out how to do this right.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Craft Businesses</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet despite all the money and tech—well-funded digital strategists and data-crunchers abound now in political campaigns as budgets for a mere House race swell into the tens of millions—the business itself is still a “craft” business.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, there are probably hundreds of thousands Americans who call themselves “campaign consultants,” or professional political operatives of one stripe or another.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>They aim to serve the estimated <a href="https://poliengine.com/blog/how-many-politicians-are-there-in-the-us"><span class="s1">519,000</span></a> elected officials in the U.S.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And yet even the largest campaign campaign operations have but a small market share. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can note the enormous churn of creative destruction in the process; campaigns and consultancies come and go with rapidity. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>As a result, theres’s a lot of friction in the basic meat of campaigns which is, increasingly, <i>data</i>: the names and addresses of voters and donors.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The national Republican and Democratic parties have their treasured lists, as do the campaign arms of U.S. Senate and House members in both parties: The NRSC, DSCC, NRCC, and DCCC. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And there are similar operations for governors, state attorneys general, state legislatures, and so on.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In addition, thousands of firms and political action committees have their own proprietary lists.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So we’re already up to thousands of data siloes.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>To which we can add the uncounted number of campaigns that pull together at least some data, and do at least something with it, win or lose.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>These entities come and go, and their data are often lost, like tears in rain.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>We can quickly see that data quality, data security—even basic data retention—is an important issue. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Truly effective data operations—from Google to the credit card companies to the Social Security Administration—don’t operate this way.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>They, and their industries, long ago realized that consolidation into the data equivalent of fortresses was the only way to go, data-sanctity-wise.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In a world of hackers and other kinds of fraudsters, there’s simply no way to avoid a heavy investment in cyber-security. And so those operations that aren’t investing heavily are likely porous.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The wide-open pores are, in fact, legion.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can’t say that the status quo is catastrophic; we can merely say that it is suboptimal.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And the lack of privacy and security for personal data is probably destined to collide with some pretty heavy and costly lawsuits and other legal interventions.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This likely future litigation will probably force a roll up—the concentration of the industry in fewer, more defensible forms.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Such concentration is also in keeping with the general tendency of firms to scale up their data operations into larger realms that better capture economies of scale. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Roll Up</b> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To cite a past industry analogy, we might claim that the state of the politics biz today to that of the car industry 100 or more years ago.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Amidst the Cambrian Explosion of auto innovation at the beginning of the 20th century, it’s been estimated that some <a href="https://www.gainesville.com/story/special/2016/11/28/cars-we-remember-from-2000-to-4-short-history-of-american-car-companies/24465851007/"><span class="s1">2,000</span></a> U.S. car companies came into existence in the first two decades of the last century.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And yet by mid-century those U.S. companies were rolled up (willingly or unwillingly) into the Big Three, as well as just a handful of tiny-niche survivors.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Today, there are more big companies than just three, including foreign makers, and yet the top ten brands control more than <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/249375/us-market-share-of-selected-automobile-manufacturers/#:~:text=Automotive%20manufacturers'%20estimated%20market%20share%20in%20the%20U.S.%202022&text=At%20around%2017.09%20percent,%20General,manufacturer%20in%20the%20United%20States."><span class="s1">90 percent</span></a> of the market. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can see this phenomenon elsewhere. Just a few decades ago, there were thousands of internet service providers, each striving to serve some local market.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Today, there are still thousands, and yet just a handful of “phone” and/or “cable” companies dominate the ISP market. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">It would seem that there’s an inevitability to this process of consolidation, and so it’s likely to come to politics.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In a way, of course, it already has. The two parties, Republican and Democratic, control, between them, 99 percent or more of all partisan political offices.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Boutique Politics<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The duopoly of politics itself makes the cacophony of political operations all the more interesting—and all the more looking like a lagging indicator.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>For the most part, campaign firms style themselves on the persona of the person, or persons, who originate the firm.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Back in 1934, California politicos <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitaker_and_Baxter"><span class="s1">Clem Whitaker and Leone Baxter</span></a> started Campaign, Inc.; they are remembered as the first campaign consultants. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The history of campaign consultancy since abounds with famous people, from Tony Schwartz to Stu Spencer to David Garth to Roger Ailes to Lee Atwater to Bob Squier to Bob Shrum to James Carville to Mandy Grunwald to Jeff Roe.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The commonality of all these trailblazers is that while they and their firms can be hugely profitable in their moment, the companies tend to dissolve quickly.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>It’s not that they go bankrupt or cease to exist, it’s that their partners have a way of cashing out or otherwise leaving the scene, while the entities are bought up and and reshuffled. To be sure, sometimes these campaign firms are bought up and rolled up into giant firms.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>For instance, in 2010, <a href="https://campaignsandelections.com/industry-news/corporate-consolidation-and-the-future-of-consulting/"><span class="s1">WPP bought Blue State Digital</span></a>, bringing the Democratic consultancy into a global multination boasting revenues of $17 billion. There have been hundreds of huge deals, because a hot shop is, indeed, profitable.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet still, there’s the challenge of what the German sociologist Max Weber’s called “the rationalization of charisma.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, the process by which an institution outlasts its founder, if it does.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The charismatic hero will not last forever, and so the company must rationalize his or her charisma, turning it into a system or, if you will, a bureaucracy. It’s the only way something can survive; although, of course, with AI, who knows what new longevity tool will emerge.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet we can further add that if a company if depersonalized, it becomes all the more clear that underlying product—the ultimate real currency of campaigning— is <i>data</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, data, as expressed in big data, structured in algorithms and interface with CRM, and so on, wins. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To be sure, there will always be great TV ads—moving, funny, memorable, effective—and there will be internet cognate of this creativity, in the form of videos, animation, AI-ification, gamification, who knows.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>But in the end, <i>politics is a numbers game.</i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Thus the issue of data optimization, even survival, once again rears its head.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>With every campaign or corporate move, there’s friction. And that’s trouble, including potential legal liability for data gone wrong.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The point here is not to argue that a few giant search engines, or phone companies, should be running campaigns. Quite possibly, it’s important, even vital, that campaign creativity and political freedom necessitates continued decentralization.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And yet even if the industry remains decentralized, it will still likely benefit from some sort of consortium element on data, some common repository, the cloud equivalent of a stock exchange, or farmers’ coops, or deposit-insured banks, or reinsurance. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>If not a roll up, then a rationalization is coming.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Fundament Unit is the Vote</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And as we think about what might come next, we can learn from the data-driven transformation of another field, which is also a numbers game: <i>baseball</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball has always been nerds; if one sits in the stands, one might see someone barely watching the game, but rather, poring over stats, for purposes of betting or perhaps just geekery.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Seventy years ago, the statistician for the Brooklyn Dodgers, Allan Roth, had a simple-but-profound insight: <i>The fundamental unit in baseball is the run</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, stats such as batting average, earned run average, etc. all sounded good—and fans loved them--and yet they weren’t necessarily translating into runs, and thus wins.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And winning is the point of the game, at least to managers and their teams.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>What matters is on-base percentage, more than homers and stolen bases and then, of course, a million more stats, such as hits and homers when men are on base. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">There was nothing complicated about Roth’s basic insight, and yet it was profound; even as the complexity<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Indeed, the application of his insight mostly consisted of chopping away extraneous statistics—what a scientist would call <i>epiphenomena</i>—focusing on those stats that were actually causally linked to whether or not the team won.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Isn’t that so often the case: One must reduce clutter to actually see what needs to be seen.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In more recent decades, Bill James turned Roth’s simplicity into a new kind of complexity, as he started developing statistics that more closely correlated with runs, such as whether or not a batter hits with men on base.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And then, Billy Beane synthesized Roth and James and created a new style of baseball managing/general managing.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The rules didn’t change, at least not much (the designated hitter being one big change).<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>But what did change was the evaluation of the data.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>(Beane was made famous, of course, in Michael Lewis’ book, <i>Moneyball</i>, and then further immortalized by Brad Pitt in the 2011 Hollywood movie.)<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Ockham’s Election</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">What Roth did was wield Ockham’s Razor.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Back in the 13th century, William of Ockham said famously, “eliminate unnecessary complexity.” <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>As with Roth and the run, Ockham’s statement was profound its simplicity.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Ever since, Ockham’s Razor—everything else being equal, choose the simplest possibility—has been the standard for science and logic.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>(And as such, it was loathed by others of a different turn of mind; the conservative Richard Waver, author of the 1947 book, <i>Ideas Have Consequences</i>, argued that Ockham was when the world took a decisive<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>turn for the worse because the Razor began chipping way at faith.)<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In subsequent centuries, figures such as Sir Francis Bacon further clarified the scientific method, so that discoveries resulted from an organized systematic process, as well as individual brilliance.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>One needs both, of course, and yet anything worth knowing in science and technology needs to be written down and quantified, so that it can be further understood and improved. In thew words of William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, “When you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That’s the point: If you want anything to last, it has to expressed in a way that others can understand; and math is the most universal of languages.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Shifting disciplines again, we can look to the Yale historian <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/revisiting-samuel-eliot-morisons-landmark-history-63715/"><span class="s1">Edmund S. Morgan</span></a>, who said that good scholar needed the “courage to simplify.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Echoing Ockham, Morgan continued,“To simplify where you know little is easy.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>To simplify where you know a great deal requires gifts of a different order: unusual penetration of mind and, above all, sheer nerve.”</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We might begin a deeper analysis by making an Allan Rothian point: <i>In politics, the fundamental unit is the vote.</i><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Indeed, as we shall see, if the focus is kept on <i>votes</i>, then we need to question everything that is not voting.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>By putting the focus on the fundamental unit in baseball, Beane & Co. changed the baseball; by putting the focus on the fundamental unit in politics, maybe<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>we can change politics.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And in politics, if one thinks about how campaigns judge themselves, one might think about the numbers being tossed around to show that the campaign is doing well—money raised, social media impressions delivered, contacts made, money raised, etc.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And, of course, polls, even if hey are only are, as is said, snapshot of the moment.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Of course, what really matters to a campaign, in the end, is <i>votes</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That is, <i>Did your candidate get more votes than the other candidate?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Did the campaign win? <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Let’s drill down, imagining it’s our campaign.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Let’s start with the realization that most voters, in both parties, have already resolved how they’re going to vote.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This is the <i>base</i> we hear so much about: those voters who vote in every election, or almost every election, always, or almost always, for the same party.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Probably 80 percent of voters count as base voters, roughly split between the two parties.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So if a base voter is one of “ours,” here’s our opportunity to insert some <i>Moneyball</i>-type thinking, by working to push the probability that he or she actually votes for our candidate to the highest possible level—ideally, of course, to the certainty of 100 percent.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Just as winning baseball teams strive to clear the bases by getting all their on-base players to home plate for the runs, so, too, we wish to “clear the bases” by getting all our voters to the voting booth (including, of course, mailboxes and any other place that receives ballots) for the election.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>By this reckoning, politics, like baseball, is a numbers game: <i>Get more runs to win; get more votes to win.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So how, exactly, to get all our peeps to the polls?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This effort might entail any degree of of “white glove” treatment for the voter: nudges, reminders, peer pressure, made all the easier by big data and AI—imagine every vote-intending voter with a chatbot nearby.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Some might say that this is just good ol’ GOTV—Get Out The Vote—updated with new technology.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And in a way, that’s true: It <i>is</i> GOTV, made all the more granular with digital tools.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And for sure, there’s nothing devious or corrupt about it; our campaign is just applying the time-tested wisdom: <i>Get there firstest with the mostest</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Yet of course, if this were easy, everyone would be doing it.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Two Inefficiencies to be Ironed Out</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">One inefficiency is on the vote side, the other on the elected official/party side.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>As we think about this, we can keep this thought in the back of our minds: We can see that the costly superstructure of political campaigning is <i>extrinsic</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>What’s <i>intrinsic</i>, and needs to homed in on, is the actual process of getting voters to the voting booth—or, of course, these days, with absentee and mail-in voting, getting the voting booth to the voter.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Just as Roth wanted more runs, we want more votes.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Let’s keep it that simple.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Let’s talk about the voter first.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Two-Screen Dilemma for Voters</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Right now, the voter has to deal with <i>two screens</i>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The <i>first screen</i> is the one by which he or she sees the world of political news: typically either a TV screen or a computer screen, including the screen on a smart phone.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This is typically a news portal of some kind, be it cable news or a a news or commentary site. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This site, or sites, might be entertaining, but in general it is not politically interactive.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>is, one can absorb information—video/audio, print—and yet one can’t typically take action on that site.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>They are, in this sense, <i>passively nontransactinal.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The<i> second screen</i> is the one in which he or she takes action.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This would be more like a party website, or a donor platform such as Act Blue or WinRed. These are plenty interactive, but they aren’t, as a rule, entertaining,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That’s not their purpose: The purpose is to facilitate an action.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>They are <i>actively transactional.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></i>Come here, give money, and perhaps do other things, such as apply for an absentee ballot.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And likely some day soon, <i>vote</i>. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But here’s the question: <i>Why are there two screens?</i> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Everything in our world of consumer convenience says, unify, simplify.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That’s why we can put just about everything on our smart phone or tablet, from communication to premises security to tax payments.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The two-screen status quo flunks the Drucker Test:<i> If we weren’t doing this now, would we start? <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So the voter is ill-served by this inefficiency.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>But the politician, too, is ill-served.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Opaque Screen for Politicians<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As a general rule, politicians like to talk.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>But as a matter of <i>campaign efficiency</i>, their political advisers<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>should wish to talk first about their own election or re-election.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And here’s where we say where the media aren’t aligned.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>After all, reporters and other kinds of journos want to talk about all the issues of the day, whatever they might be.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And so they will inevitably drag the pol into discussions of anything and everything.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The talented pol might well seek to steer the discussion to some stronger ground or safer harbor, but that’s not always possible. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>It’s the rare pol who has the clout to demand that the topics raised on the segment or show stick to an approved menu. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Moreover, to no small extent, cable news encourages a kind of circus-like atmosphere, since TV news is designed to entertain, as well as inform.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The pol might not be mind being an entertainer, but at some point, entertainment values get in the way of message-delivering.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>There’s a reason why brands are careful about where their brand finds itself; pols, too, are a brand, and so they must be careful—even if they aren’t always so careful. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Moreover, because the pol is talking on someone else’s platform, the audience is probably not legible to the pol.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Suppose a pol goes on Fox News, thereby speaking to a few million folks.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That’s all great, but the pol doesn’t know exactly who he (or she) is talking to.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>All the pol knows is that he was on for three minutes.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Even Fox doesn’t know exactly who was watching, because TV ratings measure households and their general demographics, not the exact name and details.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Moreover, the pol-on-Fox will quickly realize that a repeat performance—and the repeat after that, and after that—most likely means that he is talking to pretty much the same people.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So not only does he not know the identities, but it’s likely that the unknowns are themselves, reruns.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>So a rerun pol talking to a rerun audience.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>That’s inefficient.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>To put that another way, the signal-to-noise ratio isn’t so favorable.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This issue becomes all the more acute if the pol is focused on a critical election in his home state or district, as by definition, the vast majority of the audience will be outside of the needed jurisdiction. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>(There’s a reason why the most common figures on cable news either have national ambitions or safe districts; if so, then they’re happy to play the cable game.)<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">However, if the inefficiency of campaigns is a problem, the uncertainty of the voters is another problem.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And we’ll turn to that next.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-51769642604436939972023-09-26T22:13:00.008-04:002023-09-26T22:23:39.960-04:00The Quest for Legitimacy in Elections<p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Second of 13 parts </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">In </span><a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2023/09/securing-elections-and-good-governance.html" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">part one</a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"> of this series, we noted some of the challenges posed to honest elections. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"> </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So what to do? How to stop this cheating? How to maintain, or regain, legitimacy? The only surefire way to beat vote fraud—including the digital-age trick just adding numbers to vote totals via tech manipulation —is to count the votes on the way in. That is, know how many votes formed the <i>input</i>, and then compare that to the officially reported <i>output</i>. To put that another way, the idea here would make for a second count—which is actually a first count, prior to/at the time of the voting, the second count being the official tallying of the voting. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The point is simple enough: If the number of votes that go into the system (the aforementioned input) is a mystery, then the votes that emerge from the system (the output, the reported results, from the official vote-counters) will be, by definition, equally mysterious. Has the throughput changed on its way from input to output? There’s simply no way to know if the input is unknown. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So the only answer is to know the input and follow it, as it were, the “pig” as it goes through the “python.” So who would do this first counting, this pre-counting? Most likely, for the sake of Republicans, it would have to be the Republican Party, or Republican campaigns, or some other group working closely with the GOP. The first-counters, of course, would also presumably be the Get Out The Voters (GOTV). Campaigns and parties are getting good at figuring out who their voters are—all this granular digital tech is paying off. So the essence of GOTV nowadays is fine-grained relationship management and motivation: Knowing that John Smith is a likely Republican voter, the campaign does its best to get John Smith to vote and knows whether he did or not, and will stay on Smith until the last possible moment to get him to vote. (The issue of the secret ballot leaves a little bit of mystery, and we’ll get to that.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We might think of this counting idea as a dual-key system. The official vote-counters have one key, and that’s the legal key of the state machinery. But the unofficial voter-counters have the other key—and that’s in the possession of the campaigns. And while the campaigner’s key has no legal force, it does serve as a metric. The goal is to use the unofficial key to check, and keep honest, the official key. And yet to have effect, the unofficial key needs to be as transparent, or bulletproof, as possible. That is, if Republicans assert that X-number of GOP votes went into the system, they have to be able to document that that number did, in fact, go into the system. Otherwise, they have no credibility. Claims without proof can be dismissed as just more campaign hype. So the answer, of course, is that Republicans need to know who their voters are, and identify them, and count them. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So by definition, it can’t be a secret ballot, it has to be a <i>public ballot</i>. Or at least a transparent ballot, viewable by the campaign and other parties, as the need might arise, e.g. an audit. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Of course, under current law, the GOP can’t mandate a public ballot. So the public ballot has to be <i>voluntary</i>. That is, the voter would have to say, <i>Yes, here am I, and here is my ballot, marked, Republican</i>. <i>For anyone to inspect and verify. </i></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><i></i><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So why would a voter wish to do this? Not all would, but most would. Why? Because most voters, on both sides of the aisle, are perfectly happy to tell anyone how they voted. Such externalization is function nature of polarization, as well as social media. And so Republican campaigns can seize on that and say: </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Mr. Smith, here’s your chance not only vote Republican, but to let everyone know you’re a Republican, and to get credit for being a Republican, and to secure ballot integrity for Republicans. In fact, by your public act, you have just been enrolled in our GOP Gallery of Heroes. Here’s the website where you are listed, along with all of our other GOP Heroes. </b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To be sure, some voters, perhaps 10 percent, but probably less, will wish to keep their ballot secret, for any number of reasons, from personal reticence to fear of retribution. These reticent folks should be free to stay shy. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Moreover, there’s nothing coercive envisioned here, as to why anyone should vote, or not vote, or reveal, or not reveal, his or her ballot choice. Nor is there any sort of financial incentive: The suggestions made in this piece, and in this series, are not, in any way, about buying votes, or about offering any sort of remuneration for voting or not voting. Instead, this idea is about giving people credit—psychic income, if they wish to take it—for how they voted. (We will deal more with the mechanics of this in later installments.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Such public voting is, in fact, in keeping with the trend of our times. As noted, social media takes away much of the mystery as to how someone voted, and all the other forms of data-mining take away even more. It’s a safe bet that Facebook or Twitter can know, within a fine degree, how any of its active members voted (and one can apply for absentee ballots on social media). Furthermore, voting by mail takes away the mystery even more: the mere fact that an envelope comes into a post office or voting station tells someone, at least, how the voter voted.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So again, there’s less and less mystery as to how many people vote. So for the sake of more effective and transparent campaigns, why not just own it? Especially if the owning of it helps assure that one’s vote is counted? If all the Republicans in a precinct got together and announced their vote, and showed their ballot to any curious onlooker, then the world would know that, say, 1,000 Republicans voted in that precinct. And they would expect that the vote results showed 1,000 Republicans voted. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But if Republicans announced their votes and their vote total, would Democrats do the same? Quite possibly not. But that sets up the contrast: The GOP “shows its work,” while Democrats do not. So if the GOP is transparent, and the Democrats are not transparent, what does that tell us? </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The idea is that if Republicans are completely transparent about their vote, Democrats might be forced to do the same. And even if they don’t, it’s still useful for Republicans to have a better handle on their own vote—that’s an evolution in campaigning which, again, we will deal with later in this series. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">If the Republican vote is transparent and the Democratic vote is not, the contrast will be obvious, especially if it can otherwise be demonstrated, or at least suggested, that Democrats are somehow fiddling with, or padding, their total. But again, if the GOP vote total is murky, then the Democratic total can be murky, and maybe nobody or nothing will be able to penetrate the murk. That’s been the story of the last few elections, made all the more murky by the new voting modalities. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So we keep colliding with the basic condundrum of anonymity. Anonymity guarantees some modicum of unverifiability: If I’m holding something in my hand and I don’t know who it belongs to, how can I know for sure if it’s real? How can I check its provenance? If someone manages to slip in (or slip out) a crate of paper ballots, nobody can be sure what’s what, or how the voters (if there were any) intended to vote. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add that, given the focus on convenience and the reliance on apps, it’s quite likely that <i>electronic</i> voting is the wave of the future. Republicans will likely oppose electronic voting, but Democrats will likely embrace it. And in many places—most obviously, California—they’ll likely be able to make their preference stick. As we chew on that statement, we might consider the situation today: If you vote, your vote becomes a bit of electronic data;<i> of course </i>it can be hacked or otherwise mulcted. That happens all the time to electronic data: Wikipedia keeps an ever-growing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_data_breaches">list</a><i> </i>of data breaches, affecting billions of files and people. <br />
</p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So here’s a closing thesis-statement to consider: <i>The ultimate solution to vote fraud is to make sure that each vote is linked to an identifiable voter. That way, if there’s a dispute on the count, vote-auditors can check back with the voter to make sure his or her intention has been properly tallied. </i></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><i></i><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">If we do this, we will regain and maintain ballot and electoral legitimacy. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Next: The Inefficiency of Campaigns </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><i></i><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-75998420657540593972023-09-23T07:38:00.007-04:002023-09-24T05:52:22.945-04:00 Securing Elections and Good Governance, Part One<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">First of 13 parts</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">This series is dedicated to a) examining the problem of vote fraud; b) considering a possible solution; and c) further examining how improved election integrity could be a tonic for the overall political process. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>A Crisis of Confidence</b> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The issue of vote fraud and bad balloting continues to vex the American electorate—at least the right half. A June 2023 <a href="https://apnorc.org/projects/partisan-views-of-the-electoral-system/">poll</a> by the Associated Press/NORC found that just 44 percent of Americans have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in election integrity. By contrast, 28 percent said they had a “moderate amount” of confidence, while 27 percent said “only a little” or “none at all.” To be sure, that poll was skewed partisanly: Only 22 percent of Republicans expressed confidence, compared to 71 percent of Democrats. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Those numbers could change, depending on who wins in 2024, and yet it seems safe to predict that whatever the results next year, big chunks of the country will view them as illegitimate. And while the perception of illegitimacy might not be the chief concern of the winner, it should be concerning to the country. And so we should explore ways to restore legitimacy—that’s the point of this 13-part series. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Arizona Agonistes</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can illustrate the concern by looking at what’s happened in Arizona. The GOP candidate for governor in 2022, Kari Lake, lost the election, according to the state’s secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, by <a href="https://results.arizona.vote/#/state/33/0">17,117</a> votes, out of more than 2.5 million ballots cast. In January 2023, the Democratic nominee—the same Katie Hobbs—was sworn in as the state’s 24th governor. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">For her part, Lake has not conceded. She is <a href="https://twitter.com/KariLake">active on Twitter</a>, as is her <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=kari%20lake&src=typed_query">“war room"</a>; both churn out accusations of voting irregularities. Lake says that the 2022 balloting was <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/kari-lake-doubles-down-allegations-botched-election-arizona-1761255">“botched,”</a> that it was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/politics/kari-lake-arizona-governor-race/index.html">“incompetency 101,”</a> that it was run like a <a href="https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1600596302340837376">“banana republic."</a> And she has filed <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kari-lake-maricopa-county-lawsuit-arizona-governors-race-no-concession/">lawsuits</a>, and <a href="https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/12/10/kari-lake-files-lawsuit-overturn-results-arizona-election/1711670648297/">more lawsuits</a>. <a href="https://www.uncoverdc.com/2023/01/24/maricopas-2022-election-evidence-of-continuing-egregious-signature-verification-practices/">Journalistic</a> <a href="http://v">allies</a>, too, have weighed in. For instance, <a href="https://thefederalist.com/2023/01/18/with-25000-mysterious-votes-and-missing-documents-maricopas-2022-election-process-marked-by-chaos-and-uncertainty/"><i>The Federalist</i></a> cites numerous breaches in the “chain of custody” of ballots, as they were moved from voters to tabulators. In a close election, any such breach could invalidate the results ethically, if not legally. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">These claims, serious as they might be, will not change the outcome of the Arizona election. Still, they are worth examining with an eye to future elections. Interestingly, Lake, a strong supporter of Donald Trump, has been on the bad-balloting trail for a long time. Back in October 2022, in the midst of her own gubernatorial campaign, she was challenged by CNN to cite evidence of vote fraud in the <i>2020 </i>presidential election. Lake <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3690678-dana-bash-kari-lake-clash-over-2020-election-fraud-claims?utm_source=hill_app&utm_medium=social&utm_content=share-link">came right back</a>: “Well, there’s plenty of evidence. We had 740,000 ballots with no chain of custody. Those ballots shouldn't have been counted.” Needless to say, at the time, <i>The Washington Post </i>was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/17/arizona-kari-lake-false-fraud-claims-2020-election-trump/">horrified</a> at Lake’s assertion. Yet in the midst of denouncing Lake for making “false claims,” and “seeding doubt,” the <i>Post</i> included this admission about vote-counting in Arizona’s largest county, Maricopa: “officials <a href="https://www.maricopa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/75204/Recorder-BOS-AG-Response-with-Exhibits-5-3-22">acknowledge</a> that a fifth of the forms documenting the transfer of drop-box ballots had incomplete information, including missing signatures.” We can note that Maricopa County accounts for nearly two-thirds of the Grand Canyon State’s population. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In October 2022, Trump’s political operation released a 14-page <a href="https://cdn.nucleusfiles.com/27/27b7896f-01c5-4609-93c7-742e5cb22e96/830-am-final-january-6th-committee-letter14446.pdf?utm_medium=email_hf&utm_source=ncl__&utm_campaign=20221014___sa&utm_content=__6167&_nlid=test123&_nhids=TEST">memo</a> summarizing his overall case on vote fraud in 2020; the document included two pages on Arizona; here’s one item: “A study of early ballot envelope signatures identified 229,430 mismatched signatures in Maricopa County”—that is, dubious ballots totaling nearly 20 times Trump’s state margin of defeat.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So when Lake <a href="https://twitter.com/KariLakeWarRoom/status/1600722017028034563">says</a>, about her own election, “53% of the polling locations didn’t work on election day,” that squares at least somewhat with election-day <a href="https://www.azfamily.com/video/2022/11/09/long-lines-vote-across-maricopa-county/">news reports</a> about vote-problems in Maricopa, as well as elsewhere. Indeed, as recently as September 19, Lake was still making investigation-worthy arguments <a href="https://twitter.com/emeraldrobinson/status/1704202430550859784?s=43&t=x0C-OBtoQnTAziZ8vUK4VQ">in court filings</a>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">It was, after all, a close election: Hobbs’ lead over Lake amounted to just six-tenths of one percent. Interestingly, seven cases from Arizona in 2022 feature in the Heritage Foundations’s <a href="https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud">vote-fraud database</a>; maintained by widely published election expert <a href="https://www.heritage.org/staff/hans-von-spakovsky">Hans von Spakovksky</a>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So now come some more allegations, including about Arizona, in the form of September 18 <a href="https://twitter.com/rasmussen_poll/status/1703933693977325969?s=43&t=x0C-OBtoQnTAziZ8vUK4VQ">tweets</a> from Rasmussen: </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Arizona: Preliminary AZ Senate Forensic Ballot Audit Findings - over 200,000 “non-conforming” 2020 ballots</b></p>
<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p>
<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Georgia: Court claim total of “non-conforming" 2020 ballots still locked up - “nearly 150,000.”</b></p>
<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 24px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 27px;"><b></b><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Arizona: 2020 Biden “win” margin - 10,457 “votes”</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Georgia: 2020 Biden “win” margin - 11,779 ‘votes’</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 24px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 27px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Rasmussen concludes: “</span>Get-Out-The-Vote efforts, early voting, ballot chasing, political rallies and traditional political advertising are all useless if there is an alternative source of fabricated ‘votes.’” That’s certainly a stark way of putting the matter. And there was <a href="https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1705203228705460604">more</a> from Rasmussen: “Only 1 official ballot paper type was approved in Maricopa County AZ for all 2020 election counted ballots, yet 10 types were discovered by voter-volunteers amounting to over 200,000 ‘non-conforming’ ballots that were all counted in a race Joe Biden ‘won’ by far far less.”</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Do these add up to substantive allegations? About the only thing we know for sure is that the U.S. Department of Justice, supposedly the watchdog of national election integrity, will not be interested. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Does the GOP have a robust plan for ballot security in 2024? We’ll have to see. But it is interesting that Trump himself seems to be more forceful in identifying the problem than in pointing to a solution. In August 2023, he told <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/tucker-on-x-debate-night-interview-with-donald-trump-transcript">Tucker Carlson</a>, “We got many <span style="color: #262626;">more votes</span> in today than we did in '16, but the election was rigged. It was a rigged election. And with COVID, they used COVID to cheat and a lot of <span style="color: #262626;">different things</span>.” The following month, speaking to <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/former-president-donald-trump-on-bidens-impeachment/id1532976305?i=1000627910089">Megyn Kelly</a>, Trump added, “They used Covid to cheat, they cheat anyway. . . . throw they votes out . . . I believe they send in fake ballots.” Trump has made such allegations, in fact, many time in the past three years. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can observe that while cheating and fraud are real, there are the myriad issues of identification, ballot security, proper counting—all of which fall into the gray zone of ambiguity, depending on the good faith (or bad faith) of the actors. For instance, New York State’s determination to <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/new-york-set-to-expand-early-voting-by-mail-but-legal-challenges-are-likely">facilitate voting by mail</a> has been hit with pushback from <a href="https://twitter.com/gopchairwoman/status/1704538291511390473?s=43&t=x0C-OBtoQnTAziZ8vUK4VQ">Republicans</a>, who call it an “unconstitutional law to make voting less secure for political gain.” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In addition, there’s the emerging trend of <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4212614-pennsylvania-to-start-automatic-voter-registration/">automatic voter registration</a> (ARV) as just enacted by the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania. Is this a good idea? Former Democratic president and <a href="https://twitter.com/barackobama?s=43">Barack Obama</a> is convinced it is. But conservative activist <a href="https://mailchi.mp/ca35180383ac/unleash-prosperity-hotline-857-weekend-edition-868268?e=f96f99b526">Steve Moore</a> describes, critically, how ARV works out in practice: </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Pennsylvania joins almost two dozen states — almost all of them Blue — that have automatic registration. People are automatically added to the rolls whenever they have contact with certain state agencies, including unemployment offices and welfare agencies. Sign up for food stamps and the government gives you a ballot. </b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In other words, voting and politicization become inextricably tied up in social welfare. And so it seems that the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward%E2%80%93Piven_strategy">Cloward-Piven Strategy</a> is edging closer to reality. Is this what Republicans want? Is this what the country should want? And Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111117112250924380">weighed in</a>, too: </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFJxga370Op-zhqCR0_wx1AenWsdXbCTZNEpAvqr2lshcOsN-Rs-JcWml3AidXnG-WRkj8KDQa0g7b_YoByWycvrFgymM8aw2feKVQxo4rqcBpJ0g_JN7YdysQBeN1ZUlUt4M_pLkaRWIHQUx3l5DQmmx-tL9aV_1sIk0osNdyqPw8v3vU9rma-w/s742/Screen%20Shot%202023-09-24%20at%205.47.15%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="387" data-original-width="742" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFJxga370Op-zhqCR0_wx1AenWsdXbCTZNEpAvqr2lshcOsN-Rs-JcWml3AidXnG-WRkj8KDQa0g7b_YoByWycvrFgymM8aw2feKVQxo4rqcBpJ0g_JN7YdysQBeN1ZUlUt4M_pLkaRWIHQUx3l5DQmmx-tL9aV_1sIk0osNdyqPw8v3vU9rma-w/s320/Screen%20Shot%202023-09-24%20at%205.47.15%20AM.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Pressure Points</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To help get us our arms around the overall topic of ballots and ballot integrity, we might consider some numbers illustrating the sheer immensity of American elections: According to the <a href="https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/document_library/files/EAVSDeepDive_pollworkers_pollingplaces_nov17.pdf">Election Assistance Commission</a>, a federal agency, “During the 2016 elections, local election officials operated 116,990 polling places, including 8,616 early voting locations, across the country. These polling sites were operated by 917,694 poll workers.” So that’s a lot of nodes, or pressure points, right there, any one of which could potentially fail, either by commission or omission. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add, now, the tens of millions of mailed ballots—such that every home, every dropbox and mailbox, is a new node—so the number of points of potential vulnerability swells into the hundreds of millions. Even if we assume the best of faith, it’s hard to see how to keep track of all that. In November 2022, Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/109427728913270492"><span style="color: #2443ff;">wrote</span></a> on his Truth Social website, in all caps, “YOU CAN NEVER HAVE FAIR & FREE ELECTIONS WITH MAIL-IN BALLOTS — NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. WON’T AND CAN’T HAPPEN!!!” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet mail-in ballots are here to say. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/11/20/the-voting-experience-in-2020/">Forty-six percent</a> of voters voted by mail in 2020. And while “only” <a href="https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/44440-how-americans-cast-their-votes-2022-election?redirect_from=/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/11/16/how-americans-cast-their-votes-2022-election">33 percent</a> did so in 2022, another 25 percent voted early, which means that barely more than two-fifths voted in the “traditional” way, showing up at the polls on Tuesday. Most 2022 mail voters returned their ballot by U.S. mail, but about one-third returned it to a vote center or ballot dropbox. So it’s a new world, with all the questions and mysteries inherent to a new world. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Moreover, down the road is an even newer world, <i>electronic</i> voting. Republicans might hate the idea that Silicon Valley will be more involved, but that doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t do it, starting in, say, California. So we could see a split-screen future: blue states stay with mail-in ballots, and perhaps move to e-voting, while red states stick with paper. We can all have opinions on this prospect, but maybe it’s best to keep a federalist perspective: This might have been what Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis had in mind when he wrote, back in 1932, of the states as “laboratories of democracy.” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Of course, many will argue that the solidity and tangibility of a paper ballot is reassuring. And yet ballots of <i>any</i> kind still need to be counted—<a href="http://v">159,633,396</a> were cast in the 2020 presidential election—and that’ll take some electronics. And with that automation in the tallying, so enters the dragon of electro-uncertainty. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Hacking</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><i></i><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As we chew on the reality of this electro-uncertainty, we might consider the situation today: If you vote, and your vote becomes a byte of electronic data, as it must,<i> of course </i>it can be hacked or otherwise mulcted. That’s what happens all the time to electronic data: It gets hacked. Wikipedia keeps an ever-growing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_data_breaches">list</a><i> </i>of data breaches, affecting billions of files and people. Of course, the government is not immune: One notorious <a href="https://www.wired.com/2016/10/inside-cyberattack-shocked-us-government/">victim</a> was the Office of Personnel Management; as one official put it in 2015, “We believe that the Central Personnel Data File was the targeted database, and that the hackers are now in possession of all personnel data for every federal employee, every federal retiree, and up to one million former federal employees.” There’ve been many hacks since, as well as related <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/snafu">snafus</a>. For instance, just last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced that it had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-sec-reopen-comment-periods-some-rules-after-tech-glitch-2022-10-07/">lost</a> many public comments on proposed new rules—and so it would re-open the comment window. (Better luck this time, commenters!) Additionally, the categories of “hack” and “snafu” don’t include situations where a disgruntled or treacherous worker simply <i>steals</i> the beans, as was the case with now-Russian citizen Edward Snowden. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So hacking is as plain as the pixel on your screen—and just as fast moving: If you rely on an electronic activity, somebody, somewhere, can mess with it. And quite possibly, do so without leaving any trace. Perhaps most urgently, if voting is anonymous, then there’s no way to do a true forensic audit, because the <i>vote</i> has been disconnected from the <i>voter</i>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">One might wonder: Could blockchain make things better? After all, blockchain touts itself as guaranteeing <i>both</i> privacy and security. But here’s a newsflash that shouldn’t count as news: Blockchain and the related crypto can’t guarantee either. They, too, can be <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/hackers-steal-around-100-million-cryptocurrency-binance-linked-blockchain-2022-10-07/">hacked</a>. And of course, as the case of Sam Bankman-Fried at FTX shows us, outright fraud, on a mega scale, is also possible. It seems that for every smart person trying to figure out how to keep data secure, there’s another smart person trying to figure out how to make it <i>in</i>secure.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So that’s what we’re up against as we strive to keep our elections honest. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Next: The Quest for Legitimacy in Elections</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-78996415692313620222023-09-05T07:23:00.006-04:002023-09-05T08:15:54.778-04:00 “The FDA is Not a Physician.” Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Economic Development<p><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">The Sound of Freedom</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The bad news is that an ongoing court case in Texas offers a window into the workings of a not-so-benevolent health bureaucracy, more interested in having its way than in helping patients. The good news is that this meddling is backfiring, and so the same window could light the way to genuine health reform and more personal freedom. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The case in question concerns the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s efforts to squelch the treatment of disease. That’s right, the FDA has been playing national nanny, intruding between patients and their doctors. Indeed, the agency has been proud of its efforts, basking in praise from the medical establishment and the mainstream media. Yet this troika-combine—bureaucratic, technocratic, and journalistic elites, sharing a superiority complex—has hit roadblocks: first, popular resistance, and second, a slapdown from a high court. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">You see, the doctors that the FDA had been targeting fought back in court, mobilizing public support along the way. And on September 1, having reviewed the case, a three-judge panel from the Court of Appeals for Fifth Circuit—which covers Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi— <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vbZ_QnddcaG_cGNu55-ypNTUa13NPBrQ/view?pli=1">declared</a>, “The FDA is not a phsyician.” That’s the sound of freedom, potentially, far beyond this specific case. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The judges were responding to the FDA’s campaign of harassment against three physicians, <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertApter1">Robert L. Apter</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/mdbreathe">Mary Talley Bowden</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/drpaulmarik1">Paul E. Marik</a>, all of them MDs. The three doctors had prescribed—and, even worse in the eyes of Big Health, publicly advocated for—ivermectin as a treatment for Covid-19. You know ivermectin: the drug the MSM routinely dismisses as a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/09/01/ivermectin-covid-treatment/">“horse dewormer,”</a> never minding that there’s a human version of the drug (long ago described as a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3043740/">“wonder drug,”</a> in fact), which has an <a href="https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/can-ivermectin-treat-arthritis-vaids?publication_id=400535&post_id=136665153&isFreemail=true">astonishing variety of uses</a>. And yet in the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/31/ivermectin-is-signature-example-politics-trumping-health/">elite view</a>, ivermectin is the signature Covid treatment for right-wing, Trumpy people, and so it <i>can’t</i> be good. According to this politicized and polarized thinking, the main goal seems to be, not maximizing public health, but rather, never giving <i>them</i> a win. Yes, there’s the medical struggle against Covid, and there’s the class struggle against wrong think by the proles—and which do the elites think is more important? </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Rule of Dogma </b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We might pause to observe that organizations and interests tend to develop dogmas. That is, some belief system that defines the institution, and imbues its adherents with a sense of mission and passion. When such dogmas emerge in a bureaucracy, zealously believing bureaucrats can be quite insistent on getting their way. That is, the desire to win the point gets the better of any rational cost-benefit analysis. Depending on the issue, we can like or dislike the dogma, but no matter where we stand, we should at least recognize that dogma imposed on others is the <i>opposite</i> of freedom. And so it is that Dogmatic Big Health has come to oppose most Covid treatments.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Broadly speaking, liberals, Democrats, and blue states have supported masks and vaccines to combat Covid. Indeed, four years after we first heard of the virus, <a href="https://www.the-express.com/news/health/110540/new-york-ncovid-variant-Pirola-masks-labor-day">masks</a> and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-will-the-next-covid-vaccine-be-available-and-who-should-get-it/">vaccines</a> are still the favored “blue” approach. By contrast, conservatives, Republicans, and red states, opposing masks and vaccines, have supported Covid treatment as might be needed. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So we can see the conflict: In the mind of Blue, if you follow its prescription (vaccines and masks), you won’t get Covid. And yet if you reject vaccines and masks, blue thinking does, there’s something wrong with you, and so if you get the disease, well, maybe you <i>deserve</i> it. Or at least, your getting Covid will encourage the others to mask up and get vaxxed. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">At the same time, since Red mistrusts Blue, it increasingly rejects its masks and vaccines; instead, Red wants options for Covid treatment. Without much help from Blue, Red has been searching around for the best, as well as least expensive, treatments. Enter Drs. Apter, Talley Bowden, and Marik, who are just three of thousands of physicians, and other healthcare providers, who have been scanning, experimenting, and prescribing. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Interestingly, one of the few Covid treatments that Blue’s bureaucratic enforcer, the FDA, approves of is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir">Remdesivir</a>, sold as <a href="https://www.vekluryhcp.com/?gclid=CjwKCAjw3dCnBhBCEiwAVvLcu_E3F-MOlpzUXbLdTdY7R1-WRRbAfrgmUB9ghxjt-tTrFchjas4QVhoCOAMQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds">Veklury</a>, made by Gilead, a pillar of Big Pharma and thus trusted by Blue. Veklury’s sticker price, for the prescribed five-day treatment, is $2,340. That’s a lot of money, although, of course, typically insurance companies, or U.S. government agencies, end up footing the bill, which is often negotiated downward. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet in point of fact, Blue doesn’t mind paying big money for approved Covid treatments. The feds, after all, spent at least <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ventilators-insigh/the-u-s-has-spent-billions-stockpiling-ventilators-but-many-wont-save-critically-ill-covid-19-patients-idUSKBN28C1N6#">$3 billion</a> on ventilators, which seem to do more harm that good, and yet nevertheless were a part of the approved orthodoxy. Why this free spendingness? Because Blue seems more interested in maintaining its orthodoxy: <i>Use only the methods and treatments that we recommend. </i>So that meant ventilators for a while (until it became too obvious that ventilators were actually <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8450704/#:~:text=In%20conclusion,%20our%20study%20confirmed,medical%20condition%20and%20elder%20patients.">hurting patients</a>) and now, Remdesivir/Veklury. In this ortho-maintenance effort, the FDA is joined by liked-minded federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the major federal paymaster, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">These four agencies, as well as myriad public, quasi-public, and private allies, share a common view: They are correct in their recommendations, because, after all, they are the experts. So that means treatments coming from on high are right and treatments favored by those down below are wrong, wrong, wrong, not just medically, but <i>morally</i>. These lower types of treatment, to be shunned, include not only ivermectin but also hydroxychloroquine, vitamin C, and zinc—a fuller list can be found on the website <a href="https://c19early.org">C19 Early</a>. Interestingly, these hoped-for treatments tend to be generic drugs, or even dirt-cheap commodities; that’s one more reason why Red is so interested in them: because if it’s exploring unorthodox ideas, Red will get no financial help from Blue. Indeed, Blue will even attack Red. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Dogmatic Action</b> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Blue has been trying to crush Red, seeking to squelch the thought that Red could know what it’s doing Covid-wise. One tool for squelching has been <a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/aug/31/sen-ron-johnson-says-cdc-pressured-social-media-ce/">censorship on social media</a>, and yet in addition, the FDA has taken to social media to deliver its own message. Back on August 21, 2021, the FDA <a href="https://twitter.com/US_FDA/status/1429050070243192839">tweeted</a>. “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.” And then the FDA linked to an extended statement, <a href="https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/why-you-should-not-use-ivermectin-treat-or-prevent-covid-19">headlined</a>, “Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19.” The agency also <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CS1giIfJ0sa/">Instagrammed</a> the same message. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet FDA was not content with just exhortation. It actively wanted to kibosh the careers of visible opponents. The intensity of that campaign is seen in the case of the three docs, Apter, Talley Bowden, and Marik. Reporting on the legal proceedings, <i>Courthouse News</i> <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/fifth-circuit-sides-with-ivermectin-prescribing-doctors-in-their-quarrel-with-the-fda/">summarized</a> the agency’s effort on September 1, “The FDA’s campaign caused [the three doctors] problems: A major Houston hospital system forced Talley Bowden to resign her privileges; Apter was referred to physician regulatory boards of Arizona and Washington state for discipline; Marik was forced to resign from his post at Eastern Virginia Medical School, where he was a medical professor and chief of pulmonary and critical care.” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Okay, so that’s some heavy kiboshing. The FDA has, in fact, operated that way for a long time. However, in our time, the forces of opposition—the forces of <i>freedom</i>—are more organized, more articulate, and, thanks to the internet, more able to do its own research and to share ideas. Also, crucially, resistors have been more able to draw upon legal resources. So the three doctors found legal counsel from <a href="https://boydengray.com/contact/">Boyden Gray PLLC</a>, the law firm founded by the late C. Boyden Gray, a well-known figure in conservative legal circles, whom I eulogized <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/05/29/pinkerton-in-memoriam-c-boyden-gray-the-man-who-warned-us-about-the-administrative-state/">here</a>. Gray served as counsel to George H.W. Bush during his eight years as vice president, 1981 to 1989, and his four years as president, 1989-1993. From that vantage point, Gray participated in all the great legal-policy events of those dozen years, including the epochal Senate confirmation fight of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Another positive Gray legacy, germane to any issue concerning the FDA, is the <a href="https://administrativestate.gmu.edu">C. Boyden Gray Center for the Study of the Administrative State</a>, a unit of the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University. Thanks to Gray and many others, the public’s understanding of the so-called “fourth branch” of government—the alphabet soup of regulatory agencies—has improved in recent years, and much of that new understanding is critical and reform-minded. How did these agencies, including the FDA, get to be so powerful, and what can be done to make them operate within constitutional metes and bounds? All important questions, in need of further debate and deeper understanding. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In other words, the Gray firm was the perfect choice to represent Drs. Apter, Talley Bowden, and Marik in their fight against the FDA. The plaintiffs had originally filed suit against the agency in June 2022, objecting to its campaign of harassment against them, but in December of last year, a U.S. District Court judge <a href="https://www.emilypostnews.com/p/fda-ivermectin-lawsuit-dismissed">dismissed</a> accepting FDA’s claim that it was immune from such suits. But then, in February 2023, with help from the group <a href="https://americasfrontlinedoctors.org/about-us/press-releases/apter-m-d-et-al-v-dhhs-et-al-aflds-files-an-updated-brief-in-support-of-a-brave-group-of-doctors-in-their-suit-against-the-fda-s-anti-ivermectin-propaganda-campaign">America’s Frontline Doctors</a>, Gray took on the case, seeking to reinstate the lawsuit. And so on September 1 came the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vbZ_QnddcaG_cGNu55-ypNTUa13NPBrQ/view?pli=1">ruling</a> from the three-judge appeals court panel, the honor roll consisting of Don R. Willett, Edith B. Clement, and Jennifer W. Elrod. In deciding that the doctors’ suit could continue, the judicial trio opined, “FDA is not a physician. It has authority to inform, announce, and apprise—but not to endorse, denounce, or advise. The Doctors have plausibly alleged that FDA’s Posts fell on the wrong side of the line between telling about and telling to.” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In the <a href="https://twitter.com/DrJBhattacharya/status/1697986110960607299">words</a> of mask- and vax critic Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, “A big loss for the @US_FDA, which overstepped its authority and competence during the pandemic.” In fact, there’s more at stake here than just a single legal case, important as that case is. Bhattacharya went further, <a href="https://twitter.com/drjbhattacharya/status/1698858812739104776?s=43&t=x0C-OBtoQnTAziZ8vUK4VQ">tweeting</a>, “Public health officials, in their ridiculous and anti-scientific messaging & policies about the covid vaccine, all but guaranteed that a substantial portion of the public would lose trust in public health officials and in vaccines more generally.” That’s the real import; people no longer trust Big Health to make decisions for them. To put it another way, the fundamentals of official medical expertise and public trust are out of alignment, and that means, in a democracy, that there will have to be a realignment. That is, a new political settlement based on this changed understanding of governmental legitimacy. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can see this larger and more profound potential in those words of the appeals court, <i>FDA is not a physician. </i>There’s a heckuva thought there, the idea that the FDA does not know more about treating you than does your doctor—or maybe you yourself. It might seem obvious that doctors and patients know more about localized facts than some distant bureaucracy. Indeed, in this era of personalized medicine, aided by big data and all the other advanced techniques, it’s all the more obvious that FDA is an inferior source of knowledge, especially about an individual’s unique medical situation. And yet the law—including the sneaky accretion of law that is the essence of the administrative state—says otherwise. According to the current regime, the FDA knows better, for all 335 million of us, and it must be obeyed. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet of course, many disagree, and those disagreers are now organized, to wit, the Apter-Talley Bowden-Marik lawsuit, which has been closely covered by many journalists, including <a href="https://www.emilypostnews.com/p/fda-is-not-a-physician-federal-appeals">Emily Miller</a>, who has written about this case with passion, as well as professionalism. “This case has broad implications for protecting the practice of medicine from unlawful interference by the FDA,” said <a href="https://twitter.com/BoydenGrayAssoc/status/1698178841880006888">Jared Kelson</a>, a lawyer with Gray, speaking after the judges’ ruling. “It’s about ensuring that federal agencies act only within their statutory authority. The FDA crossed a bright line here.” </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>A New Order for the Age</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We’ll have to see how this particular legal case unfolds, but this much we know already: A big chunk of the public mistrusts the FDA/CDC/NIH establishment. For instance, a poll from last year found that just <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/only-44-percent-americans-trust-what-cdc-has-said-about-covid-poll-1671988">44 percent</a> of Americans trust what the CDC has been saying about Covid. To be sure, polls can be all over the place, depending on how the questions are worded and the reliability of the pollster. Wisely, the country is not governed by polls, but rather, by the Constitution. And the Constitution allows for plenty of freedom and diversity, both for individuals and <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2022/12/the-virginia-resolution-at-224-still.html">states</a>. Fully exercising that freedom, Americans across the 50nstates have widely diverse opinions on, for instance, former NIH official Dr. Anthony Fauci; some admire him, others revile him. That’s freedom for you.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The Constitution should, indeed, be a bulwark against the one-size-fits-all bulldozer of the federal government’s administrative state. At the same time, the Constitution should provide protection for heterodox opinion, including on medical matters. Here we can learn from Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. who wrote famously in <a href="https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/455/united-states-v-schwimmer">1929</a>, “If there is any principle of the Constitution that more imperatively calls for attachment than any other it is the principle of free thought—not free thought for those who agree with us but freedom for the thought that we hate.” That’s the sometimes uncomfortable essence of free speech: If it’s really free, it includes the speech we <i>hate</i>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So now, why shouldn’t the same principle apply to medicine? Why shouldn’t doctors be free to prescribe what they think best for their patients? Why shouldn’t patients themselves be free to choose what they see to be the best path? And if someone else thinks that path is abhorrent, well, here’s where that Holmes quote comes in. Just as with free speech, free medicine might well include things we <i>hate</i>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To be sure, the larger society has rights, too. And there are tried-and-true methods for protecting public health and the community, based on common law, as well as, of course, the Constitution. But as to the individual and his or her doctor, there are privileges and immunities that should always be protected. And if, in fact, they haven’t been protected in recent years and decades, then they need to be <i>restored</i>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">That’s what could be happening in Texas now. And if the fate of the court case is uncertain, the Texas state government could step in, enacting a law to protect the liberty of doctors and patients. There’s no reason why Texas should bow down to the <i>diktat</i> of the FDA or any other dubiously constitutional element of the administrative state. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And of course, states other than Texas could stand up for themselves. Plenty of other states could seize the moment to instantiate the principle: <i>FDA is not a physician. </i>The result would be profound, albeit not completely new. As Thomas Jefferson said, We don’t need new ideas, we simply must rediscover the American mind. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In such a rediscovery, we would see the proper reassertion of federalism, <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2022/12/the-virginia-resolution-at-224-still.html">the self-determination of the states</a> within the federal union. Some states, perhaps many, would choose to keep the FDA in charge of their medical and entrepreneurial destinies, exactly as today. To borrow a phrase, <i>If you like your FDA you can keep it</i>. Same with CDC, and its rules. This country is, after all, diverse, and so the rights of blue states, as well as red states, should be protected. If Blue prefers the status quo, so be it. However, Blue shouldn’t be able to impose on Red, and vice versa. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As for the forces of medical freedom—which is also personal health freedom, and entrepreneurial freedom—they don’t need to win everywhere. They just need to win <i>somewhere</i>. Perhaps in Texas, perhaps in some other state, or states. And if so, then the next grand experiment in federalism—the states as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laboratories_of_democracy#:~:text=This%20concept%20explains%20how%20within,least)%20to%20the%20scientific%20method.">laboratories of democracy</a>--will commence. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Such experimentation could and should extend far beyond Covid. Patients and doctors working to combat every malady know about the wet blanket—more often, the dead hand—of the FDA. And so they all, too, would benefit from a new era of freedom. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><div><br /></div>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-51338912569231113502023-09-02T11:29:00.003-04:002023-09-05T18:33:44.828-04:00 Overcoming "Too Big to Flourish": Making Money on the Cutting Edge—For Companies and Countries <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsLrmaXoWprX2C1xOIiUkV0bDrewos29pdRhiaGiynRZyQG4PYul206fboW7RmkNpF0fGzZPdqH2Q5IAjjnV3bHhCRIpJS7JoyDn0ngFEAJXxjASVpajGYpJzFK9UTJk1iO5Vh2diha_1jgNCa_pC3W8yvm7v2tAB3uaSNVK5utXaDlNwregQtuw/s1014/Screenshot%202023-09-02%20at%2011.27.52%20AM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="1014" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsLrmaXoWprX2C1xOIiUkV0bDrewos29pdRhiaGiynRZyQG4PYul206fboW7RmkNpF0fGzZPdqH2Q5IAjjnV3bHhCRIpJS7JoyDn0ngFEAJXxjASVpajGYpJzFK9UTJk1iO5Vh2diha_1jgNCa_pC3W8yvm7v2tAB3uaSNVK5utXaDlNwregQtuw/s320/Screenshot%202023-09-02%20at%2011.27.52%20AM.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Creative Ossification </b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Companies start out small and rambunctious, and then, if they get big, they grow more cautious. They become <i>too big to flourish</i>, or at least too big to maximize. That means that big companies are leaving money on the table. And come to think of it, if we extend the point to other institutions, that means that big <i>governments, </i>too, are leaving money on the table, as they stymie potential economic growth in their countries. So shareholders and citizens, both, lose out. There are ways to fix this, but first, let’s take a closer look at this syndrome, <i>too big to flourish.</i> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Y Combinator partner <a href="https://twitter.com/snowmaker/status/1696026604030595497">Jared Friedman</a> points out that many of the hottest and/or trailblazing-est companies were, in his words, “between questionable and flat-out illegal in their early days.” They were <i>disruptors</i>, living by the entrepreneurial-piratical dictum of hacking, of moving fast and breaking things. (Plenty more companies, present as well as past, can be put into this category, including, in the view of <a href="https://www.techtarget.com/whatis/feature/AI-lawsuits-explained-Whos-getting-sued#:~:text=Authors,%20artists%20and%20others%20are,train%20AI%20systems%20without%20permission.&text=Many%20people%20feel%20it's%20time,generative%20systems%20big%20and%20strong.">many litigants</a>, the hot AI companies.) Others in Friedman’s tweet/X thread, such as <a href="https://twitter.com/Scobleizer/status/1696056022434263461">Robert Scoble</a>, reinforced his point, recalling the risk-aversion of big established companies. For instance, Microsoft, founded in 1975, rocketed to prominence and controversy in the 1980s, and yet in the 90s, it had a fateful anti-trust collision with the U.S. Justice Department. After that, bruising encounter, the company built up a giant legal department dedicated, seemingly, to “just saying no.” In fact, most, if not all, big companies have had some sort of traumatic legal/regulatory experience that makes them less willing to take risks. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So that seems to be the cycle: Companies get their start as swashbucklers, and perhaps corner-cutters, and then, after awhile, if they’re still in existence, they become “housebroken”—they no longer wish to fly, as it were, the corporate <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jolly_Roger">Jolly Roger</a>. That doesn’t mean that the company can’t still be successful, but it does suggest that it has reached the flatter upper part of the S-curve, as growth downshifts, from exponential to perhaps arithmetic. To put this another way, once a company is big and established—including the instantiation of a big legal unit—it will likely miss out on opportunities. (As well as, of course, <i>liabilities</i>—in ye olden days, plenty of actual pirates swung from yardarms, or went down to the vasty deep, unremembered; it’s the pirates who succeeded and survived, at least for a while, that we most remember, and that selective remembrance biases our understanding of the risk/reward ratio of buccaneering.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">One manifestation of this risk-aversion has been the difficulty big tech companies have had developing AI. As Bloomberg News <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2023-07-13/ex-google-scientists-kickstarted-the-generative-ai-era-of-chatgpt-midjourney">reported</a> in July, many of the smartest AI techies are Google alumni. As in, they developed AI <i>after</i> they left Google. They had their AI ideas at Google, but were unable to get clearance from the company to proceed with their AI plans. With enough lawyers on hand, there’s always a reason why something can’t go forward. So these AI nerds quit Google and started their own companies, which now boast a cumulative value of $4 billion. To be sure, a few billion is not much compared to parent company Alphabet's current market cap of $1.72 trillion. And yet one might recall that a mere quarter-century ago, Google was just a tiny upstart against such big search engines as Altavista, Excite and Lycos. In a fast-fluxing environment, valuations can change swiftly. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, in another piece <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-27/amazon-google-scramble-to-keep-pace-with-openai-despite-huge-ai-teams?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner">headlined</a>, “Tech’s AI Armies Are Huge, Yet Struggling to Innovate,” Bloomberg further reports that Amazon has had the same problem as Google. That is, more is actually less. And that explains why Amazon has had so much trouble with <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:da854a4cc094b:0-amazon-s-executive-david-limp-retires-after-13-years/">Alexa</a>, which debuted in 2014 as an early stab at AI, but which now is an also-ran. The lesson seems to be that in this realm of cutting-edge technology, bigness and nimbleness just don’t go well together. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We could say that this is a form of creative destruction, but it’s perhaps more accurate to say, with apologies to Joseph Schumpeter, it’s a form of creative <i>ossification</i>. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So what can we conclude? One thing’s for sure: There’s money in diversity. Not, of course, the diversity of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion)-type human resource programs. Yes, DEI has been lucrative for a favored few, but it’s hard to see how it results in any sort of overall productivity increase—and it’s easier, in fact, to see how it <i>subtracts</i> wealth. Instead, the fruitful diversity is the proliferation of institutions and systems. It’s within that kind diversity that opportunities arise: opportunities for experimentation and arbitrage. To be sure, there are risks, too, because let’s face it: Most new ideas are bad ideas. So the challenge is tapping into the energetic upside while limiting the damaging downside. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Disruptor’s Dilemma</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As we think of institutional structures and their strictures, we might recall the work of the British naturalist D’Arcy Wentworth Thompson (1860-1948), who observed of mollusks, crustaceans, and other shelled creatures, <i>Form enables growth, but form limits growth.</i> That is, the form of a shell enables the organism to survive and grow, but only up to a certain point—the largest shelled creature on earth, the sea turtle, maxes out at <a href="https://theturtlehub.com/sea-turtle-size-how-big-can-sea-turtles-get/">eight feet</a>. Beyond that size, the laws of physical biology stop growth and other forms of evolution. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, as we move to the realm of <i>Homo sapiens </i>and the institutions mankind has created, we see variations on that theme, as bureaucratization sets in, limiting economic exuberance and thus expansion. Many have written smartly about aspects of this syndrome, giving us important concepts such as Parkinson's Law and the Peter Principle. More recently, in <i>The Innovator's Dilemma</i>, the late Clayton Christensen added another layer of understanding. As Christensen observed, established companies don’t always utilize a good idea. Why not? Because they figure that the new idea could cannibalize an existing product. Such reasoning can be persuasive on the margin, and yet it’s usually a losing hand in the end. Classic example: Xerox and digital imaging. Xerox pioneered the new technology, but didn’t want to market it, because doing so would undercut sales of its familiar Xerox machines. Xerox’s reticence left it to other firms, such as Hewlett-Packard, not inhibited by affection for legacy products, to charge into the market for digital imaging, thereby demolishing Xerox. So we could combine Friedman’s point on youthful risk-taking with Christensen’s point about mature risk-aversion and speak, overall, of the <i>Disruptor's Dilemma. </i>That is, what starts out small and risk-taking becomes big and risk-avoiding.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Governments and Risk</b> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Now can apply this point to other organizations, such as the U.S. federal government, the largest (at least in dollar terms) bureaucratic organization in the world. Does the USG allow for experimentation? Sometimes it does. That was the case with, for instance, the Manhattan Project, eight decades ago, or the Pentagon’s DARPA today. Yet for the most part, the answer is, <i>No, the USG does not encourage innovation—often, in fact, opposes it. </i></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><i></i><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">One can even say that much of the time, this operational conservatism is somewhere between <i>proper</i> and <i>inevitable</i>. That is, the government <i>ought</i> to be cautious and sober-minded, checked and balanced as it is, both by the Constitution (good) and by accumulated interests (not always so good). Fair enough. But there’s a tradeoff, then, in terms of the economic-unleashing power of disruption. That is, the more stolidity, the less creativity. Indeed, it does seem that today, the U.S. government is suffering from what Jonathan Rauch called “demosclerosis.” Government as a pitiful helpless giant. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So what to do? The most obvious answer is to get the government out of the way and let private-sector players take the risks. And that, of course, is happening all around us, as Friedman reminds. These capitalistic animal spirits are what give the U.S. economy the somewhat raffish fizz that distinguishes it from Europe’s, or even from that of next-door Canada. (The outstanding contemporary exemplar of this American raffishness is Elon Musk: Born in South Africa, he first moved to Canada, and then to the U.S., where his “hardcore” energy has been on full display, as seen in this <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-twitter-x-takeover-walter-isaacson-5f553fa">excerpt</a> from a forthcoming Musk biography.) </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, it seems likely that American gray-area freedom will sharpen the economic contrast, as time goes by, between the U.S. and China. Under Xi Jinping's increasingly Brezhnev-y rule, that country is not only <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-latest-problem-people-dont-want-to-go-there-7d17a83a">scaring away</a> tourists and investors, but also stultifying its <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-age-stagnation">day-to-day existence. </a> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But there’s still the issue of optimum governance here in the U.S. Can and should the USG encourage/allow for more imagination? Once again, there’s good reason for Uncle Sam to be careful. And yet, at the same time, down that seemingly prudent path is the mire of stagnation. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Laboratories of Destiny</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Happily, even if the feds are choked, there’s still a possible solution,. Namely, <i>federalism</i>, or, to be blunter about it, <i>states' rights.</i> Let the states be the “laboratories of democracy,” as Justice Louis Brandeis wrote so electrically back in 1932. (And as I have written about, with less electricity, <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/2022/12/the-virginia-resolution-at-224-still.html">here</a>). If Uncle Sam can’t be the equivalent of Uber, or YouTube, or the other cutting-edge companies Friedman cites, maybe an American state could be the disruptor, or, more precisely, facilitate the disruption. That is, a state could loosen the legal strings, letting entrepreneurs and perhaps other kinds of activists try something new. Whether the “lab-experiment” works out for good or ill, the effect would be compartmentalized within the single U.S. state. So if need be, the policy could be terminated without risking the national whole. Or, of course, if the experiment works, it could be replicated. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Such experimentation is what Nevada did on gambling; interestingly enough, the hinge-year, when the state legalized casinos, was 1931, almost the same time that Brandeis was extolling state-based experimentation. As Nevada has since proved, states aren’t just laboratories of democracy, but also laboratories of <i>prosperity</i>. To be sure, Nevada’s isn’t the only way, but it’s one way. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, even as the federal government has grown larger and more intrusive, the states have never given up their role as experimenters. For instance, two-third of the states have <a href="https://www.governing.com/archive/state-marijuana-laws-map-medical-recreational.html">legalized marijuana</a> in at least some form. Yet interestingly, pot is still <i>il</i>legal under federal law. So there's a profound contradiction, between the national government and state governments. It's an unresolved issue, legally and constitutionally. For its part, the liberal-minded Biden administration doesn't seem to be concerned about the prevalence of pot. So it will be interesting to see what, if anything, a future Republican administration will seek to do about pot. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And there’s more. One state, in particular, is pushing the drug envelope. In 2020, by popular referendum, the voters of Oregon enacted <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/oha/hsd/amh/pages/measure110.aspx">Measure 110</a>, which decriminalizes hard drugs, including meth, LSD, and heroin. We should note that decriminalization is not the same thing as legalization, although <a href="https://www.wweek.com/news/2023/08/08/readers-respond-to-portlands-downtown-fentanyl-market/">close-up reporting</a> from the streets of Portland suggests that now, pretty much anything goes. Many observers, of course, will be horrified by what’s happening in Oregon. In response, we can say that maybe we’re horrified, too, and yet Oregon’s right to set its own course is right there in the Tenth Amendment—amendments being, of course, just as much a part of the Constitution as the original document.</p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So what state could be the next Nevada? Or Oregon? That remains to be seen, but a good target for disruption, as I have argued <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2022/02/09/coming-soon-a-red-state-vision-of-healthcare-regulation/">here</a> and <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2022/12/17/opinion-red-state-rising-desantis-takes-on-big-health-james-pinkerton/">here</a>, would be the dead-handed U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The state that disrupts the FDA—at least as the federal agency operates within that state’s own borders—would be doing itself, and the world, a favor. Patients and investors alike would applaud, as healthcare choices and outcomes improved, and vast economic potential was unleashed. That’s the theory, at least. But would it work in practice? There’s only way to know for sure: test it out. That’s what the states-as-laboratories are for. If a state were to legalize medical freedom and it were to somehow boomerang, well, that would be good to know. A failure would’t invalidate the concept of liberty, of course, but it might teach us something about implementation. As they say, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>A Further Illustration</b> </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add that edgy experimentation can even occur on a smaller level than the states. On August 27, netizens were amazed to see <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2023/08/28/native-american-tribal-police-bust-climate-change-activists-blocking-road-burning-man/">video</a> of a police vehicle plowing through a barrier set up by green activists along a highway in Nevada, thereby blocking traffic. The barrier was illegal, of course, and yet by now we’re used to seeing the humans committing such crimes treated with deference, never mind that motorists are inconvenienced, commerce slowed—and perhaps even ambulances stopped. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In general, authorities have learned the hard way that anything other than kid glove-treatment toward such lawbreakers leads to cries of “police brutality” and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/nyregion/nypd-george-floyd-protesters-settlement.html">costly lawsuits</a>. Except in <i>this</i> case, the cops didn’t get that memo; they charged in. A closer look at the cops in question explains why: The police <a href="https://www.kolotv.com/2023/08/28/paiute-tribal-rangers-give-details-incident-with-climate-change-protestors/">that did the barrier-busting</a> were rangers from the <a href="https://plpt.nsn.us/ranger-station/">Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe</a>. Which is to say, as members of an Indian reservation, the law enforcers have at least some autonomy and their own legal system—to which the ACLU might not have much standing. No doubt the Nevada case will be litigated, and yet on such matters, Native Americans have plenty of law and precedent on their side. In the meantime, many of us can admire the Nevada rangers for standing up for the rule of law—and for normalcy on their territory. Indeed, it might make us wonder: What other useful functions can be managed from within a more conducive legal framework? </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The big takeaway is that if we want creativity and exuberance—including, yes, some envelope-pushing—we need a legal and political system that makes room for it. Yes, form allows growth, but form then limits growth. So what we need is a constantly evolving form. And that suggests much greater latitude for the states. Or, to put it more bluntly, <i>more freedom. </i></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variant: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-8504108444318889142022-12-24T16:48:00.072-05:002022-12-26T22:02:52.394-05:00 The Virginia Resolution at 224: Still Very Much With Us, As Red Seeks to Block Blue, and Vice Versa<p><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjc7yvDXvt62t8BqQ7CKMM7K50pj8wHxUutHP0s8TTCq065PHNPHYVD_ieSYTwP4sfR7_CO4RAtAo1SLP5c8MVjWgQhaLI-RTXQPz_CDJ08FjfgIjMOGOYcIeSbOxozWz8xsG74cqLml-KYWqa3NKQaKF3b5jlzPLXU6kfsgwYqHtIABLwfRvY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="782" data-original-width="640" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjc7yvDXvt62t8BqQ7CKMM7K50pj8wHxUutHP0s8TTCq065PHNPHYVD_ieSYTwP4sfR7_CO4RAtAo1SLP5c8MVjWgQhaLI-RTXQPz_CDJ08FjfgIjMOGOYcIeSbOxozWz8xsG74cqLml-KYWqa3NKQaKF3b5jlzPLXU6kfsgwYqHtIABLwfRvY" width="196" /></a></b></div><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;"><br /></b><p></p><p><b style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Madison’s Anniversary</b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Can the states <i>interpose</i> their power in opposition to what they deem to be noxious federal policies? That’s a question that comes up a lot these days, even if the word “interpose” isn’t much used. Yet by whatever name, the idea of using legal and political strategies to block unwanted federal policies is popular, both with the left and the right. These days, as diversity muscles past uniformity, few federal policies are well regarded nationwide. As a result, state leaders--governors and other officials--operating from their respective blue and red bastions, find themselves at odds with various federal policies. It was never the case that one size fits all in this country, and the Founders understood that, which is they wired <i>federalism</i> into the Constitution. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet in our time, it's all the more obvious that one size doesn't fit all 335 million of us, even as, of course, the federal edifice is vastly larger and more encroaching than it was three centuries ago. Therefore, more state-federal feuds are inevitable. And so, in their many legal, political, and ideological tussles with the central government, state leaders today, left as well as right, are recapitulating the periphery vs. core dynamic that preoccupied the Founders, albeit today we see it on a grander scale. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So on this, the 224th anniversary of the use of the “i” word, <i>interpose</i>, by a major figure in American history, <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-17-02-0128">James Madison</a>--the author of the U.S. Constitution and our Fourth President, as well as the author of the <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/primary-sources/virginia-and-kentucky-resolutions">Virginia Resolution</a> that we remember today—let’s consider how interposition <i>has</i> manifested itself, <i>is</i> manifesting itself, and <i>will</i> manifest itself in the future, as red states grow redder, and blue states become bluer. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As we all know, the red-blue split is one of the most important trends of our time. It’s not just the difference between Republicans and Democrats in Congress—who are veering further <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">apart</a> in their partisanship—but the difference between the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/">political cultures</a> of red states and blue states. Indeed, if we consider the red-blue split in cultural, as well as political, terms, we can see its full depth. Think rural vs. urban. NASCAR vs. NPR. Chick-fil-A vs. Patagonia. Diversity, in the fullness of the concept, is real. Fortunately, we have a mechanism for managing--even, if you will, celebrating--that diversity: the U.S. Constitution. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As recently as two years ago, blue states seized every opportunity to block the policies of Donald Trump. For instance, then-California attorney general Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, sued the Trump administration more than <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/california-ag-xavier-becerra-sue-donald-trump/index.html">100 times</a>, on matters ranging from immigration to the census to gun control. In so litigating, Becerra became a hero to the left; in 2021, in recognition of his service to the blue cause, President Joe Biden appointed him secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. </p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet these days, the shoe is on the other foot. Now it’s red states—most notably, Florida—opposing the Biden Administration. Indeed, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis isn’t just opposing federal policies; he is actively seeking to <span style="color: #0000e9; text-decoration: underline;">investigate</span> the federal government for "crimes and wrongdoing committed against Floridians related to the Covid-19 vaccine." The idea that a U.S. state would investigate the feds is extraordinary. But okay, these are extraordinary times, and so we shouldn’t be surprised that the national EQ—Extraordinary Quotient—keeps rising. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To sum up, at different times, and on different issues, both blue and red states have sought to interpose their sovereign power against federal policies. (Some might say that they have sought to <i>nullify</i>.) Once again, this is diversity on display: The Democrats have their vision of the good life, and good politics, and Republicans have theirs—and increasingly, with apologies to <a href="https://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poem/poems_eastwest.htm">Rudyard Kipling</a>, never the twain shall meet. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So if the Democrats hold the White House in 2024, it’s a safe bet that Republican states will continue to oppose the blue administration, and if Republicans win, Democrats will immediately rediscover their Becerrra-esque legal-oppositional moves. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But let’s go back to “interposition.” In 1798, Virginia was reacting, negatively, to the policies of President John Adams, most notably, the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/alien-and-sedition-acts">Alien and Sedition Acts</a>. That legislation, enacted by the Federalists who controlled the Fifth Congress, made it a crime to publish “any false, scandalous and malicious writing” about the U.S. government or its officials. Plainly, the new law was an urgent threat to personal liberty. In response, members of the rival party to the Federalists, the Democratic-Republicans, flexed their muscles of opposition in the legislative bodies they controlled. And so on December 21, 1798, the Virginia House of Delegates passed a resolution, written by Madison—a former Member of Congress from Virginia, now a private citizen living in Montpelier—and then, three days later, the Virginia Senate passed it, too. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The language of the <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/primary-sources/virginia-and-kentucky-resolutions">resolution</a> was fully Madisonian in its measuredness:</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>That this assembly most solemnly declares a warm attachment to the Union of the States, to maintain which it pledges all its powers; and that for this end, </b><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><b>it is their duty to watch over and oppose every infraction of those principles which constitute the only basis of that Union,</b></span><b> because a faithful observance of them, can alone secure its existence and the public happiness.</b> [emphasis added] </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">P</span>recisely because we love the Union, Madison is saying, we must protest any encroachments on its integrity. Madison continues, adding in the “i” word: </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>…</b><span style="background-color: white;"><b>the states who are parties thereto, have the right, and are in duty bound, to </b></span><span style="background-color: white; text-decoration: underline;"><b>interpose</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"><b> for arresting the progress of the evil, and for maintaining within their respective limits, the authorities, rights and liberties appertaining to them. </b>[emphasis added]<b> </b></span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can observe that the word “interpose” is studiedly soft and a bit vague, even if Madison's use of the word “evil” is, well, neither soft nor vague. So the resolution was definitely a throw-down. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Strikingly, a similar resolution had passed earlier that same year, on November 11, in Kentucky, another state controlled by the Democratic-Republicans. Declaring the states’ ability to block federal legislation it deemed odious, the Kentucky Resolution used the word “nullification,” a much stronger word than “interpose”: </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>the several states who formed that instrument [the Constitution], being sovereign and independent, have the unquestionable right to judge of its infraction; and that a nullification, by those [states], of all unauthorized acts . . . is the rightful remedy.</b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Interestingly, the secret author of this resolution was none other than Thomas Jefferson, then the sitting vice president (those were the days, of course, prior to the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/historical-docs/todays-doc/index.html?dod-date=1209">12th Amendment</a>, when presidents and vice presidents were not elected on the same ticket, so Vice President Jefferson never pretended to be an ally of President Adams). </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet because Virginia was by far the largest state in the Union—and the home of George Washington, then still living—the resolution coming out of close-in Richmond resonated much more with the nation than the one from distant Frankfort. Still, it must be noted that the other 14 states were not in accord with either Virginia or Kentucky. Asked to agree with the resolutions, four states had no response, and ten rejected them. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Yet even so, the resolutions were impactful. In the presidential election the following year, 1800, the Sedition Acts were a major issue. And the Democratic-Republicans, the party of Madison and Jefferson, swept out the authors of the Sedition Acts, Adams and the Federalists. In fact, the popular vote was a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1800_United_States_presidential_election">landslide</a>, even if the electoral-vote counting was iffier. </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Having been elected to the presidency, Jefferson would serve two terms in the White House. In his first year, 1801, the Sedition Acts expired; moreover, the Third President pardoned all those previously convicted under their provisions. Then Madison followed Jefferson in the White House in 1809, serving two terms of his own. (As a relevant aside, the electoral geography of the 1800 election foreshadows the red-blue landscape of today: The Democratic-Republicans carried the South and West, such as it was, while the Federalists carried New England.) </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The Resolutions Today</b></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Political events thus mooted the immediate legal and constitutional questions about the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions. However, the underlying issues they raised are unresolved to this day. Taken together, the resolutions made two arguments that continue to echo:</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i>First</i>, the Union is a <i>compact</i> among individual states; as Madison <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-17-02-0128">wrote</a>, the Union was “resulting from the compact to which the states are parties.” The idea that the Union is a compact among the states suggests, of course, that if the terms of the compact are broken, the compact itself—that is to say, the Union—can be broken. We can realize immediately that this sort of thinking helped inspire the South to secede in 1861. In other words, the idea of the United States as a compact is a deeply loaded proposition. And while Madison and Jefferson were long dead by the time of the Civil War, their words in the resolutions were cited frequently by Southern champion John C. Calhoun, as well as by the fire-eating secessionists who followed him after his death in 1850. </span></p>
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<i>Second</i>, the resolutions argued that states had delegated certain specific powers to the federal government, while reserving the remaining powers for themselves. And among those powers was the right to <i>interpose</i> state sovereignty to protect citizens from the depredations of the federal government. That is, it’s not so much that the states are rejecting the idea of the Union; they are just declaring that egregious (in their view) federal rules should not apply. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">It’s this second argument of course, that echoes into our time, epitomized by figures such as Becerra for the blue Democrats, and DeSantis for the red Republicans. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Some will say, of course, that the Constitution’s <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/supremacy_clause#:~:text=Article%20VI,%20Paragraph%202%20of,laws,%20and%20even%20state%20constitutions.">Supremacy Clause</a> settles this issue—that the states can’t interpose against the federal government. Of course, the Supremacy Clause was written by the same Madison, who then argued, a decade later, that the states could, in fact, interpose. Later in his long life, Madison had much more to say on the topic of interposition. For instance, during the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/nullification-crisis">Nullification Crisis</a> of the early 1830s, the then-80-something Madison asserted that the threat from the Sedition Acts was so serious that it justified interposition, whereas the imposing of a mere tariff did not. Of course, the definition of a justifiable “trigger” for interposition will vary in the eye of the beholder.</span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Others will say that the Civil War, or the New Deal, or the Supreme Court, has settled the question about the supremacy of the federal government over the states. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet even today, the mostly liberal legal establishment is torn on the issues raised by the resolutions. On the one hand, the legal establishment mostly applauds the assertion of federal power over the states, that being a legacy of Abraham Lincoln’s victory in the Civil War, including his “new birth of freedom” at Gettysburg. Yet on the other hand, the resolutions’ vigorous defense of free speech and civil liberties is deeply appealing to the left. </p>
<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;">This tension is illustrated in a 2009 essay by <a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/877/virginia-and-kentucky-resolutions-of-1798">Douglas C. Dow</a>, a professor of political theory, published by the Free Speech Center at Middle Tennessee State University: </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>The complex legacy of the resolutions stems from lingering questions as to whether they are best understood as a defense of civil liberties or of states’ rights. Rather than asserting the principles of free speech and civil protections for aliens not charged with crimes, Jefferson and Madison argued that the power to pass such acts was not properly delegated to the national government by the states. The tone and language of the resolutions are not that of a newspaper editorial meant to shape public opinion, but rather are constitutional treatises designed to elaborate on essential structures of government. </b></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So that’s clear enough statement of opinion: If the resolutions defend free speech and civil liberties, they’re good. But if they defend states’ rights, they’re not so good—and quite possibly bad. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Yet 13 years after Dow’s essay, in the wake of wokeness, it can’t be said that the contemporary left completely champions free speech. Why is this? Because today’s left, including the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html">American Civil Liberties Union</a>, is often preoccupied with opposing what it deems to be <i>hate speech</i>. </span></p>
<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;">Yet still, most liberals will be stalwart in vindicating free speech. And at the same time, the experience of the Trump presidency has convened many, if not most, on the left that diversity among the states is a good thing. After all, it was Supreme Court Justice <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/285/262/">Louis Brandeis</a>, a lion of liberalism, who back in 1932 championed the states as "laboratories of democracy." By now, nine decades later, just about everyone has come to see that Alabama and California can't and won't be governed the same way, for the simple reason that Alabamans and Californians are so different. And they aren't about to converge. </p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;">So much of the left has<span style="font-size: 16px;"> now joined the right, albeit without quite admitting it, in wishing to use the power of the states to oppose—dare we say </span><i style="font-size: 16px;">interpos</i><span style="font-size: 16px;">e?—unwanted federal policies. Of course, left-leaning states oppose </span><i style="font-size: 16px;">different</i><span style="font-size: 16px;"> federal policies than do right-leaning states, and yet as they say, sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. So if the left says it’s fine for a blue state to interpose against the federal government on behalf of, say, sanctuary cities, it’s hard to come up with anything more than a situationalist argument for saying that a red state can’t interpose on behalf of abortion restrictions. </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Thus we come to see why <i>both</i> blue and red are at peace with at least some of the ethos of the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions. At one time or another, folks everywhere in America have felt threatened by federal restrictions on speech or expression. This goes for today’s red (Kentucky), today’s purple (Virginia), and today’s blue (John Adams’ home state of Massachusetts). Indeed, the commonality of the feeling of dissonance goes beyond speech and expression. Be they fans of Becerra or of DeSantis, they both accept that the states are so divergent that they have a right to affirmatively defend state policies that express those divergences. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>A Case in Point: One Size for Health Does Not Fit All</b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">We might close on a particular issue that connects, in a sort of matter/anti-matter sense, Becerra and DeSantis. As the federal secretary of health and human services, Becerra oversees the Food and Drug Administration. During the Covid crisis, the FDA joined with an independent agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to enforce the various rules concerning masks and vaccines. As we have seen, it’s this cluster of rules that is the object of DeSantis’ new legal assault. And while we can’t yet know the legal outcome of DeSantis’ actions, we can already see the <i>political</i> impact: the Florida governor has <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/07/trump-desantis-fauci-coronavirus-pandemic-2024">rallied the red-state right</a>. </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">That is, just as Madison and Jefferson rallied the Democratic- Republicans in 1798 with an eye to victory in 1800, so DeSantis is rallying the Republicans (in geographical terms, the obvious descendants of the Democratic-Republicans of yore) in 2022 hoping for a victory in 2024. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Back in February, this author <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2022/02/09/coming-soon-a-red-state-vision-of-healthcare-regulation/">argued</a> that healthcare was a natural issue in which the states could and should assert their sovereign rights. Just this month, in the wake of DeSantis’ attacks on the federal health edifice, I <a href="https://dailycaller.com/2022/12/17/opinion-red-state-rising-desantis-takes-on-big-health-james-pinkerton/">re-upped the argument</a>. </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">It is, I believe, counterproductive for the FDA, joined by the CDC, to have a vise-grip on American healthcare. That is, we shouldn’t allow these old-paradigm bureaucracies to oversee the $5 trillion national health expenditure, to say nothing of the health of all Americans. Are we really to believe that the FDA/CDC know what’s best for us as individuals? No doubt some Americans have that faith, but many of us do not. And happily, this diversity of opinion can be expressed in the diversity inherent in federalism. </p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In that spirit, many of us would love to see a state such as Florida interpose against the federal healthcrats. At the moment, that might seem to be a right-wing position, but if Republicans win the White House in 2024 and start applying their views to, say, reproductive matters, the Democrats will quickly rediscover their own progressive enthusiasm for interposition. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">I am confident that I speak for many creative forward-lookers on the libertarian left when I say that the FDA/CDC being in charge of health is as if the Postal Service were in charge of all shipping and communication. So sure, we want to liberate healthcare from this droopy duopoly of power, the FDA and CDC. And if that's a legal and constitutional issue in 2022, it ought to be a political issue, a <i>voting</i> issue, in 2024. As in, sweeping out of power the stubborn of overweening federal power, just as Jefferson swept out Adams. The states can't fulfill their optimum destiny--as the laboratories of democracy, prosperity, and technology--if the feds have put on top of them a wet, woke, blanket. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Even in the 21st century, a wide spectrum of Americans draw no small degree of inspiration from arguments made in the 18th century. Thanks again, James Madison.</p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-34903517606034419072022-11-03T07:58:00.002-04:002022-11-03T08:15:26.718-04:00Lucianne Goldberg’s Place in Internet History: Six Lessons for Today<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Lucianne Goldberg, who died on October 27 at age 87, lived a great life. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">Although she had a long career as a writer, ghostwriter, and literary agent, she will be best remembered for her advisory role in the Monica Lewinsky saga. Here’s one </span><a href="https://www.commentary.org/john-podhoretz/lucianne-goldberg-1935-2022/" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">admiring obituary</a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px;">.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet there’s still another aspect of her life that’s worth recalling, because it echoes to this day: Her role as a digital activist, followed by her time as a startup entrepreneur. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">For Goldberg as a digital figure, the hinge period was the year 2000, when the internet was still young. Indeed, if we look back to that formative period, we can see that many of the issues that she, and we, confronted then—toxicity, censorship, cancelling, scaling up, political activism—are still issues now. As they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So at a time when the internet is changing yet again—as <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/news/elon-musk-takes-control-of-twitter-fires-executives-us-media/">Elon Musk</a> has taken over Twitter while <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2022/10/27/get-zucked-facebook-stock-down-22-based-on-disappointing-earnings/">Mark Zuckerberg’s</a> Facebook, now Meta, has fallen on its face—it’s worth both recalling this moment in Goldberg’s life and pondering the parallels, then and now. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In the beginning of the widespread internet, three decades ago, nobody knew what this new thing would be. In 1993, <a href="http://The_Virtual_Community">Howard Rheingold</a> published <i>The Virtual Community</i>, which put forth a sort of liberal Whole Foods-y utopian vision. In the meantime, others thought that the net would be a series of “walled gardens,” proprietarily managed by corporations such as America Online and Compuserve. Or perhaps it would be controlled by even larger corporations, such as AT&T and Time-Warner. And of course, everyone wondered what the dreaded Microsoft would do. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In 1996, the poet and rancher John Perry Barlow made an early stab at a libertarian vision for the net. His “Declaration of Independence of Independence of Cyberspace,” includes this ringing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Declaration_of_the_Independence_of_Cyberspace">preamble</a>: </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You are not welcome among us. You have no sovereignty where we gather.</b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">That don’t-tread-on-me spirit seemed especially fitting for one early site, Free Republic. Launched in 1996 by Jim Robinson in Fresno, CA, it was an unmoderated bulletin board for conservatives—free speech, away from liberal bias, was the goal. For a while, Free Republic flourished; it had the eager participation of its users, known as Freepers, who felt unconstrained by the rules, taboos, and technological limitations of older media. Freepers could post articles they had culled from other news sources and then comment on them endlessly, in a new phenomenon called “threads.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Then in 1998, the Monica Lewinsky story broke, and Free Republic, feasting on this and other Clinton scandals, took off. It attracted an avid poster in “Trixie,” the user name of Lucianne Goldberg. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet Free Republic had problems. It was heavy on “flames,” another new phenomenon, and had some outright hate speech and invitations to violence. Much of this was curated by an opponent, who published it in <a href="https://www.salon.com/1999/07/13/free/">Salon.com</a> in 1999. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To be sure, flaming, hating, and threatening were hardly unique to Free Republic’s corner of the internet. As far back as 1990, the American attorney and author Mike Godwin outlined what came to be known as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law">Godwin’s Law</a>, which holds, somewhat jokily, that online chats eventually degenerate into accusations about Hitler and Nazis. Strictly speaking, that’s not fair or true. And yet it does seem that online discussions, especially when cloaked in anonymity, have a way of ending up in hostility, nastiness, and yes, what’s been called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_Hitlerum">Reductio ad Hitlerum</a>. Like it or not, noxious speech is still—at least most of it—protected free speech. And yet too much venom makes for an unattractive brew. It’s especially repellent to advertisers, who are the mother’s milk of non-paywalled websites. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Moreover, in 1998, The Los Angeles Times and The Washington Post <a href="https://www.law.uh.edu/faculty/cjoyce/copyright/release10/losangt.html">sued</a> Free Republic for copyright infringement—all those articles being lifted and posted. The newspapers won. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Sill, Free Republic had energy. Indeed, founder Jim Robinson saw the site as a platform for more than just online gathering. As that same Salon article noted, Robinson and his colleagues had a “desire to turn Free Republic from a mere Web site into a political organization.” </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">That idea certainly made sense—if people could gather online, they could gather in person—and yet for Free Republic, the execution proved problematic. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">For instance, in December 2000, during the extended <a href="https://millercenter.org/contested-presidential-elections/bush-v-gore">Bush-vs.-Gore recount drama</a>, Freepers staged a protest in front of the New Haven, CT home of Gore’s vice presidential running mate, Sen. Joe Lieberman. And that turned nasty. The <a href="https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-xpm-2000-12-13-0012130943-story.html">headline</a> in The Hartford Courant on December, 13, 2000 read, “Anti-Semitism Reeks Outside Lieberman Home.” The article noted the presence of Nazi and Confederate flags and a sign that read “Judas Joe.” The participants denied that they were anti-Semitic, saying that the most offensive material was placed by provocateurs. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">There’s no point, 22 years later, in trying to hash through these claims and counter-claims. But we can say that the public face of Free Republic now appeared toxic, at least to many. In fact, the Courant quoted Goldberg as saying that Free Republic had “let all the Y2K, gun-nut, Jew-baiting crazies take over and flame the plain old conservatives.” The word wasn’t used then, but one might say that Free Republic was <i>cancelled, </i>at least in the minds of many. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Whereupon Goldberg started her own site, <a href="https://www.lucianne.com/"><span style="color: #094fd1;">Lucianne.com</span></a>, with many of the same features as her old haunt, including posts, threads, and flames. For awhile, Goldberg’s site was happening. But then others began to see that this new thing could be the Next Big Thing. And so came a rush of new sites, including Silicon Valley-backed newbies such as Friendster and MySpace. These sites could see that <i>attention</i> was something that could be monetized—and they were infinitely more effective at doing it. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So “social media” was born, and it was big. Hardcore techies—-which Robinson and Goldberg were not—realized that the future of the medium would belong more sophisticated sites that allowed for posting pictures and video, as well as peer-to-peer messaging and e-commerce, all arranged by algorithms, supported by advertising, and frictionlessly transferred, as the tech became available to mobile. So while both Free Republic and Lucianne still exist today, they are just small niche players. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Needless to say, this sophistication of the new giants—now known as platforms—brought problems, most notably, the loss of privacy, and then, of course, the issue of censorship, or “de-platforming.” But in their knowingness, even intrusiveness, the new sites—soon to be dominated by Facebook, followed by the smaller Twitter—offered a new kind of political tool, thus realizing at least part of Robinson’s activist vision. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To a large extent, both Barack Obama and Donald Trump based their presidential campaigns on Facebook. Why? Because Facebook knew so much about its users, it could offer the most “granular” of targeted advertising; it was vastly “smarter” than cable TV or dead-tree paper. To candidates, Facebook offers the features of an old-style political machine in new digital garb: <i>Like the ward-heeler of yore, it knows all about you. And so, like the machine of old, it could monitor your progress to ballot-casting. </i></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So what lessons can we draw as we compare the tech transitions of 2000 to the tech transitions of 2022? Here are six: </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>First</i>, if content is king, content-moderation is queen. How to allow free speech on a site without it becoming a sewer? First Amendment absolutism doesn’t last long in the face of online cruelty, even depravity and criminality. This is a problem that bedevils all sites today, from Facebook and Twitter to the newer social sites of the right, such as Caucus Room, Gab, Gettr, Parler, and Truth Social. For sure, Elon Musk struck a blow for free speech when he <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/26/twitters-top-lawyer-reassures-staff-cries-during-meeting-about-musk-takeover-00027931">fired</a> the wokesters who had de-platformed, say, The Babylon Bee, but on that same day, October 27, he <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585619322239561728">tweeted</a> a statement entitled “Dear Twitter Advertisers,” in which he wrote, </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Twitter obviously cannot become a free-for-all hellscape, where anything can be said with no consequences! In addition to adhering to our laws of the land, our platform must be warm and welcoming to all, where you can choose your desired experience according to your preferences.</b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Translation: Musk Twitter will be less censorious than Woke Twitter, but it will have plenty of rules. Indeed, Musk is notably going slowly, <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587668703834955778">consulting widely</a>, as he ponders what changes he might—or might not—be making in Twitter’s content-moderation policies. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Second</i>, the stubborn vision of the founder can make an organization great, but the same stubbornness can later bring it down. That was the story of Free Republic’s ill-starred foray into political activism two decades ago in Connecticut, and it’s the story of Mark Zuckerberg’s foray into the metaverse today. Earth to Mark: Nobody wants to wear virtual reality goggles all the time. Today, Facebook’s—now Meta’s—stock is down by more than 70 percent since the beginning of 2022.</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Third</i>, users will always crave interactivity. And that interactivity can be defined as everything from community to combat. Does that seem complicated? Even contradictory? Welcome to human nature. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Fourth</i>, the world is still looking for a media that is both participatory and online. The old model of simply grabbing content online has been suppressed by lawsuits, and yet people, working within the guidelines of “fair use,” will always want to work over the news: upvoting it, forwarding it, commenting on it, and mashing it up with music or special effects. So any site benefits from what might be called “dimensionality”—that is, it’s not just flat on the screen, but instead reaches out to the viewer, who can then take action, or be called to action. That’s the problem, for example, with cable news, relying as it does, on pre-internet technology: You can watch cable TV, but you can’t do anything with it. To do something, you have to go to a different, interactive, screen. It’s the inertness of cable that will doom it, thus bringing more hope to online news. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Fifth</i>, the dream of a hybrid political organization, both online and real-world, is still to be realized. Free Republic and Lucianne never scaled, and Zuckerberg’s Facebook, which more than scaled, is no longer trusted. For his part, Musk has said that he wants Twitter to be an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/what-is-an-everything-app-why-does-elon-musk-want-make-one-2022-10-05/">“everything app,”</a> that will let you do everything, including, one might presume, political things. We’ll see. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Sixth</i>, it’s possible that the big sites are, well, too big. This is a diverse country, and an even more diverse world, and it might just be the case that a single site can’t encompass all the different points of view in a harmonious whole. Just as everything-for-everybody department stores have faded, we might see that the big socials find themselves nibbled away by nimble sites that can better reflect the values and interests of their chunk of users. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So could that spell a revival for niche legacies such as Free Republic or Lucianne? Perhaps, but more likely, at least in the U.S, the division will be a <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-peril-and-promise-of-austro-america/">duality</a>, red vs. blue. As we know, red vs. blue isn’t just about politics, it’s also about life and lifestyle. There’s a Red America now, and a Blue America. And so the internet successes of today and tomorrow will scaled to one or another half—and that’s hundreds of millions of people. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Still, the smart players will know their history. And Lucianne Goldberg provides an instructive case study. Entertaining, too. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-31656903246393231442022-08-19T15:46:00.003-04:002022-08-20T21:56:16.229-04:00A Grand Bargain For Taiwan: Literally<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfxIXTUJQJWVjYWckPZHkrGMGBAOQQcaQnqUVnC7B-VM1rEBmpTcuwwSVk_egjFBXI89NdyMv5Ovo3Taq99qAYjsOd1p9PXNEY4jjqOwFq4PwDBPwGbbbvQFpuc8IAi1LYKP44_8Z6i-t56a43Ykc0Dcpibh1zs8aoUaTw5-oNQhlWsIIZeMI/s200/Flag_of_the_Republic_of_China.svg.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="133" data-original-width="200" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfxIXTUJQJWVjYWckPZHkrGMGBAOQQcaQnqUVnC7B-VM1rEBmpTcuwwSVk_egjFBXI89NdyMv5Ovo3Taq99qAYjsOd1p9PXNEY4jjqOwFq4PwDBPwGbbbvQFpuc8IAi1LYKP44_8Z6i-t56a43Ykc0Dcpibh1zs8aoUaTw5-oNQhlWsIIZeMI/s1600/Flag_of_the_Republic_of_China.svg.png" width="200" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We all know that the stakes are high—maybe mushroom-cloudily high—in regard to Taiwan. “A Fight Over Taiwan Could Go Nuclear,” <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-05-20/fight-over-taiwan-could-go-nuclear"><span style="color: #45749a;">headlines</span></a> <i>Foreign Affairs</i>, not a publication known for sensationalism. And that header ran on May 22, weeks <i>before</i> House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s August 2 trip to Taiwan. Since Pelosi’s visit, concern about a possible Sino-U.S. conflict over the island has ratcheted even higher. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Hence an ominous second <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-must-prepare-war-over-taiwan"><span style="color: #45749a;">headline</span></a> from <i>Foreign Affairs, </i>post-Pelosi trip: “America Must Prepare for a War Over Taiwan.” Meanwhile, headlines from around the world veer from pensive to panicky. From <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-pelosi-in-taiwan-important-signal-or-historic-mistake/a-62711722"><span style="color: #45749a;">Germany</span></a>: “Pelosi in Taiwan—important signal or historic mistake?”; from the <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1650327/china-taiwan-xi-jinping-us-joe-biden-military-drill-nuclear-war-ww3-latest"><span style="color: #45749a;">United Kingdom</span></a>: “Horrifying escalation of tensions.” And the fear is that the war may spread to neighbors in Asia. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/08/03/national/china-target-taiwan-drills-japan/"><span style="color: #45749a;">Japan</span></a>: “China’s planned military exercises near Taiwan may have another target: Japan.” Smaller countries, too, are worried; <a href="https://jamesppinkerton.blogspot.com/Crossing%20Red%20Lines%20to%20Nuclear%20War"><span style="color: #45749a;">Malaysia</span></a>: “Crossing Red Lines to Nuclear War.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Just on August 15, a <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/14/politics/congressional-delegation-taiwan/index.html">second</a> U.S. Congressional delegation visited Taiwan. To which the People’s Liberation Army <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/15/asia/china-military-drills-congressional-delegation-taiwan-visit-intl-hnk/index.html">responded</a> by staging more menacing “drills.” Meanwhile, back in Washington, D.C., on August 16, the Chinese ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang, delivered a 90-minute <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/16/chinese-u-s-ambassador-doubles-down-on-beijings-tough-rhetoric-00052269"><span style="color: #0000e9;">tirade</span></a>, which <i>Politico</i> characterized as “doubling down.” Qin accused Pelosi of “political provocation” and of “changing the status quo”—and implying that China would be within its rights to change it some more. To which U.S. Air Force secretary <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-air-force-secretary-chinas-actions-around-taiwan-increase-risk-2022-08-19/">Frank Kendall</a> responded, in effect, on August 19: “The military activities that China engaged in during the time of the speaker's visit increased the level of risk and they violated a number of norms, crossing the line was one, firing into the exclusive economic zone of Japan was another, and firing over Taiwan itself was another.” Kendall added, “These are not actions that are designed to promote peace and stability in the region, they are very provocative and they increase the level of risk.”</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Stepping back and adding perspective on this ominous tit-for-tat, fo<span style="background-color: white;">rmer secretary of state <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/henry-kissinger-is-worried-about-disequilibrium-11660325251"><span style="color: #45749a;">Henry Kissinger</span></a> told <i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to.” </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So maybe, as we seek to sort things out, we should pause to remember wisdom from <a href="https://www.bartleby.com/73/1914.html"><span style="color: #45749a;">Winston Churchill</span></a>: “To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.” As we know, Churchill never shrank from an unavoidable fight, and yet at the same time, he believed that war should always be the last resort. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">With such prudence in mind, we should consider all possible ideas for staving off a conflict, including those from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking_outside_the_box"><span style="color: #45749a;">outside the box</span></a>. One such outside-the-nine-dots thinker is Greg Piccionelli, a Los Angeles-based polymath who has combined law, biology, physics, inventing, music, and bird-care. He has an interesting suggestion: <i>The People’s Republic of China should buy Taiwan. </i>Not conquer it. Not nuke it. Not blockade it. Buy it. That’s truly a Grand <i>Bargain</i>. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">“The U.S. bought Louisiana in 1803,” Piccionelli says. “Perhaps we could have taken it by force from the French, but we’ll never know, because we bought it. Same with Alaska in 1867. The Russians were a strategic threat to us, and we were a strategic threat to them. So instead of risking a conflict in the Pacific Northwest, we just bought the territory. A win-win.” So yes, with apologies to Churchill, at least in some cases, buy-buy is better than war-war. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add that in 1821, the U.S. <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1801-1829/florida"><span style="color: #45749a;">acquired Florida</span></a> from Spain. As part of the deal, the U.S. assumed some $5 million in liabilities, and yet the cession was a bit more complicated than just a purchase, in part because Florida was filling up with American settlers and also because Spain was at the time fighting revolutions all across South America. Still, it was a peaceful addition to the U.S. Interestingly, the Florida deal was negotiated by Secretary of State John Quincy Adams. Today, he is remembered as an apostle of foreign-policy restraint; as he said of America in his famous <a href="https://loveman.sdsu.edu/docs/1821secofstateJQAdmas.pdf"><span style="color: #45749a;">oration</span></a> of July 4, 1821, “She goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.” All true, and yet at the same time, Adams was a realist champion of American interests. He knew that it was better for the U.S. to have Florida than for Spain to have it—and if he could get it for a mere payment, all the better. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In addition, in 1854, the U.S. made the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1830-1860/gadsden-purchase"><span style="color: #878787;">Gadsden Purchase</span></a> from Mexico, gaining parts of today’s states of Arizona and New Mexico. Just in the previous decade, the U.S. had fought a war with Mexico, seizing substantial amounts of territory, and yet this time, the U.S. chose a peaceful approach. <span style="font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>In fact, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_territory_purchased_by_a_sovereign_nation_from_another_sovereign_nation"><span style="color: #45749a;">Wikipedia</span></a> lists some two dozens instances in history in which territory traded hands via purchase, not conquest. In other words, there’s ample precedent for buy-buy as a way to gain land-land. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So now to Taiwan. “If China offered $1 million to every man, woman, and child in Taiwan if they agree to vote to voluntary reunify with the mainland, the cost would be $24 trillion—24 million people times one million dollars,” Piccionelli suggests. “That $24 trillion price tag would accomplish peaceful reunification without an incredibly more costly cold war with the U.S. or an even more costly and catastrophic hot war with the U.S. and its allies.” So there’s the deal. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">To be sure, $24 trillion is a lot of money. And perhaps the price of $1 million per Taiwanese is too high—or maybe it’s too low. That’s what would need to be negotiated between the parties. However, as Piccionelli says, almost whatever the per capita valuation, war is more costly. On August 8, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-what-would-happen-if-china-attacked-taiwan-214917571.html"><span style="color: #45749a;">Yahoo News</span></a> cited a RAND Corporation study suggesting that a war with Taiwan would cut China’s $17 trillion GDP by as much 25 percent. That’s more than $4 trillion, just in a single year. Which is to say, stretched out over many years, the cost of a war with Taiwan would vastly exceed the possible purchase price of Taiwan. And in the meantime, a Taiwan war would clip off about five percent of U.S. GDP, which is currently $23 trillion. So that would be another trillion or so lost. And there’d be sizable impact on the rest of the world, too.</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Of course, we haven’t mentioned yet the price in lives, buildings, cultural artifacts, and so on—all the treasures that are being destroyed tragically, on a daily basis, in Ukraine.</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We can add that the RAND numbers assume that the war would be contained—and who can make any such assumption? Perhaps it’s fitting that I am writing this in the month of August. It was in another August, 108 years ago, that <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Guns-August-Pulitzer-Prize-Winning-Outbreak/dp/0345476093"><span style="color: #45749a;">The Guns of August</span></a> roared, and World War One commenced. Few of the war’s protagonists had any idea how destructive it would be: in lives, in money, in cultural and political capital. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">One who did foresee the true cost of a great war was Norman Angell, the British journalist and essayist. His 1910 <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/38535/38535-h/38535-h.htm"><span style="color: #45749a;">book</span></a>, <i>The Great Illusion</i>, argued that war had become so destructive that it was no longer “profitable” to think of conquest. In particular, Angell cited the importance of intangibles, such as credit—which would evaporate in a conflict. As he wrote, these intangibles would evaporate in the event of a war: “Because of this delicate interdependence of our credit-built finance, the confiscation by an invader of private property, whether stocks, shares, ships, mines, or anything more valuable than jewellery or furniture—anything, in short, which is bound up with the economic life of the people—would so react upon the finance of the invader's country as to make the damage to the invader resulting from the confiscation exceed in value the property confiscated.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Angell was pro-peace, but he was tough-minded. He conceded that in countries without industry, there was gain to be found in pillage. As he wrote, “Where Nature does not respond readily to industrial effort, where it is, at least apparently, more profitable to plunder than to work, the military tradition survives. The Beduin has been a bandit since the time of Abraham, for the simple reason that the desert does not support industrial life nor respond to industrial effort. The only career offering a fair apparent return for effort is plunder.” But for countries and civilizations that had evolved beyond smash-and-grab, Angell insisted, war was a costly mistake. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Angell is often mocked, because just four years after the publication of his book, World War One erupted. But in fact, what was then known as the Great War proved his point: All the countries of Europe, even the “victors,” were, in fact, losers. The Europeans recognized Angell’s enduring wisdom, and so in 1933, he was awarded the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1933/angell/facts/"><span style="color: #45749a;">Nobel Peace Prize</span></a>. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">If Angell was correct a century ago, he’s even more correct today. To be sure, plenty of advanced countries go to war—and yet when they do, they are economic losers, not winners. The recent military misadventures of the U.S. in the Middle East are a case in point. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Updating Angell, we can observe: In the past, if a country conquered a territory, it would get the land, and maybe, too, future subjects or slaves. But these days, when a territory is conquered, the conqueror gets craters and ruins. (Yes, theoretically a lightning strike could decapitate the regime and leave the nation intact—that’s what Putin was aiming for in Ukraine, and it didn’t happen.)</p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet even if the kinetic damage is somehow held to a minimum, the damage is still severe. Not only does the credit evaporate, but so does the human capital and the intellectual property. And if economic sanctions and capital flight are piled on to those costs, then all the more, even the winners become losers. So the Russians will not wring profit from the parts of Ukraine that they have conquered and devastated. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Admittedly, a few countries and regions might be so abundant with natural wealth—gold, oil, perhaps rare earth elements—that they might, in some cruel calculus, be deemed “worth” conquering. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 13px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">Yet Taiwan is not one of those countries. It’s prosperous, for sure, boasting a per capita GDP of more than <a href="https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/taiwan"><span style="color: #45749a;">$33,000</span></a>, and yet that wealth is found in the brains of its people, not underground. Moreover, Taiwan’s prosperity is built on gossamer webs of globalism, linking its crucial exports to the rest of the world. For instance, China is Taiwan’s <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/taiwans-top-import-partners/">largest trading partner</a>, and Taiwan is China’s <a href="https://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/">tenth-largest trading partner</a>. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Specifically, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which Pelosi visited, makes <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-s-share-of-contract-chipmaking-to-hit-66-this-year-report"><span style="color: #45749a;">56 percent</span></a> of all the computer chips in the world, (other Taiwanese companies make another 10 percent), and accounts for <a href="https://www.bcg.com/publications/2021/strengthening-the-global-semiconductor-supply-chain">92 percent</a> of the most advanced chip-manufacturing capacity. So yes, these trade links are quite real, in the sense that the world economy relies on Taiwanese chips, and yet at the same time, the links are fragile. On August 1, the president of TSMC, <a href="https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202208010020"><span style="color: #45749a;">Mark Liu</span></a>, spoke out about the perilous situation, as it might affect his company—and the world. He said that a military attack from the PRC would render TSMC factories “non-operable,” because “suddenly their most advanced components” would disappear. Liu explained that TSMC depends on real-time exchange with partners and suppliers around the world, for everything from “raw materials and chemicals to spare parts and software.” And so, Liu continued, “nobody can control TSMC by force.” The result of a war, he concluded, would be “great economic turmoil on [both] sides.” </span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">So even if the PRC were to subdue Taiwan by non-lethal means—say, an economic blockade, or turning the electricity off—plants such as TSMC, having lost their supply chains, and also many of their tech workers, would soon be reduced to worthless hulks. </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Okay, so now to possible objections to the Grand Bargain. Here are five: </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>First</i>, would either the Taiwanese government, or the Taiwanese people, be at all interested in this proposal? The immediate answer is that this sovereign power should be up to the Taiwanese and their democracy. Unlike the PRC, Taiwan <i>is</i> a democracy, where human rights are respected—and so the nation can have a full and free debate on its destiny. Without a doubt, it’s nice to be an independent country. (Officially, Taiwan is the Republic of China, ROC, so it’s legally arguable that it’s just a different government for China, even if, course, in reality, it’s its own nation.) Yet at the same time, it's also nice not to have to worry about being invaded, bombed, or maybe even nuked. So perhaps the Taiwanese will deliberate on this matter, decide to take the deal—and then take the money and run. That is, skedaddle to California or Canada with the million bucks in hand. (This assumes, of course, that those countries would take these economic migrants in such huge quantity; in fact, given their wealth, as well as their presumed skills, it's quite possible that a new kind of international competition for Taiwanese human capital would emerge, with shrewd host countries gaining much.) </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">This author will volunteer that there’s no reason to think that the PRC would treat an owned Taiwan, and its population, any better than it has treated an owned Hong Kong. Yet still, more than <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/12/asia/hong-kong-population-record-fall-covid-intl-hnk/index.html?dicbo=v2-b6fb85f67f72241ed0a73505112e64ba&iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial">98 percent</a> of Hong Kongers </span>have remained<span style="background-color: white;">. Evidently, in the minds of most residents of that former British colony, rule by the PRC isn’t so bad. But once again, the choice should be made by the Taiwanese, whether to take the deal, or not—and whether to stay in Taiwan, or not. </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Second</i>, would the Beijing government have any interest in this idea? After all, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping might think to himself, <i>Taiwan is already ours, so why should we pay for it?</i> To which we can point out: Possession is nine-tenths of the law, and the PRC does not actually possess Taiwan. So maybe Xi will see the value in a war-free, blood-free way to tidy up that geopolitical discrepancy. Indeed, a purchase might be a face-saving way for the PRC to gain sovereignty over Taiwan, without the risk of Putin-Russian type Ukraine debacle. Better to gain Taiwan by moving in on little <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_(game)"><span style="color: #45749a;">weiqi</span></a> cat feet. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i>Third</i>, there’s that $24 trillion price tag. Rich as China might be, that’s a lot of money. So here’s perhaps where international finance could help. And why might the Rest of the World (ROW) be helpful? Because the ROW realizes that a war over Taiwan would be an economy-tanker across the planet, and that would be bad for ROW asset values. And if the war went worldwide, well, that would be even worse—much worse. To stave off potential planetary peril, the ROW might see the value in creating some sort of financial instrument to help the purchase along, perhaps by providing the money upfront to the Taiwanese, with Beijing operating on a longer-term installment plan. Indeed, it’s quite possible that fear of a war over Taiwan is already “priced in” to the value of stocks and currencies—that is, depressing their value—around the world. So if the threat of war were to go away, those valuations would rise, worldwide. And there’re quants on Wall Street—and in London, Tokyo, and Shanghai—who can figure out how to securitize, and monetize, that potential good news. In other words, properly thought through, a permanent peace between China and Taiwan would be remunerative good news. Plotting peace and getting richer as a result surely counts as a virtuous kind of market manipulation. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i>Fourth</i>, some will say that any suggestion that there’s an impermanence to Taiwan as an independent state undermines the freedom and autonomy of the Taiwanese people. That is, the mere thought that Taiwan might be “for sale” could undercut its sovereignty and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a valid concern. However, the idea that world could go to war over Taiwan—and maybe it would even be a nuclear war—is also a valid concern. And the idea that the world, including the United States, might, in fact, “blink” on the defense of Taiwan is yet another valid concern. For half a century, the U.S. has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan; that is, we won’t say what we will or won’t do, militarily. President Joe Biden has said three times that the U.S. would, in fact, defend Taiwan, the administration has <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-walks-back-taiwan-comments-china-military-three-times">unsaid it three times</a>. So there are <i>many</i> valid concerns, there is <i>much</i> ambiguity—and <i>very</i> high stakes. So maybe it’s not so bad to consider different solutions—even outside-the-box bargains. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><i>Fifth</i>, many on the right, as well as the left, will be concerned that paying money for territory and nationality would represent a further commodification of mankind. Perhaps the most revered of all conservatives, <a href="https://socialsciences.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/burke/revfrance.pdf"><span style="color: #45749a;">Edmund Burke</span></a>, sighed that the age of noble chivalry was being yielded up to “sophisters, oeconomists, and calculators.” And <a href="https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/download/pdf/Manifesto.pdf"><span style="color: #45749a;">Karl Marx’s</span></a> declared that the bourgeoisie was reducing all human interactions to the “egotistical calculation” of the cold cash nexus. Myriad thinkers and philosophers, before and since, on the left and the right, have further scorned the idea that human affairs can be reduced to a price point. So how would Taiwan Grand Bargainers plead to these charges? That they are crassly auctioning the organic, the intrinsic, the historic, and the heroic? In their defense, the financializers might argue that over the last two or three centuries, innovation, including financial innovation, has increased the standard of living some <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts">20-fold</a>. Still, it’s hard to address non-monetary concerns with money, because one side is talking <i>taboo</i>, while the other side is talking <i>tradeoff</i>. But it’s worth trying to make these minds meet; that’s what diplomats are for. With apologies to Churchill, jaw-jaw is good. Indeed, the beginning of bargaining could be a path to the resolution of other international disputes. Around the world, there’s plenty of territory that’s probably better paying for than killing for. </span></p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In fact, the lethality of warfare is ever increasing. That’s not just because of nuclear weapons, but also due to artificial intelligence, which makes possible new agents of mass destruction, from drones to robots to gain-of-functioned viruses. To put it bluntly, dark technological innovation is making the planet more dangerous, and that’s not even including environmental concerns such as climate change. Stepping back on all the dangers confronting Spaceship Earth, Piccionelli espies all the dangerous techno-trends and labels them the “doomsday curve,” which is not curving in a good direction for humanity. So perhaps, as a possible partial solution, we need nuanced political and financial innovation that offers new hope for not only peace, but <i>survival</i>. </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Let’s let Piccionelli have the last word: “A purchase of Taiwan is, first, good for the world order; second, gets the U.S. off the hook for Taiwan’s defense; third, makes China look like a responsible superpower. A win-win-win.” </p>
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<p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">An intriguing argument. Now we’ll have to see what Taiwan, China, —and the rest of the world—make of it. </p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Addendum: I am reminded that I wrote in<a href="https://www.breitbart.com/science/2019/08/18/pinkerton-why-buying-greenland-donald-trump-best-ideas/"> praise</a> of a report that Donald Trump wanted to buy Greenland. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-15379805224585055722022-08-17T19:54:00.009-04:002022-08-18T18:06:01.177-04:00America’s Dilemma: Power Abroad, Weakness at Home—and What to Do About It<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">First of Five Parts</p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdx60z0AIazaWk-vIXxfLiSboh30p9SeB_LYLW6Xx-NQcXTGi2pEY5_zOHgJ9IHkqXOGFHBA6LufUOFEYgaRe0PVdCsP5q1odf6qDrgy0YRwdaq2zdZ1LjGDeimnMTTkOIgfl3xueI76_jWm70VrjahJY7_ySKkX7G9BTUE4p1P4Gt1Nrrdog/s622/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-17%20at%207.53.12%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="622" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdx60z0AIazaWk-vIXxfLiSboh30p9SeB_LYLW6Xx-NQcXTGi2pEY5_zOHgJ9IHkqXOGFHBA6LufUOFEYgaRe0PVdCsP5q1odf6qDrgy0YRwdaq2zdZ1LjGDeimnMTTkOIgfl3xueI76_jWm70VrjahJY7_ySKkX7G9BTUE4p1P4Gt1Nrrdog/w404-h248/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-17%20at%207.53.12%20PM.png" width="404" /></a></div><br /><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Part One: The Power of the Anglosphere</b></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">It’s paradoxical that American soft power—that is, our political and cultural influence around the world—seems never to have been greater, and yet at the same time, America itself seems to be fissured. That is, our politics riven and our population polarized. Over time, this fissuring is assuredly problematic, not only for the sake of our beloved republic, but also for the sake of the free world coalition, which is under dire threat in Ukraine, and, also, to a lesser extent, in Taiwan. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">“Soft power,” of course, is a concept coined by Harvard’s Kennedy School academic, Joseph Nye. He first used the term in his 1990 book, <i>Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power,</i> and then elaborated on it in his 2004 book, <i>Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. </i>As he <a href="https://archive.org/details/softpowermeansto00nyej/page/4/mode/2up">wrote</a>, </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><i></i><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Everyone is familiar with hard power. We know that military and economic might often get others to change their position. Hard power can rest on inducements (“carrots”) or threats (“sticks”). But sometimes you can get the outcomes you want without tangible threats or payoffs. </b></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Applying the same carrot/stick concept to nations, Nye continued, </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>A country may obtain the outcomes it wants in world politics because other countries—admiring its values, emulating its example, aspiring to its level of prosperity and openness—want to follow it. In this sense, it is also important to set the agenda and attract others in world politics, and not only to force them to change by threatening military force or economic sanctions. This soft power—getting others to want the outcomes that you want—co-opts people rather than coerces them. Soft power rests on the ability to shape the preferences of others.</b></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><b></b><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Shaping the preferences of others, for better or worse, is exactly what the U.S. does best. We might consider: Just in the past decade, such distinctly American concepts as Occupy Wall Street, #MeToo, the Green New Deal, and Black Lives Matter have resonated around the world. In 2020, for instance, Keir Starmer, the leader of the British Labour Party, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/black-lives-matter-keir-starmer-labour-take-knee-george-floyd-funeral-a9557166.html">took a knee</a>. Starmer might well be a future prime minister of the United Kingdom; and yet he’s been imitating the gestures of an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBdoDOXMWkg">American football player</a>. We can add that the <i>Dobbs</i> case, reversing <i>Roe v. Wade</i>, was the subject of worldwide commentary, including from <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/french-president-macron-abortion-is-fundamental-right-women-2022-06-24/">heads of state</a>. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Indeed, American memes are so strong that they even regularly infect adversaries; in March 2022, Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin railed against <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/03/25/putin-conservative-cancel-culture/">"cancel culture."</a> (Strange to think that Moscow was once a master of meme-generation, streaming out to the Communist International, but that was then; now, the Russians grope for our memes.) </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Part of American meme-mastery, of course, is American social media. We can ask: Is there any important country in the world that does <i>not</i> have a Twitter account? Is there anyone in the world who does not know about Donald Trump? The yellow hair? The red tie? MAGA? </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">This is all part of the Anglosphere, the quasi-geopolitical notion that the world’s English-speaking peoples are destined for some sort of political unity, as well as cultural unity. In fact, some <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/266808/the-most-spoken-languages-worldwide/">1.5 billion</a> people around the world speak English—that’s about a fifth of the world’s population. However, among the elite, the chattering classes, the percentage of English speakers is surely far higher. So it was that the American journalist <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/business/ben-smith-new-york-times.html">Ben Smith</a> could declare that his forthcoming publication, Semafor, will target these English speakers, wherever they are on the planet. <span style="background-color: white;">“There are 200 million people who are college educated, who read in English, but who no one is really treating like an audience, but who talk to each other and talk to us,” he said. “That’s who we see as our audience.”</span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet the soft power of the Anglosphere is more than just the hegemony of the English language. It’s also the appeal of the Anglo-Saxon idea—or, if one prefers, the <i>liberal</i> idea— of freedom of speech. One needn’t argue that Francis Fukuyama was right about the worldwide “End of History” to nonetheless concede that he was right about the preference of <i>many people.</i> </p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">For many—and by many, I mean <i>billions</i>—this endless give and take that comes with freedom is what makes American debates, cultural as well as political, so exciting. In the most literal sense, you don’t know what’s going to happen next, because there’s no controller and no censor. Whatever comes spewing out of American media, including social media, is whatever people are thinking. And if much if it is unappetizing, there’s always some of it that <i>is</i> appetizing, and there’s always much of it that is compelling. </p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">So we might be reminded of what <a href="https://oll.libertyfund.org/quote/jefferson-s-preference-for-newspapers-without-government-over-government-without-newspapers-1787">Thomas Jefferson</a> wrote from Paris in the 1780s: If he was faced with a choice of “a government without newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.” This endless contention of media not only makes for interesting news consumption (even if it takes some effort to smelt away the dross) it also makes for better governance, as a free press checks and balances the state. This point made by Jefferson, our first secretary of state, was well articulated by the 71st secretary of state, Antony Blinken. On March 18, 2021, in an impromptu debate with the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, Blinken <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/here-are-the-highlights-from-the-heated-us-china-exchange-in-alaska.html">declared</a></span></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>. . . t</b></span><b>here’s one more hallmark of our leadership here at home and that’s a constant quest to as we say, form a more perfect union. And that quest, by definition, acknowledges our imperfections, acknowledges that we’re not perfect. We make mistakes. We have reversals, we take steps back. But what we’ve done throughout our history is to confront those challenges, openly, publicly, transparently. Not trying to ignore them. Not trying to pretend they don’t exist. Not trying to sweep them under the rug. And sometimes it’s painful. Sometimes it’s ugly. But each and every time we’ve come out stronger, better, more united, as a country.</b></p><p style="color: #094fd1; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 22px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Fact check: True. <i>At least for most of U.S. history.</i> Yet today, many argue that “disinformation” is such a threat that something must be done, such as Sovietly named—and mercifully short-lived—Disinformation Governance Board. Yet whatever the U.S. government does, or doesn’t do, about “disinformation,” there are easily a hundred, if not a thousand, non-profits, all monitoring, analyzing, and warning against “disinformation.” Of course, as a reminder of the power of the Anglosphere, one can go to the internet and google (two more agents of the Anglosphere) and read all about it. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Of course, a Google search for “civil war” and associated concepts will yield up a gazillion hits. And it’s hard not to agree with at least some of the concerns about the future of our union. As <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-peril-and-promise-of-austro-america/">I wrote</a> in March for <i>The American Conservative</i>, “The United States has all the preconditions for a civil war today except one: the willingness to actually fight for the sake of disunity.” I still think that’s true, even if I’m a little less sure about the unwillingness to actually fight. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So this is the dilemma of American power: Around the world, the Anglosphere is robust, and yet here at home, America is deeply divided. So can this divided house still stand?</p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">This question is likely to be sharpened if America continues to show success in Ukraine. As of mid-August, it seems that Western military aid is so enhancing the courage of the Ukrainian armed forces that it’s possible, maybe probable, that Ukraine will fight Russia to some kind of draw. A Korean-style stalemate seems likely—and given the early expectations of a swift Russian victory, that’s a comparatively positive outcome. To be sure, it’s tragic to think that Russia will hold on to a single acre of Ukrainian territory, and yet the good news is that Ukraine is now firmly anchored in the West. At this rate, it will soon be obsolete to speak of Russia’s implied dominion over Ukraine, just as it is anachronistic to speak of Japan’s dominion over Manchuria, or of Britain’s dominion over Palestine. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So that’s the good news: The perimeter of the Free World has been expanded, with Ukraine firmly within the perimeter. As has long been the case, the perimeter of freedom is mostly safeguarded by the hard power the American military, bolstered and amplified by American soft power. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet the bad news is the aforementioned weakness at home. The fierce debate over the legal issues surrounding Donald Trump are likely enough to resolve themselves soon enough—the American legal system may move slowly, but it grinds hard—and yet the deeper conflicts of geography and demography are likely to remain, and that could undercut our hard power, and maybe even our soft power. As I argued in that <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-peril-and-promise-of-austro-america/">March piece</a>, red vs. blue could be the new Austria and Hungary. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br />
But I’m getting ahead of myself. My only point now, in part one of this four-part series, is to emphasize the strangeness of our situation: Our soft power abroad is manifest, and yet our soft underbelly at home is obvious. So it’s useful to explore how past realms managed their soft power. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Next in Part Two: How the Romans wielded soft power. </p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">(Picture credit: Wikipedia) </p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-32084119683627753182022-05-05T15:10:00.002-04:002022-05-05T15:19:08.513-04:00 A Vindication of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn—From an Unexpected Source<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjw-lgecGwmi3WrdiHLk_zEaYVWJmMfg7Y1Z7dlssFVQI3UCU7mtVw-zP1hXnov-a2Un3SN9sjgwVZ3fxV1OhZvQpEJWmmKiMzyKP9-HzOtKoWmqDay5bUm6-_wTKMqwTz1P-_uCFOqK08hhzi5A6m-kZeDceH9QSPqIk4FjmjeyA5Jqz79kLo" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1587" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjw-lgecGwmi3WrdiHLk_zEaYVWJmMfg7Y1Z7dlssFVQI3UCU7mtVw-zP1hXnov-a2Un3SN9sjgwVZ3fxV1OhZvQpEJWmmKiMzyKP9-HzOtKoWmqDay5bUm6-_wTKMqwTz1P-_uCFOqK08hhzi5A6m-kZeDceH9QSPqIk4FjmjeyA5Jqz79kLo" width="242" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">At a time when everything Russian is being </span><a href="https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/tchaikovsky-cats-and-vodka-have-boycotts-of-russia-gone-too-far-55514" style="text-align: left;">canceled</a><span style="text-align: left;">—from the Bolshoi to vodka to the music of Tchaikovsky, who died in 1893—the May 12 </span><a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2022/05/12/what-solzhenitsyn-understood-march-1917-between-two-millstones/" style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: blue;">issue</span></a><span style="text-align: left;"> of </span><i style="text-align: left;">The New York Review of Books</i><span style="text-align: left;"> provides a welcome respite to indiscriminate and anachronistic Russophobia.</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">Gary Saul Morson, a professor of Slavic literature at Northwestern University, reviews two new translations from among Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s many published works: </span><i style="text-align: left;">March 1917: The Red Wheel</i><span style="text-align: left;">, and </span><i style="text-align: left;">Between Two Millstones: Exile in America, 1978-1994</i><span style="text-align: left;">, both bravely published by the </span><a href="https://undpress.nd.edu/solzhenitsyn/" style="text-align: left;">University of Notre Dame</a><span style="text-align: left;">.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Morson’s ultimate point is that Solzhenitsyn was simultaneously political and anti-political. The Russian author (1918-2008), was honored with the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/literature/1970/summary/">Nobel Prize</a> in 1970 “for the ethical force with which he has pursued the indispensable traditions of Russian literature.” And yet his most famous volume is non-fiction, <i>The Gulag Archipelago</i>, published in English in 1974. That was the title that rocked the world of this American Baby Boomer, who had previously been schooled mostly in liberal-left dogma about the moral equivalence of the United States and the Soviet Union—except, of course, when “Amerika” was said to be worse. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So sure, when necessary, Solzhenitsyn, himself a survivor of the Gulag—as a decorated Red Army officer fighting the Nazis, he was arrested in 1945 and imprisoned for eight years for the offense of cryptically critical comments about Stalin—could be political. If, that is, by “political” we mean standing up for human dignity. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">At the same time, Morson emphasizes that Solzhenitsyn was firstly a spiritual man who wrote, “Political activity is by no means the principal mode of human life . . . The more energetic the political activity in a country, the greater is the loss to spiritual life. Politics must not swallow up all of a people’s spiritual and creative energies. Beyond upholding its <i>rights</i>, mankind must defend its soul.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Yet in recent decades Solzhenitsyn’s reputation has been besmirched by accusations of anti-Semitism and also, in strange posthumous way, by his identity as a Russian Orthodox Christian, which has put him, in the minds of some, in the same pot with the odious (and hypocritically sacrilegious) Vladimir Putin. Both accusations, according to Morson, are unfair. He writes of the first, “The charge of anti-Semitism particularly offended Solzhenitsyn, who, as some critics conceded, defended Jewish dissidents and the right of Jews to emigrate in order to avoid religious and other persecution in the USSR.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Solzhenitsyn was also political insofar as he was an ardent anti-Communist. Notably, he lamented the failure of meliorative monarchism to stave off the red tide. In Solzhenitsyn’s telling, the event that canted Russia to perdition came in 1911, when Pytor Stolypin, the reformist prime minister of Tsar Nicholas II, was assassinated. And the assassin happened to be Jewish. As Solzhenitsyn argued, in the absence of reform from above, the Bolsheviks—led by the gentile Lenin—could plot revolution from below. In Solzhenitsyn’s words, “Russia and Communism had the same relationship as a sick man and his disease.”</p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And Morson makes clear that the other charge—that Solzhenitsyn shares psychic space with the murderous nationalism of Putin and his bearded Russian Orthodox “Rasputin,” <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin">Aleksandr Dugin</a>—is equally absurd. In fact, Solzhenitsyn was the opposite of a nationalist: “Nationalism, as we usually envisage it, appalled him.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Morson adds that three decades ago, Solzhenitsyn urged Russians not to object to the breakup of the Soviet Union. In particular, he was happy to see the non-Slavic parts of the fallen evil empire go their own way. And while he might have wished that the Slavic lands of Belarus and Ukraine would have remained with Russia, he thought it was their right to declare independence. Writes Morson: “Foreseeing the conflicts likely to arise eventually if Ukraine, with its large Russian-speaking population and its close cultural ties to Russia, chose to secede, Solzhenitsyn, who considered himself both Russian and Ukrainian, hoped to preclude the devastating conflict we see today.” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Morson dwells upon the self-descriptively apt title of one of Solzhenitsyn’s books, <i>Between Two Millstones</i>; the two millstones being communism and liberalism. So Solzhenitsyn, being more mystical than political, resembles another Russian writer, Leo Tolstoy (1828-1910). In his time, Tolstoy—best known for his novel <i>War and Peace</i>, with he himself being a pacifist—was equally hard to peg into familiar categories. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Today, it’s heartening to see such nuance—Solzhenitsyn being shown as an exemplar of a distinct strain of Russian thinking and creating, far apart from Russo-Bolshevik barbarism—in the pages of <i>The New York Review of Books</i>. The tome-y publication, founded in 1963, is certainly on the left, and yet it’s not in the least woke: the same May 12 issue includes admiring reviews of books on the sculptor Bernini, the painter David, and art audiences in 19th century France. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So by that reckoning, perhaps @nybooks is finding itself sliding to the right. After all, by regarding the canon as something worth remembering, it is <i>defending</i> the canon—and thus the defender is on the other side of the barricade from the attacking zero-year iconoclasts. So make room, cultural conservatives; some new recruits are heading our way, however reluctantly. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Interestingly, in his historical novel <i>March 1917</i>, Solzhenitsyn is unsparing in his critique of proto-woke public officials, namely the liberal Russians who took office after Tsar Nicholas II abdicated. These weak men could not bring themselves to defend their office, their country, or their civilization against marauders—first, common criminals, and soon, the Bolsheviks. Hence the historical figure <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgy_Lvov">Prince Lvov</a>, who served for a few months as the first prime minister of post-tsarist Russia, says to his colleagues, “Why does a free state need police at all?” Such naiveté has a short life expectancy. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Morson doesn’t mention it, but such mush-headed liberalism echoes that of the Hungarian <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mih%C3%A1ly_K%C3%A1rolyi"><span style="color: blue;">Mihály Károlyi</span></a>, who misruled Hungary at around the same time. Like Lvov, Károlyi drew the wrong lesson from World War One, namely that nothing was worth defending. And so Károlyi abolished the army, leaving his country to be overrun by foreigners; moreover, Károlyi’s weakness made it possible for the communist Béla Kun to seize power in Budapest for a brief but bloody epoch of red terror. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">So we can see: In both instances, Russia and Hungary, easy-on-evil libertarianism allowed the absolute worst forces to triumph. And <i>that’s</i> certainly a warning message that Americans need to hear. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Solzhenitsyn’s faith gave him a keen apprehension of wickedness. “Evil refuses to know the truth,” says one of his characters. “Evil people usually know better than anybody else just what they are doing. And go on doing it.” No society-is-to-blame relativism here. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Still, Solzhenitsyn sought more than just outward good behavior, important as that was. He wanted a deeper inward search for the good. Morson closes by quoting Solzhenitsyn’s warning against the siren call of secular utopianism: “How could you remake the world if you couldn’t figure out your own soul?” </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Such wisdom is timeless. And so we can hope, and maybe pray, that Solzhenitsyn’s voice will be heard in Russia, long after Putinism is consigned to the ash heap of history. And come to think of it, there are a few world-girdling systems in the West that could benefit from the same graced humility. </p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 18px;"><br /></p>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-269586995465366592021-05-22T21:33:00.009-04:002021-05-23T15:26:01.078-04:00The Problem with Joe Biden’s Middle East Cease-fire: Lessons from Clausewitz<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel and the Biden Administration’s “New Ideas”</span></b></p><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Main Stream Media has been admiring of the Biden administration’s decision to broker—some would say <i>impose</i>—a cease-fire on the state of Israel and the terror group Hamas. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">For instance, on May 21, shortly after the cease-fire, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hour-by-hour-bidens-behind-the-scenes-push-for-cease-fire/2021/05/21/4f8a89d2-b9f5-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html">Associated Press</a> ran a story headlined, “Hour-by-hour: Biden’s behind-the-scenes push for cease-fire.” The reporter, Aamer Madhani, was obviously well briefed by Biden aides, and so in addition to describing phone calls between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the AP story added such nuggets as, “The president and senior aides had over 80 engagements, by phone or in person, in search of an endgame to the fighting.”</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">That same upbeat assessment—Biden and his team, hard at work—was manifest in a May 21 opinion piece by <i>The Washington Post</i>’s well-connected columnist, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/21/biden-learned-his-predecessors-mistakes-middle-east-probably-saved-lives/">David Ignatius</a>. He, too, was amply backgrounded by Biden aides, and so he could faithfully describe how the president operated “slowly, quietly, in personal conversations.” Ignatius’ admiring take was that Biden’s approach “probably saved lives.” </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Venturing further, from play-by-play to prescription, the <i>Post</i> man added that Gaza now needed “humanitarian assistance” in the short term, as well as, in the longer term, some sort of new political configuration: “Perhaps the trickiest part will be strengthening the Palestinian Authority, ideally through a unity government with a Hamas that agrees to accept Israel and renounce violence.” </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Some would say that it will be, er, <i>tricky</i> to persuade Hamas to accept Israel’s right to exist—as the rejection of that right is the essence of the Hamas worldview. And as for unity with the Palestinian Authority, it’s worth recalling that Hamas <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict">split off</a>, violently, from that same PA in 2007; that’s how Hamas ended up ruling the Gaza Strip. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Nevertheless, hope springs eternal in MSM breasts; ah, for the fond dream of fresh diplomacy. Thus on May 21, <i>The New York Times</i> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/21/opinion/ceasefire-israel-palestinian-territories.html">editorial page</a> pronounced itself pleased with the cease-fire, adding that it “didn’t come a second too soon.” Then the editorial added that “new ideas” for the region were needed. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And what might those “new ideas” be? From the editorial: “The Biden administration should appoint an envoy to the Palestinian people, tasked with restoring relations with Palestinian officials and building ties with civil society groups and the new generation of leaders who have been shut out of power with the lack of elections. The portfolio should include Palestinian people, broadly speaking, including their vital ties to brethren in Israel and throughout the diaspora.”</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There’s plenty to unpack there, but we can see, at minimum, the <i>Times</i> envisions an ambitious role for the U.S., bidding it to become much more deeply involved on the Palestinian side. That’s a change, of course, from the policy of the Trump administration, which was strongly pro-Israel and mostly ignored Palestinian demands. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Indeed, we might speculate that one reason the <i>Times</i> is so in love with the idea of a new direction in the Middle East is precisely <i>because</i> of the contrast it makes with the ideas of the Dreaded Trump. And of course, the major media, joined by the Biden administration and many Democrats, are not at all fond of Netanyahu. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So any new American activism, as advocated by Ignatius, the <i>Times</i>, and many other leading voices, would amount to a mandate to the Biden administration to play a more activist role in the region, bringing new energy, and new empathy, to the Palestinian cause. Not surprisingly, the Palestinians would welcome such a démarche, while <i>un</i>surprisingly, most Israelis would not. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In fact, the Biden administration is already bringing its different perspective to the Middle East. One vivid indicator of the change came on May 20, when Biden spent <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/eight-minutes-with-the-president-rep-rashida-tlaib-the-lone-palestinian-american-in-congress-gains-relevance-in-israel-debate/2021/05/20/fe3139c6-b8c5-11eb-bb84-6b92dedcd8ed_story.html">eight minutes</a> talking with Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the radical Democrat from Michigan. The conversation was held outdoors, on an airport tarmac, in full view of reporters and their cameras. Such extended “photo ops” with presidents do not happen by chance. In other words, Biden was sending a strong signal: He is listening to pro-Palestinian voices. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2021/05/21/rhodes-aocs-position-on-israel-the-overton-window-shifting-more-vocal-pressure-from-left-on-israel-than-under-obama/">Ben Rhodes</a></span>, former deputy national security adviser under Barack Obama, has also noted the change. Singling out the pro-Palestinian efforts of another Democrat in the House, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rhodes said, “The Overton window [is] shifting before your eyes.” That is, the window of possible policy options. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Continuing, Rhodes said, “It’s just simply a fact that there was never this kind of pressure vocally from the left on issues related to Israel during the Obama years.” And he concluded, “It’s going to be harder to just stick to the old line of essentially unquestioning support for the policies of the Israeli government.” </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yet if the predominantly center-left American foreign policy establishment is pleased with Biden’s shift, many Israelis are not. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">That displeasure was made clear in another <i>Times</i> story, datelined, Ashkelon, Israel, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/21/world/middleeast/israel-ceasefire-gaza-hamas.html">headlined</a>, “‘The Mission Wasn’t Completed.’ Cease-Fire Prompts Israelis’ Disappointment.” As the two reporters, Isabel Kershner and Adam Rasgon, explained, “Here, and across Israel, there were other common sentiments: a nagging sense of disappointment that nothing had been resolved by the fighting, and concern that the truce was fragile and premature. Instead, many Israelis said that the military should have carried on pounding Hamas for another week or two.” </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Moroever, the reporters noted that “shared dissatisfaction throughout the country signaled Israelis’ growing impatience with what they see as hastily arranged, unconditional cease-fires. Each successive, inconclusive round of conflict has only added to the sense of futility, with no decisive victory or conclusion in sight.” And the article pointed to a May 20 poll, showing that 72 percent of Israelis thought the air campaign in Gaza should continue, whereas 24 percent said Israel should agree to a cease-fire. In other words, by a 3:1 margin, Israelis <i>opposed</i> the cease-fire. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So we can see: The gulf between the D.C. establishment and the Israeli public is wide. And it seems reasonable to assume that any Israeli government is going to reflect the nation’s public opinion. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">What Would Clausewitz Say?</span></b></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">As we wait to see what happens next on the ground, we might, in the meantime, consult a classic work.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And that work is <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1946/1946-h/1946-h.htm"><i>On War</i></a>, written by the Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831). Clausewitz never opined on Israel and the Middle East, but he did have a lot to say about how nations and groups fight one another, and how they might expect to prevail. And despite all the changes in war tactics and technology over the last two centuries, Clausewitz endures, because his ultimate wisdom is <i>psychological</i> and <i>political</i>, as opposed to tactical and technological.</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Clausewitz’s most famous dictum is, “War is only a continuation of State policy by other means.” </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To put that another way, <i>War exists within politics</i>. Wars are started by political figures, and they are fought so long as political figures wish to keep fighting. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To put that another way, victories on the battlefield, while certainly important, are not decisive in winning a war. What <i>is</i> decisive is the moment, if it comes, when one side loses the will to fight. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And as of now, it doesn’t appear that Hamas has lost its will to fight. Hence this <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/21/hamas-claims-victory-as-gaza-celebrates-ceasefire">headline</a> in Al Jazeera: “Hamas claims victory as Gaza celebrates cease-fire.” The point here is not to suggest that Hamas won the 11-day battle in any military sense; clearly, it did not. Instead, we see that Hamas does not <i>feel</i> defeated. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In the defiant words of Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif al-Qanou, “Israel has withdrawn in the face of the armed resistance, and did not obtain any of its objectives it said it would when it launched its offensive.” By these words, in the Clausewitzian sense, Hamas definitely has not been defeated. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To be sure, if Hamas had been <i>totally</i> annihilated, a continued fighting spirit might be seen as delusional, or even, in a grim way, mirthful, as in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A86wo12na8M">bloody confrontation with the Black Knight</a> in the 1975 film, <i>Monty Python and the Holy Grail</i>. And yet Hamas was <i>not</i> annihilated—the May 21 cease-fire made sure of that. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yes, Hamas has been bloodied, maybe even devastated, but it is still a force. As <i>The Washington Post</i> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/21/hamas-israel-gaza-war-victory/">reported</a>, “For Hamas, Israel may have once again inflicted heavy losses—both on the movement and on civilians in Gaza—but the group remains in control of the territory of some 2 million people and little has fundamentally changed.”</span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">By this reckoning, those citizens of Israel who told the <i>Times</i> reporters that their military needed more time to finish the job were making a good point. Hamas is still in charge in Gaza, and still has the will to fight. We can note that such is often the case with guerrilla wars and asymmetric combats: One sides wins big, but not big enough, and so the fighting continues. [Update: a <a href="https://twitter.com/DanWilliams/status/1396514243164483584">May 23 poll</a> asked Israelis, Who won the cross-border fighting? And the answer: 28 percent said Israel, 16 percent said Hamas, and 52 percent said neither side. Not a result sure to dishearten Hamas.] </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So perhaps this is the lens—the <i>Clausewitizian</i> lens—through which we should see the May 21 cease-fire. </span></p>
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<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">That is, Hamas has plenty of fighting spirit, and still rules Gaza. And now, we might presume, humanitarian aid will come flowing into that territory, much of it, no doubt, to be skimmed off by Hamas. And quite likely, too, more armaments will flow in, most of them, apparently, from Iran.<br />
</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So in such a context, we can ask: How long until the next violent eruption? How long till the next Hamas rocket attack? </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In the meantime, Israel is in a difficult position. Having been flailed by much of the Western media during the recent fighting, and criticized by the Biden administration, the Israelis will likely find themselves having to abide, strictly, to the terms of the cease-fire. Which is to say, it will likely take a <i>significant</i> provocation by Hamas to embolden Israel to even <i>think</i> about suspending the cease-fire and launching a pre-emptive strike—assuming, of course, that the IDF can detect the danger. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yet Hamas, operating under few, if any, of those political constraints, can pick and choose its next time to strike. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus we something that’s familiar to Middle East observers:<i> a double standard</i>. That is, if Israel breaks the cease-fire, it is in trouble with the Biden administration, as well as the United Nations, noisy NGOs, and all the other usual critics. And yet if <i>Hamas</i> breaks the cease-fire, the Biden administration, joined by the others, will likely rush in to seek a <i>new</i> cease-fire, and then, after that, come rushing in with humanitarian aid—and that aid is, of course, <i>fungible</i>. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So we are now seeing a new kind of asymmetry: Hamas plots and ponders the timing of its next attack, while the Israelis must live with the constant threat of that next attack. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To be sure, Israel has its Iron Dome defense system, and it worked well these past few weeks—and yet not quite well enough, as twelve Israelis died in the bombardment, and considerable property damage was done. It’s hard to enjoy the fruits of high-tech prosperity while staying mindful of the location of the nearest bomb shelter.</span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">No doubt, Israel is further refining Iron Dome and perhaps considering other kinds of defensive shields. And no doubt, too, Hamas and its backers are refining their offensive capabilities. (And we can be sure that to Israel's north, in Lebanon, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/sidelines-hezbollah-looms-large-over-063313893.html">Hezbollah</a>, which has its own rocket arsenal, is paying close attention to Israeli capabilities.) So who will have the upper hand? We’ll likely find out in the next round of fighting. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Strategic Depth</span></b></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b></b><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">Another problem for Israel is that Hamas has </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: large;">strategic depth.</i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> That is, Hamas has a big ally, Iran, that offers it a source of support and supply, if not quite actual refuge. (To a lesser extent, Hamas can also count on support from Qatar, which does provide a physical refuge to Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh</span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(18, 18, 18); color: #121212; font-family: "PT Serif", serif;">.</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">)</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And so long as Hamas has the Islamic Republic for strategic depth, then Israel has a problem. That is, Israel can “mow the lawn,” as some say, of Hamas in Gaza, and yet it must be resigned to the reality that the “grass”—more like a deadly weed—keeps growing back. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This challenging situation is contingent, of course, upon the Iranians’ willingness to keep supplying Hamas, and if no effective way can be found to quarantine Gaza from new weapons shipments. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And at this point, some might find parallels between the Israeli confrontation with Hamas and the U.S. confrontation with Vietnam, from 1965-1975. That war, of course, ended in disappointment for the side that won all the battles during the actual fighting—and in victory for the side that lost all the battles. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yes, without a doubt, during the Vietnam fighting, the U.S. was routinely victorious on the battlefield, albeit not without cost to itself. And yet the North Vietnamese could receive supplies from, and gain diplomatic support from, the adjacent People’s Republic of China (in addition, another patron, the Soviet Union, was adjacent to China). And that help was enough to sustain North Vietnam to ultimate victory, battlefield defeats notwithstanding. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To be sure, there are enormous differences between the U.S. then and Israel today: Most obviously, a) Israel is <i>much</i> more committed to its border security than the U.S. ever was to combating the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/domino-theory">“domino theory”</a> a half-century ago; b) Israeli public opinion is solidly supportive of the Gaza effort, seeing it an an existential issue for the nation; that’s something no American ever thought about Vietnam; and c) Gaza and Iran, and Qatar, are not adjacent. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yet nevertheless, some similarities present themselves: <i>Iran is an ally of Hamas, and it does provide it with strategic depth. </i></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So now, what can Israel do? If it can’t find a way to shut down the direct threat from Hamas—and the Biden administration seems to be the chief obstacle now to further attempts to shut it down—then Israel will have to consider what it can do to take away Hamas’s strategic depth, mostly, as we have seen, Iran. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">We might recall that such strategic-depth neutralization was the tack taken by U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1972, as he sought to secure “peace with honor” in Vietnam. Realizing that the North Vietnamese were never going to give up—and thus, never going to lose, no matter how painful their losses—so long as they had the depth of China and Russia, Nixon traveled to the capitals of both of those countries and made a deal: The U.S. would have free rein to cut off, finally, North Vietnam’s northward supply chain, and, while it did so, the Chinese and Russians would do nothing, militarily or diplomatically, to get in Uncle Sam’s way. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">As a result, Nixon was able to launch the Christmas bombing of 1972, and that onslaught against the suddenly isolated North Vietnamese finally persuaded the country to agree to end the war on terms acceptable to the U.S.—at least for a <a href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/nixon-kissinger-and-the-decent-interval">“decent interval.”</a> </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Of course, at this moment today, it’s impossible to imagine the Israelis and Iranians reaching any sort of bargain that would isolate Hamas, in the way that Nixon isolated North Vietnam. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And so, barring some miraculous change of heart in Tehran—or some crafty calculation that we can’t now foresee—that leaves another option, which is some strong Israeli action (kinetic, cyber, whatever) that would be so devastating as to force the Iranians to reconsider their patronage of Hamas. (Or, perhaps, on Haniyeh in Qatar.) Admittedly, it’s hard—although not impossible—to imagine such strikes. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So perhaps what’s needed is to look to <i>Iran’s</i> strategic depth, which consists, of course, of the countries of Russia and China. Yes, it’s the looming presence of those two powers that has made Israel—and, in the past, the U.S.—shy away from overt military action against Iran. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yes, these are mega grand-strategic questions: Could the cord between Russia/China and Iran be broken? Or could the connection between Hamas and Iran/Qatar be broken? If so, by sticks? Or even, somehow, by carrots? </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In the meantime, this much is easy to see: The Israels are in a quandary. As Clausewitz would say if he were following Mideast news, unless and until Hamas’ psychological and political thinking changes, mere military defeat will not change the terror group’s current course. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And of course, the Biden administration isn’t helping—at least, it’s not helping <i>Israel</i>. Instead, this administration seems more attuned to the bad optics of internationally televised violence, and how to switch it off. And if, along the way, Netanyahu gets switched off, all the better. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus we can see: Biden administration policies will likely have no affect on Hamas’ thinking. Indeed, post-cease-fire, Hamas now stands to be rewarded by the “international community” with billions in new aid pouring into Gaza, as well as, perhaps, by new diplomatic initiatives that would likely raise Hamas' stature. </span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: medium;">We might add that renewed diplomatic efforts might include some new effort at international mediation, including, perhaps, the presence of U.N. peacekeepers. But the U.N. has been attempting to keep the peace in the area since 1948, and the results speak for themselves. History shows that at best, the peacekeepers are spectators, and at worst, they end up collaborating with the anti-Israel side; that is, the side with the most member-countries in the U.N.</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">No wonder, in Clausewitzian terms, Hamas feels that it’s doing just fine. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Israel has proven it can win the fighting, and yet, given the current correlation of international forces, it can’t win the long struggle. </span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Victory in that long struggle—to find a secure place among the nations—will require some Clausewitzian mojo, applied sternly to foes, and gently to friends. </span></p></div><div><br /></div>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-58777671863872635542017-03-11T09:59:00.001-05:002017-03-11T09:59:09.823-05:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/a-deus-ex-machina-for-the-climate-change-problem/">"A Deus ex Machina for the Climate Change Problem"</a>--my piece in <i>American Conservative</i> on the need for a more ambitious carbon-capture program.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnKp5dldirmVwPm6mU_econaeGr1FqGbXiqF1EMGT-svClwE6SkUjhhkEZPG9BcyLxalSqBsozBa1T1lJ7nvlcNsPdWcAEjXPxLxmTi51_7Akj3LxoIQZEjUAvM1uwkYYIYe5w6A/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-03-11+at+9.56.23+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnKp5dldirmVwPm6mU_econaeGr1FqGbXiqF1EMGT-svClwE6SkUjhhkEZPG9BcyLxalSqBsozBa1T1lJ7nvlcNsPdWcAEjXPxLxmTi51_7Akj3LxoIQZEjUAvM1uwkYYIYe5w6A/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-03-11+at+9.56.23+AM.png" width="545" /></a></div>
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James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-35431654717185685302017-02-28T14:26:00.000-05:002017-02-28T16:32:24.376-05:00Bollards and other Barriers: The Value of Passive Defenses in Homeland Security <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The news is relentlessly sad: cars running over pedestrians, in <a href="http://bit.ly/2l8jt5f">Alabama</a>, and in <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/02/26/police-car-plows-into-parade-crowd-in-new-orleans-28-injured-and-suspect-in-custody.html">Louisiana</a>--and that's just in the past few days. Whether the perpetrators are drunks, psychos, terrorists--or someone who has lethally lost his or her wits and shouldn't be driving--that doesn't make much difference at the moment when tons of steel comes crashing down on innocent people. <br />
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In the wake of the truck-attack in Nice, France, I wrote about the value of passive defense for <i>Breitbart</i> last summer, <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/07/16/homeland-security-in-the-age-of-truck-attacks-the-once-and-future-fortress/">here</a>, and <a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/07/17/the-new-arms-race-cops-vs-criminals-lets-use-our-brains-to-make-sure-that-civilization-wins/%20%C2%A0">here</a>.<br />
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The barriers could be static, active, or even self-aware. But we need to do something.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwY0iJ-b0p1rNwpvotUohCKYZ3fQktvWBt1Npeu3d6u8OpFUIIZCMfi_nlKIqfGnFmn_49gvgRMaS9nb8xHJ_lvkDbUjnCwOMVoRKXt5IJamqDTgrzN7LEujzYTFTJWr2O6xV4Fw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-02-28+at+2.23.03+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwY0iJ-b0p1rNwpvotUohCKYZ3fQktvWBt1Npeu3d6u8OpFUIIZCMfi_nlKIqfGnFmn_49gvgRMaS9nb8xHJ_lvkDbUjnCwOMVoRKXt5IJamqDTgrzN7LEujzYTFTJWr2O6xV4Fw/s400/Screen+Shot+2017-02-28+at+2.23.03+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-11828227594772993642017-02-27T08:53:00.001-05:002017-02-27T09:09:14.483-05:00Carbon Capture as a solution--perhaps THE solution--to Climate Change<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4q7hwTk27CB_AFQjtTjUjSq9QvJIfChpPH5H3PuIfI4R18IZT5aOxSZl_M5nwMglpfjCx_LODCgTcsC4gBmMi7lI0KV3e-IgQU3B1c4geMG6K6B5vnSgwfPZkzJt7_KUO9zeI7g/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-02-27+at+8.43.20+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4q7hwTk27CB_AFQjtTjUjSq9QvJIfChpPH5H3PuIfI4R18IZT5aOxSZl_M5nwMglpfjCx_LODCgTcsC4gBmMi7lI0KV3e-IgQU3B1c4geMG6K6B5vnSgwfPZkzJt7_KUO9zeI7g/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-02-27+at+8.43.20+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This is a screen-grab from a video produced by <a href="http://carbonengineering.com/">Carbon Engineering</a>, a British Columbia-based company which promises "industrial scale capture of CO2 from ambient air." <a href="http://carbonengineering.com/updates/">Bill Gates</a> is an investor.<br />
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From a non-scientific political perspective, I have written about this idea in the past: I<span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "times new roman";">n</span><a href="http://www.spectator.co.uk/2012/11/americas-carbon-clash/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(43, 44, 48); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"> 2012</span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "times new roman";">, in </span><a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2014/04/19/cliven-bundy-and-the-origins-of-the-american-abundance-revolution/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(43, 44, 48); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">2014</span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "times new roman";">, in </span><a href="http://www.breitbart.com/california/2015/04/07/how-the-west-was-won-in-2018-looking-back-on-californias-republican-victory/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(43, 44, 48); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">2015</span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "times new roman";">, in </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman";"><a href="http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/07/17/the-new-arms-race-cops-vs-criminals-lets-use-our-brains-to-make-sure-that-civilization-wins/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(43, 44, 48); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman';">2016</a>, and then again </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "times new roman";">in </span><a href="http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/06/15/winning-war-islamocommunism/" style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(43, 44, 48); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">2016</span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "times new roman";">.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2c30; font-family: "times new roman";"> </span><br />
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James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-32610650122494113572014-03-11T14:18:00.000-04:002014-03-11T14:18:27.777-04:00Republican Electoral Vote, 1932-2012<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk97coXg0eN0COZ2BrFfhwI51NikvHwbcsb0vclitZLZCSES72LSzszypwxcXeKkeW0owtBiWfCvvAXfsAWXHYfk9HejBXT7j6Y-vruQ5JcyJ0pquetsOEhV5q7hUZ6mPrxcGFDg/s1600/Electoral+College,+1932-2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk97coXg0eN0COZ2BrFfhwI51NikvHwbcsb0vclitZLZCSES72LSzszypwxcXeKkeW0owtBiWfCvvAXfsAWXHYfk9HejBXT7j6Y-vruQ5JcyJ0pquetsOEhV5q7hUZ6mPrxcGFDg/s1600/Electoral+College,+1932-2012.png" height="280" width="400" /></a></div>
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James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-15973665654084005192012-07-22T19:08:00.000-04:002012-07-22T19:08:04.234-04:00For Transovation -- Two Hamiltonian Articles<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/obama-and-the-american-system-who-built-what/">President Obama and the "American System."</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hamilton-shrugged/">"Hamilton Shrugged"</a>--my review of Mike Lind's <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Land-Promise-Economic-History-United/dp/0061834807">Land of Promise</a></i>.</div>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6920721.post-89959633789248828432011-10-09T14:00:00.004-04:002011-10-09T14:07:59.169-04:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Serious Medicine Crash--update<br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2RP_4x-1216Bx601jAQKXq3RVm7_SLRhq3aptXIylNtqKRLqL4X_9BSwDsn-HQAqcdkI3LUNF16kNQbdahqI27AgDeoeEr65YHYV2FGiILzdBwCbQY8XuFMSY4hgr84XdzDVh8Q/s1600/Screen+Shot+2011-10-09+at+1.56.08+PM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="100" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2RP_4x-1216Bx601jAQKXq3RVm7_SLRhq3aptXIylNtqKRLqL4X_9BSwDsn-HQAqcdkI3LUNF16kNQbdahqI27AgDeoeEr65YHYV2FGiILzdBwCbQY8XuFMSY4hgr84XdzDVh8Q/s400/Screen+Shot+2011-10-09+at+1.56.08+PM.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br />
<div class="p1"><span class="s1">According to the Medical Innovation & Competitiveness Coalition, a unit of the National Venture Capital Association, <a href="http://medic.nvca.org/news-and-info.html"><span class="s2">medical investment is dramatically falling off</span></a>: </span><br />
<span class="s1"><br />
</span></div><div class="p2"><span class="s1"></span></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>The survey found that U.S. venture capital firms have been decreasing their investment in biopharmaceutical and medical device companies over the past three years and expect to further curtail such investment in the future. Overall 39 percent of respondent firms have decreased their investments in </b></span><b>life sciences companies over the last three years and the same percentage expect to further decrease these investments over the next three years, some by greater than 30 percent. This is roughly twice the number of firms that have increased and/or expect to increase investment.</b><br />
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</b></div><div class="p2"><span class="s1"></span></div><div class="p2"><span class="s1"></span></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>While 40 and 42 percent of firms expect to decrease investment in biopharmaceutical and medical device companies respectively, 42 and 54 percent expect to increase their investment in non-FDA regulated healthcare services and healthcare information technology companies respectively.</b></span><br />
<span class="s1"><b><br />
</b></span></div><div class="p2"><span class="s1"></span></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>In another alarming sign, survey respondents expect to see significant investment decreases in companies fighting serious and highly prevalent conditions including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, cancer, and neurological diseases.</b></span><br />
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</b></span></div><div class="p2"><span class="s1"></span></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>“More than 100 million Americans suffer from diseases for which there are still no cures, or even meaningful therapeutic options. To conquer disease and relieve suffering, we must have a medical innovation pipeline that is as strong and robust as possible,” said Margaret Anderson, executive director, <i>FasterCures. </i>“Bringing critical therapies to market requires venture capital investment to spur a thriving life sciences industry as well as having a regulatory system that’s appropriately resourced and equipped to ensure innovation is translated to better health.” </b></span><br />
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</b></span></div><div class="p2"><span class="s1"></span></div><div class="p1"><span class="s1">H/T: Manhattan Institute's Medical Progress Today</span></div></div></div>James P. Pinkertonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06914344842339708576noreply@blogger.com2